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Why Trump Should Now Be Favored to Win

February 16, 2016 at 10:41 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

For months, we’ve been told that national polls don’t matter during the presidential primary season because there is no national primary. Instead, state polls are more important.

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Obama Will Make a Supreme Court Nomination

February 16, 2016 at 9:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 61 Comments

President Obama vowed to nominate an “indisputably qualified” candidate to the Supreme Court, “forcefully rejecting Republican calls that he cede the pick to his successor because the Court vacancy comes late in his presidency and in the middle of an election year,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Obama: “There’s no unwritten law that says it can only be done on off years. That’s not in the constitutional text. I’m amused when I hear people who claim to be strict interpreters of the Constitution suddenly reading into it a whole series of provisions that are not there.”

Trump Maintains Lead in Post-Debate Polls

February 16, 2016 at 9:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 33%, followed by Marco Rubio at 16%, Ted Cruz at 14%, John Kasich at 14%, Jeb Bush at 9% and Ben Carson at 3%.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 61% to 31%.

A tracking poll from South Carolina House Republicans finds Trump leading with 34%, followed by Cruz at 16%, Rubio at 15%, Bush at 15%, Kasich at 8% and Carson at 7%.


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Young Women Don’t Warm to Clinton

February 16, 2016 at 9:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 92 Comments

New York Times: “It is as if Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, based partly on revealing the power of female voters, has instead revealed something else: a generational schism that threatens to undermine it. Mrs. Clinton lost the women’s vote in New Hampshire by 11 percentage points. Broken down by age, the results were even more striking: She led by 19 points among women 65 and older, but trailed by a huge margin, 59 points, among millennial voters, ages 18 to 29.”

Trump Confounds Late Night Comics

February 16, 2016 at 9:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

New York Times: “His style has rendered him, weirdly, almost comedy-proof. Election parodies traditionally exaggerate candidates. But Mr. Trump exaggerates himself — he’s the frilled lizard of politics, inflating his self-presentation to appear ever larger. Satire exposes candidates’ contradictions and absurdities. But Mr. Trump blows past those, while his supporters cheer.”

“Whatever anyone thought of Mr. Trump as a candidate, the consensus was that he would be a one-man stimulus program for comedians. He’s given them plenty of material, but little of it has stuck. As Mr. Trump has defied conventional politics and confounded conventional pundits, so has he frustrated conventional satire.”

Politico: Trump to phone in to Late Night with Stephen Colbert

Grassley Might Hold Hearings on Obama Pick

February 16, 2016 at 5:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 183 Comments

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, told Radio Iowa that he had not ruled out holding hearings on President Obama’s eventual nominee to replace Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.

Said Grassley: “I would wait until the nominee is made before I would make any decisions. This is a very serious position to fill and it should be filled and debated during the campaign and filled by either Hillary Clinton, Senator Sanders or whoever’s nominated by the Republicans.”

Rivals Size Cruz Up as a Liar

February 16, 2016 at 5:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz “is getting hammered by his Republican rivals over what they call a pattern of unethical campaign tactics and inaccurate statements by the Texas senator who has shaped his White House bid around trust,” the AP reports.

“Cruz has had some trouble getting all his facts straight in debates, has used campaign tactics that some find suspicious and had an ad by an outside group temporarily pulled for questions about its accuracy. His opponents are blunter, calling him simply a liar.”

Trump and Clinton Way Ahead in South Carolina

February 16, 2016 at 4:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 61 Comments

A new CNN/ORC poll in South Carolina finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 22%, Marco Rubio at 14% support, Jeb Bush at 10%, Ben Carson at 6% and John Kasich at 4%.

Key takeaway: “The poll suggests Trump’s support may have softened after Saturday’s debate among the GOP candidates. In interviews conducted before the debate, 40% backed Trump, compared with 31% who said they supported him after the raucous matchup between the remaining candidates in the field.”

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 56% to 38%.

