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Oil Shock Hits An Economy Already Showing Cracks

March 14, 2026 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Oil shocks are bad for economic growth and bad for inflation. So it can be worrisome when they land when growth is already middling and inflation stubborn,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Which, unfortunately, is exactly what is happening.”

“A slew of data released Friday portrayed an economy showing cracks, from weaker household spending to cooler consumer sentiment and higher inflation. Higher oil prices, which are already hitting gas stations, airfares and shipping costs, could aggravate all three.”

Trump’s War Plan Went Awry Almost Immediately

March 14, 2026 at 9:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CNN: “Spurred by fresh intelligence that the country’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was meeting with his top officials on the morning of Feb. 28, the US and Israel had accelerated plans for an attack in hopes of wiping out the regime’s senior leadership all at once.”

“If it worked, officials calculated, the resulting power vacuum could be filled by a slate of lower-tier leaders they hoped would be open to ushering in a more US-friendly era in Iran.”

“The first strikes on targets across the country succeeded in killing Khamenei and other high-ranking aides. Yet as early reports trickled in, it became clear they’d created a new problem: All the candidates the administration had eyed to lead Iran had been wiped out too.”

The Art of Destroy and Deal

March 14, 2026 at 8:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The U.S. president, who promised to end American wars, is now embracing the policies backed by Mr. Rubio and the secretary’s ideological compatriots, dismaying supporters who thought Mr. Trump had ushered in a new era of military restraint.”

“But Mr. Rubio is not trying to convert Mr. Trump to George W. Bush-era neoconservatism, which sought to remold other nations’ political systems, sometimes with military force, American officials and analysts say. Instead, he seems to be pursuing a new approach built on power free of principle. It is a merger of neoconservatism with Mr. Trump’s transactionalism, and it amounts to using U.S. military and economic power to turn authoritarian countries into client states.”

“It is regime compliance rather than regime change, a doctrine of destroy and deal.”

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What’s Trump’s Phone Number Worth?

March 14, 2026 at 8:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Washington’s hottest commodity is a 10-digit number that can swing financial markets, drive the news, and shift policy—but only if the timing is right.”

“The White House has received reports in recent weeks that President Trump’s personal phone number has been offered for sale to deep-pocketed interests seeking influence.”

U.S. Offers $10 Million for Info on Iran’s Leaders

March 14, 2026 at 8:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The United States said it was offering up to $10 million, and the potential opportunity to relocate, for information on the whereabouts of 10 senior Islamic Republic leaders,” CBS News reports.

Israel Says Iran Is Firing Cluster Warheads at Civilians

March 14, 2026 at 8:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Half of the Iranian missiles fired at Israel in this war spray numerous small explosives over their targets, expanding the radius of possible damage and casualties though presenting less of a direct danger than traditional warheads,“ Bloomberg reports.

“The spread of cluster-munition strikes has prompted some experts to suggest Tehran is trying to keep up a rate of fire and signal defiance in the face of its US and Israeli foes even as its capabilities are stretched.”

For Your Weekend Listening

March 14, 2026 at 8:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live.

How the politics of the upcoming election cycle could constrain Trump’s military ambitions.

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Hegseth Says There’s No Need to Worry About Strait

March 14, 2026 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth brushed aside concerns that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz because of the Iran war, which has spiked oil prices, would continue being a problem for the U.S. and the world for much longer, CNBC reports.

Said Hegseth: “We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.”

Here Comes Hormuz Inflation

March 14, 2026 at 7:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The war with Iran is driving up more than gasoline prices. It is beginning to hit semiconductors, medical imaging, backyard gardens and even children’s party balloons,” Politico reports.

“While much of the world is focused on how Iran’s essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is damaging global energy markets, other key industries risk getting hit by similar price inflation. That’s because Hormuz is also a major shipping route for helium and fertilizer, which both affect a wide sector of the economy and are now experiencing price spikes as ships bottleneck on both sides of the strait.”

Trump Dismissed Risk of Iran Blocking Strait of Hormuz

March 13, 2026 at 11:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane.”

“Trump acknowledged the risk but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.”

“Now, two weeks into the war, Iran’s leaders have refused to back down, and the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as Tehran’s most potent leverage point.”

Israel Planning Massive Ground Invasion of Lebanon

March 13, 2026 at 8:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure,” Axios reports.

U.S. Military Attacks Iran’s Oil Export Hub

March 13, 2026 at 7:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump said that the U.S. military had conducted a large bombing raid on Kharg Island, a key port and Iran’s oil export hub, the New York Times reports.

Trump said the raid had “totally obliterated” military forces on the island, but that he had directed the Pentagon not to damage its oil infrastructure, “for reasons of decency.”

Axios says the White House has been considering a ground operation to take over the island as one of many options presented by the Pentagon ahead of the war with Iran.

Kevin Stitt and Trump Patch Things Up

March 13, 2026 at 6:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A Cabinet shake up and vacant Senate seat drove Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt to attempt to patch up his relationship with President Donald Trump,” Politico reports.

“When Stitt sat down with Trump Thursday at the White House, the governor’s first priority was clearing the air between the two Republicans after recent tensions over White House invitations to the nation’s governors. Stitt brought up mending the relationship and Trump was receptive to it.”

U.S. to Receive $10 Billion Fee for Brokering TikTok Deal

March 13, 2026 at 6:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is set to receive a roughly $10 billion fee from investors in the recently completed deal to take control of TikTok’s U.S. business, delivering it a windfall for keeping the popular social-media app alive in America,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The $10 billion payment would be nearly unprecedented for a government helping arrange a transaction, historians have said.”

Mayor of Boca Raton Elected by 5 Votes

March 13, 2026 at 6:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Andy Thomson was elected the new mayor of Boca Raton after a manual recount, the Palm Beach Post reports.

The result may face a legal challenge from the candidate who finished just five votes behind.

Bonus Quote of the Day

March 13, 2026 at 5:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Nobody knows who is the leader, so there is no one that can announce surrender.”

— President Trump, quoted by Axios, on why Iran has not surrendered yet.

Can You Do Better?

March 13, 2026 at 5:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

So far, just 22% of today’s quiz takers have gotten every question right. 

Click here to test yourself.

Trump Now Says Iranians Face ‘Big Hurdle’

March 13, 2026 at 4:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump on Friday tempered his call for Iranians to rise up against their rulers, acknowledging that they would be gunned down for trying, the New York Times reports.

Trump said there are government forces in Iran that “go around with machine guns. And they say, ‘Anybody protests, we’re going to kill you in the street!’”

He added: “So I really think that’s a big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

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