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Trump’s Window Is Closing Fast

August 15, 2016 at 5:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Wall Street Journal runs a scathing editorial:

Even with more than 80 days left, Mr. Trump’s window for a turnaround is closing… Those who sold Mr. Trump to GOP voters as the man who could defeat Hillary Clinton now face a moment of truth. Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Paul Manafort and the talk-radio right told Republicans their man could rise to the occasion.

If they can’t get Mr. Trump to change his act by Labor Day, the GOP will have no choice but to write off the nominee as hopeless and focus on salvaging the Senate and House and other down-ballot races. As for Mr. Trump, he needs to stop blaming everyone else and decide if he wants to behave like someone who wants to be President—or turn the nomination over to Mike Pence.

Secret Ledger In Ukraine Shows Cash for Manafort

August 14, 2016 at 11:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych’s pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012… Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials.”

“Mr. Manafort’s involvement with moneyed interests in Russia and Ukraine had previously come to light. But as American relationships there become a rising issue in the presidential campaign — from Mr. Trump’s favorable statements about Mr. Putin and his annexation of Crimea to the suspected Russian hacking of Democrats’ emails — an examination of Mr. Manafort’s activities offers new details of how he mixed politics and business out of public view and benefited from powerful interests now under scrutiny by the new government in Kiev.”

Clinton Holds Huge Lead Among Millennials

August 14, 2016 at 10:52 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new USA Today/Rock the Vote poll finds Hillary Clinton is favored by 56% of voters under the age of 35, while Donald Trump is backed by only 20%.

“The findings have implications for politics long past the November election. If the trend continues, the Democratic Party will have scored double-digit victories among younger voters in three consecutive elections, the first time that has happened since such data became readily available in 1952. That could shape the political affiliations of the largest generation in American history for years to follow.”


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‘He’s Pretty Stupid When It Comes to Politics’

August 14, 2016 at 6:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

James Carville is not impressed with Donald Trump’s political skills, The Hill reports.

Said Carville: “These guys have been outflanked, outmaneuvered, outsmarted, and they’re not taking it very well. They’re just going to have to stand there and just get beat because that’s what’s going to happen to Trump. He’s just getting slapped around every time you turn around.”

He added: “If anything, he’s pretty stupid when it comes to politics.”

Can Clinton Win 400+ Electoral Votes?

August 14, 2016 at 5:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Mitch Stewart, who led the battleground state effort for Barack Obama in the 2012 election, told Jonathan Allen that it’s “virtually impossible for Trump to climb out of his hole.”

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Clinton Organizes Florida While Trump Holds Rallies

August 14, 2016 at 5:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As anxious party leaders await a more conventional Florida campaign apparatus by Trump — field offices, paid organizers and TV ads that Giorno says are coming soon — the Clinton campaign is methodically building a massive get-out-the-vote effort,” the Miami Herald reports.

“Clinton has opened 14 offices statewide: Ybor City, Lakeland, East Orlando, Sanford, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola, Port St. Lucie, Lake Worth, Fort Lauderdale, Wynwood (Miami), Miami Gardens, Fort Myers, Naples — and has her Florida headquarters in the Town ’N Country section of Tampa.”

“Trump so far only has a headquarters in Sarasota, though the campaign plans to open two dozen more offices in the next two or three weeks.”

State Poll Roundup: Sunday

August 14, 2016 at 5:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls of the presidential race:

Florida: Clinton 45%, Trump 40% (CBS News/YouGov)

New Hampshire: Clinton 45%, Trump 36% (CBS News/YouGov)

Georgia: Trump 45%, Clinton 41% (CBS News/YouGov)

Trump Already Laying the Groundwork for a Loss

August 14, 2016 at 9:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

After an absolutely brutal three weeks of unforced errors, the presidential race seems to be moving out of Donald Trump’s reach. And he seems to know it by blaming others for his predicament.

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Bonus Quote of the Day

August 14, 2016 at 8:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn’t put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20%.”

— Donald Trump, on Twitter.

Romney and Trump

August 14, 2016 at 8:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I am who I am.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by CBS News in August 2012.

“I am who I am.”

— Donald Trump, on Twitter this morning.

A Deliberate Remix of the Southern Strategy

August 14, 2016 at 8:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “But, particularly over the past two months, Trump’s campaign seems less like a haphazard effort, and more like a deliberate and conscious attempt to resurrect these discarded GOP tactics, recasting them for the current moment.”

