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Don’t Blame Voter Suppression

November 10, 2016 at 12:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Hasen: “There is thus far not enough evidence (as I’ve shown in this post) that these laws actually affected the outcome of the presidential election. We have statistics on a fewer number of polls open or early voting days in some of these states, and we know courts have found in some cases that up to hundreds of thousands of voters lacked the right kind of ID to vote in some strict voter id states. But it is a big empirical leap to claim that these cutbacks caused the losses for Democrats in states that mattered for the outcome of the electoral college. Lots of people who lacked id could have gotten it and voted. (A more plausible case could be made in some of these states that these laws mattered in races which are very, very close.)”

“More importantly, even in states that had eased their voting and registration rules in recent years, such as Minnesota, Democratic turnout was way down. This is key: Hillary Clinton is down millions of Democrats; votes (right now about 7 million votes) compared to Obama in 2012. People stayed home for reasons unrelated to voter suppression.”

Obamacare Sign Ups Surge After Election

November 10, 2016 at 12:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The day after Donald Trump’s presidential election victory marked the strongest day of ObamaCare signups in this year’s open enrollment period so far,” The Hill reports.

“More than 100,000 people selected plans through HealthCare.gov on Wednesday, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced.”

Trump’s Data Team Saw a Different America

November 10, 2016 at 10:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joshua Green: “Nobody saw it coming. Not the media. Certainly not Hillary Clinton. Not even Donald Trump’s team of data scientists, holed up in their San Antonio headquarters 1,800 miles from Trump Tower, were predicting this outcome. But the scientists picked up disturbances—like falling pressure before a hurricane—that others weren’t seeing. It was the beginning of the storm that would deliver Trump to the White House.”

“Trump’s numbers were different, because his analysts, like Trump himself, were forecasting a fundamentally different electorate than other pollsters and almost all of the media: older, whiter, more rural, more populist. And much angrier at what they perceive to be an overclass of entitled elites. In the next three weeks, Trump channeled this anger on the stump, at times seeming almost unhinged.”


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Why Wasn’t Trump Stopped?

November 10, 2016 at 9:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jeff Greenfield: “In part, it’s because the Republican Party had already embraced behavior that would once have been unthinkable. Of course you can’t really threaten not to raise the debt ceiling; that would risk something close to a global financial meltdown. (Of course you can’t use the filibuster on almost every key piece of legislation to turn majority rule into a supermajority). With so many “unthinkable” positions turned into an agenda, choosing a nominee—and a president—without traditional credentials was just another step down a road already taken.”

“There is, however, more to the story. Trump was immune to the hits that would have doomed any other candidate, in large part, because his ardent supporters hear any negative assertions as coming from a corrupt, incompetent, mendacious establishment that has ignored and/or betrayed them.”

The Polls Were Right and Then They Were Wrong

November 10, 2016 at 9:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Erick Erickson: “I got it absolutely wrong. I have been writing since February that he would not win. The great paradox of this election for me is that I never saw Mr. Trump as a legitimate contender in the primaries because I believed the polling was wrong, but it was right all along. In the general election, I presumed he would never win because the polling was right, but it was wrong all along.”

GOP Candidates Who Distanced from Trump Lost

November 10, 2016 at 9:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “With Democrat Maggie Hassan the apparent winner of New Hampshire’s Senate contest, Republicans will most likely enjoy a 52-48 majority in the Senate next year. It’s striking that the three GOP Senate candidates who lost on Tuesday — Kelly Ayotte, Mark Kirk, and Joe Heck — were the ones who distanced themselves from Trump. Guess that didn’t work out so well.”

Trump Won’t Need Congress for Immigration Measures

November 10, 2016 at 9:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Since launching his presidential run a year and a half ago with a speech describing Mexican immigrants as rapists, Trump has made a bevy of promises about how he’d overhaul U.S. immigration policy,” Bloomberg reports.

“Many of those pledges—such as tripling the ranks of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and building a wall along the southern U.S. border—require cooperation from Congress, which some of his Republican allies will be eager to provide. But what worries pro-immigrant activists the most are the things President Trump can do by himself.”

“That starts with cancellation of President Obama’s 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA, which has provided work permits and deportation relief to hundreds of thousands of young undocumented immigrants, some of whom have used their newfound legal status to buy homes or start businesses.”

What a Difference Two Percent Makes

November 10, 2016 at 7:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “What would have happened if just 1 out of every 100 voters shifted from Trump to Clinton? That would have produced a net shift of 2 percentage points in Clinton’s direction.”

“Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida flip back to Clinton, giving her a total of 307 electoral votes. And she’d have won the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points, right where the final national polls had the race and in line with Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.”

Russia Was In Contact With Trump During Campaign

November 10, 2016 at 7:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Russia said it was in contact with President-elect Donald Trump’s team during the U.S. election campaign, despite repeated denials by the Republican candidate’s advisers that any links existed,” Bloomberg reports.

Said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “There were contacts… We continue this work of course.”

Trump Was Shocked He Won

November 10, 2016 at 7:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For all his boisterousness during the campaign, Mr. Trump was more muted than exuberant in its aftermath, according to people who spoke with him throughout the day. His victory over Hillary Clinton caught even him by surprise: Like Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump tracked the race through private polling that indicated he was headed for defeat, and he went all but silent in his apartment on Tuesday night as the returns from Florida turned in his favor.”