Kudlow Won’t Run for Senate

February 16, 2016 at 2:42 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

CNBC financial commentator Larry Kudlow announced that he will not run for the U.S. Senate in Connecticut this year, the Hartford Courant reports.

Said Kudlow: “The best course for me was to do exactly what I’m doing, which I love. That was the bottom, bottom line… I love being a broadcaster. I love it so much that I don’t want to give it up.”

Control of Senate Will Hinge on Supreme Court Fight

February 16, 2016 at 1:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A brawl over President Obama’s pick to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia is already spilling from the presidential campaign into some of the most hotly contested Senate races.

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Trump and Clinton Lead in Virginia

February 16, 2016 at 12:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 54 Comments

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds that Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential race with 28%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 19%, Ben Carson at 7%, John Kasich at 7% and Jeb Bush at 4%.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 52% to 40%.

The Virginia primary is on March 1.

Hillary’s Goldman Handcuffs

February 16, 2016 at 11:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard 68 Comments

Former Goldman Sachs partner Peter Kiernan is quoted by Bloomberg referring to the speaking fees paid to Hillary Clinton as “Hillary’s Goldman handcuffs.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

February 16, 2016 at 11:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

“It’s because he fears me, because I’m the only guy standing up to him.”

— Jeb Bush, quoted by Politico, on why Donald Trump constantly attacks him.

Trump Fuels Conspiracy that Scalia Was Murdered

February 16, 2016 at 11:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard 111 Comments

Donald Trump spoke to radio host Michael Savage and added fuel to the conspiracy theory that Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was murdered, saying that one of the details of his death was “pretty unusual.”

Trump Quote of the Day

February 16, 2016 at 10:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

“The worst attack ever in this country? It was during his presidency.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the New York Times, attacking former President George W. Bush.

Trump Takes On the Republican Party

February 16, 2016 at 10:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

Rick Klein: “If Donald Trump captures the Republican Party’s nomination, the party itself will almost need a new name. He’s not running for the GOP but against it – against the party’s formal structure, its biggest players, and, yes, some of its core values. Consider his actions just since this past weekend. Trump is accusing the Republican Party of breaking its pledge to treat him fairly, in an implicit threat of a third-party run; saying that the GOP’s most-recent, two-term president tied the nation into a war; mocking the two leading establishment candidates, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, for energy level and propensity to perspire, respectively; and calling his leading rival, Ted Cruz, ‘very unstable’ and the biggest liar he’s ever come into contact with.”

“The biggest shocker is that Trump might win South Carolina and much more because of such statements, not in spite of them. For those who have come up under existing power structures – and that list includes Bush, Rubio, Cruz, and John Kasich – Trump’s continued strength is confounding, dangerous, and yet very much reality.”

Rush Limbaugh has a theory: “I think Trump strategically was making a move on independents and Democrats in South Carolina since it’s open. And I think that he wants to wrap this up ASAP. I think he wants a blow ’em out, going-away win in South Carolina. I think he just wants to wrap this up.”

Morning Again In Canada?

February 16, 2016 at 10:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

“Marco Rubio, currently running third in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, must be hoping that scenic Vancouver can give him a push past frontrunners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz,” the National Post reports.

“The Florida senator’s latest campaign ad, titled Morning Again in America, opens with three seconds of beautiful stock footage featuring our skyline and harbour.”

What Trump Supporters Believe

February 16, 2016 at 10:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

The Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina that shows Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race also shows his support is built on a base of voters among whom religious and racial intolerance pervades.

Most interesting: “70% think the Confederate flag should still be flying over the State Capital, to only 20% who agree with it being taken down. In fact 38% of Trump voters say they wish the South had won the Civil War to only 24% glad the North won and 38% who aren’t sure. Overall just 36% of Republican primary voters in the state are glad the North emerged victorious to 30% for the South, but Trump’s the only one whose supporters actually wish the South had won.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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