“One glaring, underreported clue about the method behind the post-primary Trump madness is his selection of Paul Manafort as chair of his national campaign. Manafort’s appointment, followed by the ousting of Corey Lewandowski in June, was widely seen as a move to professionalize Trump’s disorganized campaign staff just ahead of the convention. But along with credentials earned from working with top GOP politicians… Manafort also brought decades of experience as an overseer of the Southern Strategy. Since the 1980s, Manafort’s business partners have included Charles Black, who helped launch the Senate career of outspoken segregationist Jessie Helms, and Lee Atwater, who was behind the infamously racist Willie Horton ads run by the George H. W. Bush campaign.”

“And it was Manafort who arranged for Ronald Reagan to kick off his post-convention presidential campaign at the Neshoba County Fair just outside of Philadelphia, Mississippi, where three young civil rights workers were brutally murdered in 1964.”

Trump Struggles to Find a Path to 270

August 14, 2016 at 8:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Right now, Trump doesn’t have a lead in any of the states where he will need to win and where recent polling exists, and in several states, he’s significantly behind Clinton.”

Quote of the Day

August 14, 2016 at 8:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It may be that he may make more insensitive statements because he’s not a polished politician.”

— Rudy Giulini, quoted by The Hill, defending Donald Trump.

RNC Mulls Cutting Funding of Trump Campaign

August 14, 2016 at 8:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Publicly, Republican Party officials continue to stand by Donald Trump. Privately, at the highest levels, party leaders have started talking about cutting off support to Trump in October and redirecting cash to saving endangered congressional majorities,” Politico reports.

“Since the Cleveland convention, top party officials have been quietly making the case to political journalists, donors and GOP operatives that the Republican National Committee has done more to help Trump than it did to support its 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and that, therefore, Trump has only himself and his campaign to blame for his precipitous slide in the polls.”

My Kirsten Gillibrand Story

August 13, 2016 at 9:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Nearly 10 years ago this month, I received a phone call from a woman running for Congress in upstate New York. Her name was Kirsten Gillibrand and she wanted to know if I had time to meet for lunch the next time that she was in New York City.

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Well, If It’s a Book About Me…

August 13, 2016 at 6:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A telling anecdote on how the Washington Post came to write a book on Donald Trump:

Hicks cut him off, calling the decision to write a book “incredibly disingenuous… You are profiteering off Mr. Trump. This isn’t something we’re participating in; you all are making money on this.”

Fisher pointed out that in every election year, The Post publishes a comprehensive series of articles tracing the candidates’ lives. This would be no different, except that the same reporting that was going toward newspaper articles was also being used to tell the story in one narrative, in book form. The Post planned a similar examination of the life and record of the Democratic nominee. Hicks was unimpressed. She reiterated icily that no cooperation would be forthcoming and she ended the call.

After the weekend, Hicks called back, her tone now bright and friendly. “I told Mr. Trump about your project, and he loves it,” she said. “He’s happy to meet with you.”

De Niro Compares Trump to Travis Bickle

August 13, 2016 at 6:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Award winning actor Robert De Niro compared Donald Trump to his mentally unstable character Travis Bickle in the 1976 movie Taxi Driver, calling the Republican nominee “totally nuts,” The Hill reports.

Said De Niro: “What he has been saying is totally crazy, ridiculous, stuff that shouldn’t be even… he is totally nuts.”

He added: “I don’t know, it’s crazy that people like Donald Trump… he shouldn’t even be where he is, so God help us.”

Has Trump Hit Bottom Yet?

August 13, 2016 at 5:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “The unraveling of Donald Trump’s candidacy continues apace, a long and steady decline since the high point three months ago. If he were deliberately trying to avoid winning the election, he could hardly be doing a better job.”

“The hole he has dug for himself is wide and deep. National polls and battleground state polls all tell a similar story. Hillary Clinton has opened up a small-to-significant lead over Trump almost everywhere it counts. Unless Trump can reverse course, Clinton, despite persistent questions about her honesty, is on track to win a handsome electoral college majority. The lone bright spot for Trump: It’s August not October. But that comes with a caveat.”

“Republicans hope Trump is bottoming out. They are waiting for a pivot that could and should have happened before Memorial Day. They wonder whether it will happen by the end of the month or at all… The general election is already half over, and Trump has lost the first half decisively.”

For members: Only an Epic Comeback Can Save Trump Now

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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