“A startled Mr. Trump fielded conciliatory phone calls from political dignitaries, including Republicans who resisted his candidacy, like Presidents George Bush and George W. Bush, and from Democrats with whom he may clash in office, like Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader in the House of Representatives.”

How Trump Can Get His First Legislative Win

November 10, 2016 at 7:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Remember we all said that a tax and infrastructure deal would’ve been a slam dunk for a President Hillary Clinton in the first days of her White House? Well, it’s not a bad idea for Trump, either. Trump, Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be, roughly, in the same ideological space in reforming the tax code. Trump is a former donor to and acquaintance of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the future Democratic leader who has worked with Ryan on tax reform. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wants an infrastructure package — and has already said so. The infrastructure package actually spooks Republicans more than it spooks Democrats. This wouldn’t be easy, but could be a win in Trump’s first 100 days.”

Protests Swell Across Country In Wake of Trump Win

November 10, 2016 at 7:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Vigils and protests against Donald Trump spread from coast to coast early Thursday as crowds burned effigies of the president-elect, blocked highways and warned of wider backlash — underscoring the difficult task Trump faces in uniting a fractured country,” the Washington Post reports.

“Despite Hillary Clinton and President Obama urging their backers to accept Trump’s victory and support his transition into power, thousands of demonstrators marched through the streets decrying his crude comments about women and attacks on immigrants.”

Politico: “From New England to heartland cities like Kansas City and along the West Coast, demonstrators bore flags and effigies of the president-elect, disrupting traffic and declaring that they refused to accept Trump’s victory.”

Trump Begins to Remake the Republican Party

November 10, 2016 at 7:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Overnight, President-elect Donald Trump has reshaped what it means to be a Republican, leaving some longtime party officials scrambling to find their places in a new political era,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Throughout Mr. Trump’s populist campaign, Washington Republicans sought separation from some of Mr. Trump’s proposals on trade and foreign policy that broke from party orthodoxy. Establishment Republicans demurred when he promised to build a border wall and send the bill to Mexico.”

“Now, though, Republicans in Washington and across the country are beginning to start adopting the Trump agenda as their own.”

Ryan and Trump Work to Get On Same Page

November 10, 2016 at 7:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “It’s no secret that Trump and Ryan haven’t exactly gotten along, but they’re inching closer together now. They spoke by phone twice immediately after the election, and the lunch today will be another sign that they’re readying to work together. Ryan, frankly, can use Trump’s help as he readies for an internal election for House speaker. Ryan has to run in a closed-party election next week, and again on the House floor in January. If the incoming president is seen as being supportive of Ryan’s speakership, it’s far less likely anyone will run against him. Ryan’s allies already feel like Trump is — and should be — on board. Ryan and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy know how to move things on the Hill — a useful tool, since Donald Trump has never been elected to anything. Ever. And he’s president of the United States.”

“Trump has a lot of big plans. A wall with Mexico. Repealing Obamacare. Tax reform. Regulatory reform. Most of this stuff is going to take legislation, and 218 votes in the House of Representatives. It’s probably smart for Trump and Pence to get on the same page with Ryan on their priorities.”

Trump Staff Line Up for White House Jobs

November 10, 2016 at 7:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The political cast-offs, never-have-beens and backbench legislators who surround Donald Trump were warned that their work for the nominee would forever stain their resumes. Now they’re in line for the most influential jobs in Washington,” Politico reports.

“Resumes are rolling in from operatives looking for administration work — offering one of the surest signs that whatever wound was opened during the ugly GOP primary has been healed by Tuesday night’s stunning victories that handed both the White House and Congress to the Republican Party.”

The Trump transition has a new website.

The Polls Dramatically Missed Trump

November 10, 2016 at 6:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

FiveThirtyEight: “The more whites without college degrees were in a state, the more Trump outperformed his FiveThirtyEight polls-only adjusted polling average,1 suggesting the polls underestimated his support with that group. And the bigger the lead we forecast for Trump, the more he outperformed his polls.2 In the average state won by Trump, the polls missed by an average of 7.4 percentage points (in either direction); in Clinton states, they missed by an average of 3.7 points. It’s typical for polls to miss in states that aren’t close, though.”

“The most important concentration of polling errors was regional: Polls understated Trump’s margin by 4 points or more in a group of Midwestern states that he was expected to mostly lose but mostly won: Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.”

It Begins With a Meeting

November 10, 2016 at 6:53 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump are set to get together at the White House, a significant step in the handoff and a meeting between men who have had little good to say about each other. Mr. Trump has famously and falsely questioned Mr. Obama’s birthplace and citizenship, and Mr. Obama has scalded him as unfit for office and worse, including during a roasting at the 2011 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. But the two seem to have agreed to let bygones be bygones to secure the nation’s traditional peaceful transition of power.”

Priebus Built the Machine Trump Used to Win

November 10, 2016 at 6:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The cast of characters behind Donald Trump changed repeatedly during the course of his improbable presidential campaign as the rookie candidate struggled to strike the balance between Republican politician and anti-establishment crusader, but one person remained constant: Reince Priebus.”

“And now, the Republican National Committee chairman, whose efforts to rein in Trump at times made him the butt of jokes, is getting a lot of the credit for helping the president-elect pull off the most shocking upset in modern political history.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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