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The Most Newsworthy Polls are Often Wrong

May 20, 2016 at 7:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

Norm Ornstein: “In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Those polls get intense coverage and analysis, adding to their presumed validity.”

“The problem is that the polls that make the news are also the ones most likely to be wrong. And to folks like us, who know the polling game and can sort out real trends from normal perturbations, too many of this year’s polls, and their coverage, have been cringeworthy.

Republicans Fall In Line Behind Trump

May 20, 2016 at 7:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

Politico: “While a small group of Republicans has wrung its hands raw over the choice between the GOP’s nominee and Hillary Clinton, the party’s firmament – social and intellectual conservatives, the lobbyist and donor class, powerful operatives and outside groups – is increasingly getting in line behind Donald Trump.”

“Never mind that many of them complain about his bombastic and unpredictable political style. The thawing has slowly but surely begun – and it’s visible everywhere — from mega-donors like Foster Friess rallying Republican governors to Trump, to Mitt Romney’s allies agreeing to raise money for him, to leaders of the Never Trump movement conceding their cause is lost.”

Clinton Directing Money to Senate Battlegrounds

May 20, 2016 at 6:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

“Hillary Clinton, seeking a governing coalition if she wins the White House, is pumping millions of dollars into key battleground states at the heart of her presidential map and Democrats’ quest to regain control of the Senate,” the AP reports.

“The Democratic National Committee and state parties are spending about $2 million initially to build coordinated campaigns in eight battleground states with competitive Senate races. The money is being raised by Clinton’s campaign through her Hillary Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee that allows Clinton to raise large checks of more than $350,000 from wealthy donors.”

“Democrats say the coordinated effort, now a staple in presidential campaigns, will try to build up the party’s network of field organizers earlier in the election and work more closely with Senate, House and state and local campaigns than in previous election cycles.”

Clinton Holds Narrowing Lead Over Trump

May 20, 2016 at 6:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

A new New York Times/CBS News poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 47% to 41%.

Key findings: “An overwhelming majority of Republican voters say their party’s leaders should get behind Donald Trump, even as he enters the general election saddled with toxic favorability ratings among the broader electorate.”

Trump Helped Create the Media That Created Trump

May 20, 2016 at 6:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Jack Shafer: “If this makes the media complicit in Trump’s rise, so be it. But the media didn’t create the Trump political phenomenon. The real origin is far more interesting: Trump artfully created the media that in turn created Trump the presidential candidate.”

“There’s something truly original in all of this. Trump may yet turn out to be a fairly conventional American populist when it comes to his policy views, but he’s already proved revolutionary in his ability to create—and then manipulate—the media platforms that enable his politics. His breakthrough idea was to cash in on his four decades of media exposure with a political message that uniquely combined victimhood, bragging and patriotic obfuscation. To invert Marshall McLuhan’s most famous dictum, when it comes to politics, it’s the message—not the medium—that matters most in pushing a candidate to the top. But you can’t deliver the message unless you have the medium at your disposal.”

The Electors

May 19, 2016 at 4:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Just published: The Electors by Roy Neel and Tucker Neel.

“A riveting story of massive political corruption, The Electors follows a conspiracy hatched by the White House Chief of Staff, in the wake of a devastating terrorist incident in the nation’s Capitol.”

Lawmaker Proposes Keeping Strippers Young And Fit

May 19, 2016 at 3:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 103 Comments

While discussing a bill that would raise the minimum age of exotic dancers from 18 to 21, Louisiana Rep. Kenny Havard (R) briefly proposed an amendment to cap dancers at 28 years old and 160 pounds, the Huffington Post reports.

Not all of Havard’s statehouse colleagues were amused. Rep. Julie Stokes (R) said she had “never been more repulsed to be part of the House of Representatives.”

Trump Wanted Black vs. White Apprentice

May 19, 2016 at 3:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

BuzzFeed: “A decade before he launched his presidential bid, Donald Trump was a reality TV sensation in search of a new gimmick for the upcoming season of The Apprentice. In the summer of 2005, he thought he had found it: pit black contestants against white ones in the televised battle for boardroom supremacy.”

Clinton Says Trump Is ‘Unqualified’

May 19, 2016 at 3:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 110 Comments

Hillary Clinton declared Donald Trump unqualified to be president, citing as her proof a list of the presumptive GOP nominee’s “irresponsible, reckless, dangerous comments,” MSNBC reports.

Said Clinton: “I have concluded he is not qualified to be president of the United States… The threat that Donald Trump poses is so dramatic — to our country, to our democracy, and to our economy.”

Clinton Must Make Peace with Sanders to Win

May 19, 2016 at 1:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 142 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The latest Economist/YouGov poll finds that 61% of Bernie Sanders voters have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton, while just 38% with a favorable one.

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What If Clinton Is Indicted?

May 19, 2016 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 164 Comments

Karl Rove games out the possibility of Hillary Clinton being indicted for problems stemming from her private email server.

“The party establishment might balk at having the ticket led by someone mired in a national-security scandal or by Mr. Sanders, a socialist and independent who has never before sought election as a Democrat or attended a state or national convention.”

“Instead, the party establishment might move to replace Mrs. Clinton with Vice President Joe Biden, a sentimental favorite, or Secretary of State John Kerry, whom many in the party’s leadership think more substantive, less prone to gaffes and, because of his 2004 loss against President George W. Bush, more deserving.”

An Argument Clinton Shouldn’t Make

May 19, 2016 at 10:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 70 Comments

Matt Bai: “In case you were wondering what Bill Clinton’s pet cause might be in his wife’s administration…Bill, she said, would be in charge of rebuilding the national economy… Economic policy isn’t something for which you name a czar… It’s kind of a central plank of the presidency. It’s the reason we elect you, more or less.”

“If Hillary wants to keep inspiring the little girls of this country, she probably shouldn’t go around saying she’ll turn over the big stuff to her husband… Because the larger problem with Clinton’s statement is that it exposes what’s really missing from her campaign — the vulnerability she’s left herself, even against a candidate as flawed as Trump…However admired a politician Bill may be, Americans don’t elect presidents with the expectation that their spouses will do the governing. She of all people should understand that.”

Sanders Agrees to Fox News Debate

May 19, 2016 at 10:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 128 Comments

Sen. Bernie Sanders has accepted a Fox News invitation for a Democratic debate in California, Politico reports.

“Fox News has expressed interest in holding a Democratic debate for months and has been publicly lobbying the Democratic National Committee… On Tuesday, Fox News sent a formal letter to both campaigns inviting them to a debate… The letters and the Sanders campaign’s statements didn’t specify a time or place, though Fox News said the debate would be moderated by anchors Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace, who have been roundly praised for their handling of three Republican debates.”

Trump Gets Endorsement from Reality TV Star

May 19, 2016 at 9:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson, who endorsed Ted Cruz in the GOP primaries, told Fox and Friends that he is willing to be Donald Trump’s “spiritual adviser” and will do “everything he can” to help him become president.

Shadow Banks Pump Millions Into Clinton Campaign

May 19, 2016 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 165 Comments

“Hillary Clinton has vowed to be tougher on Wall Street than any other presidential candidate, but that hasn’t stopped the financial industry from sending a flood of cash to help elect her,” Bloomberg reports.

“That includes segments of finance she has singled out for greater oversight in her plan to rein in ‘shadow banking,’ where financial companies act like banks without being regulated like them. Hedge funds, private equity and insurance executives, who could face greater oversight under the plan, have given a combined $24.9 million to Clinton and the super-PACs supporting her, a Bloomberg review of campaign finance records shows.”

Quote of the Day

May 19, 2016 at 8:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

“I want to go up to every single one of them and apologize, I want to go up to every single one of them and tell them how grateful I am that they are in this country and apologize on behalf of the Republican Party for Donald Trump.”

— Former Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), quoted by the Daily Beast, just before he died, asking his son if there were any Muslims in the hospital.

Democrats Fear an Unruly Convention

May 19, 2016 at 8:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 120 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “A loose coalition of supporters of rival Sen. Bernie Sanders is using social media to plan a series of events at the Democratic National Convention. Using pro-Sanders blogs and websites, organizers will be pressing to insert his progressive agenda—from free college tuition to revisions in the primary process—into the party’s platform.”

“At least five of the nine permit applications to hold demonstrations during the four-day event have been filed by pro-Sanders forces with the Philadelphia city government, according to the mayor’s office.”

Overcoming Negatives May Be Nearly Impossible

May 19, 2016 at 8:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “In the battle over image, the two likely presidential contenders face a challenge not seen in modern history. No modern candidate has entered the fray at this point of the race with deeper negatives than either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. And if history is any guide, their room for improvement is scant, especially because of their nearly 100% name recognition.”