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State Poll Roundup: Wednesday

October 26, 2016 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

Florida: Clinton 48%, Trump 45%, Johnson 2% (SurveyUSA)

Florida: Clinton 44%, Trump 41%, Johnson 4% (Associated Industries)

Florida: Trump 45%, Clinton 43%, Johnson 4% (Bloomberg)

New Hampshire: Clinton 46%, Trump 42%, Johnson 7% (Monmouth)

Utah: Trump 33%, McMullin 29%, Clinton 27%, Johnson 7% (SurveyMonkey)

Utah: Trump 32%, McMullin 29%, Clinton 28%, Johnson 4% (Rasmussen)

Florida: Clinton 46%, Trump 43%, Johnson 3% (Florida Atlantic University)

Nevada: Clinton 43%, Trump 43%, Johnson 10% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

New Hampshire: Clinton 45%, Trump 36%, Johnson 10% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

McMullin Is Trying to Build a New Party

October 26, 2016 at 1:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

BuzzFeed looks at Evan McMullin’s real goal in  running for president.

“Bald, wiry, and barely 40, McMullin is not a bomb-thrower by nature. He is polite and mild-mannered, and speaks in the earnest cadence of a Mormon missionary asking for permission to come inside and share a brief message about Jesus. As a Capitol Hill policy wonk, McMullin was a loyal cog in the Grand Old Party until he quit his job in August to launch a presidential protest bid under the #NeverTrump banner. Initially, he said, his campaign was intended as a vehicle of reform, meant only to remind the GOP of its conservative principles. But now, in the final weeks of this havoc-wreaking election, McMullin is scanning the wreckage of the Republican Party, and wondering whether there’s anything left to salvage.”

Yahoo News: Is Evan McMullin’s presidential candidacy just a protest, or something bigger?

House GOP Already Planning for Years of Investigations

October 26, 2016 at 1:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “If Republicans retain control of the House, something that GOP-friendly maps make possible even in the event of a Trump loss, Clinton will become the first president since George H.W. Bush to immediately face a House Oversight Committee controlled by the opposition party. (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama lost Congress later in their presidencies.)”

“And other Republican leaders say they support Chaffetz’s efforts — raising the specter of more partisan acrimony between them and the White House for the next four years.”


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Trump’s Campaign Has Been Bad for Business

October 26, 2016 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Rates for rooms at Trump’s new D.C. hotel are being slashed as travelers weigh their options, and smartphone data suggest fewer people are visiting his properties compared to rival venues nearby. The Republican nominee for president is in danger of losing not just the election, but something dear to a man who claims the marketing value of his name alone is worth $3 billion: the many customers, mostly wealthy, who have stayed at his hotels, played a round at his golf courses or held galas at his oceanside resorts. Experts say the Trump brand is tarnished and at a tricky crossroads as his appeal shifts from the well-heeled, high-income people he has long courted to a more middle-class base, including the fervent fans he cultivated during the campaign.”

Nervous Republicans Make Big Investment In Senate Races

October 26, 2016 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Republicans, on the verge of losing the Senate, are plowing a mammoth $25 million into six races in a last-ditch attempt to stop Donald Trump from dragging the entire GOP down with him. The investment from Senate Leadership Fund, a powerful super PAC with ties to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, comes as Democrats shift resources from Hillary Clinton’s now almost certain victory to down-ballot contests in hopes of delivering her a congressional majority.”

Arpaio Charged with Criminal Contempt

October 26, 2016 at 9:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was officially charged Tuesday with criminal contempt of court when a federal judge affixed her signature, a formality that throws the lawman’s political and personal future into a level of crisis never before seen in his 23 years in office,” the Arizona Republic reports.

“Criminal-contempt charges have loomed over Arpaio since 2015. A criminal trial was the worst-case scenario for the sheriff after he admitted to violating a federal judge’s order to stop enforcing civil immigration laws.”

Clinton Maintains Wide National Lead

October 26, 2016 at 7:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The latest ABC News daily tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points, 49% to 40%, followed by Gary Johnson at 5% and Jill Stein at 2%.

However, likely voters divide essentially evenly, 47% to 46%, between the Democratic and Republican candidates in their congressional district.

House Republicans Hope Bleeding Has Stopped

October 26, 2016 at 7:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House Republicans are increasingly worried that Donald Trump’s presidential collapse will cut deep into their 30-seat majority, as races that looked relatively safe months ago have suddenly become battlegrounds in the final weeks of the 2016 election,” Politico reports.

“The blowback against Trump has practically eradicated the GOP’s early autumn hopes of keeping its House losses in the single digits. Some senior House Republicans are now predicting they could lose as many as 20 seats — not quite enough to lose the majority, but “on the warning track” of a devastating result, as one worried GOP strategist put it.”

On Political Wire Conversations: Can Democrats put more House seats in play?

Florida Takes Center Stage Again

October 26, 2016 at 7:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Mr. Trump finished three days of campaigning here Tuesday, touching down in its biggest cities and filling the airwaves with his most expensive advertising buys. At the same time, Mrs. Clinton launched a two-day trip, seeking to capitalize on an early-voting push to buoy Democrats here.”

“Long a presidential swing state, Florida also features a Senate race that could determine which party controls that chamber, and four of the most competitive House races, which could be key to the GOP keeping control of that chamber.”

‘You Are Fascinated with Sex, and You Don’t Care About Public Policy’

October 26, 2016 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “There are times when words do not do complete justice to a moment. Tuesday night’s Newt Gingrich-Megyn Kelly showdown is one of those times.”

Trump and Allies Focus Anger on GOP Leaders

October 26, 2016 at 7:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Some of the loudest voices on the right seem poised to channel that anger into one of their favorite and most frequent pursuits: eating their own.”

“Some in the deeply factionalized Republican Party, including Mr. Trump and some of his senior aides, are already fanning the flames for a revolt against the House speaker, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, once Congress reconvenes after the election. Mr. Trump, who has lashed out at the speaker for being critical of him, has privately said that Mr. Ryan should pay a price for his disloyalty, according to two people close to Mr. Trump who insisted on anonymity to describe internal campaign discussions.”

Trump Already Looking Past Presidential Race

October 26, 2016 at 7:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As his poll numbers have declined in the closing weeks of the presidential race, Donald Trump has begun to engage in barely veiled promotions of his business brand off the campaign trail, dragging reporters to his marquee properties in between his campaign events,” the New York Times reports.

“The stops are a remarkable display of personal promotion by a presidential nominee, raising questions about whether the businessman, who has lived by the mantra that ‘all publicity is good publicity,’ is at least partly casting his eye past the 2016 race, and toward bolstering the brand that bears his name.”

Trump Scales Back Transition Planning Efforts

October 25, 2016 at 7:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump “has asked his campaign to cut back on work identifying candidates for key jobs in his would-be administration and focus instead on bolstering his chances on Election Day,” Reuters reports.

“They have, as a result, largely set aside efforts to identify candidates for key Cabinet positions, but are continuing work to fill lower-level jobs, such as Securities and Exchange Commission general counsel, that would allow Trump to begin basic work on his agenda if he won on Nov. 8, without worrying about winning political battles first.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 25, 2016 at 7:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I was U.S. attorney and assistant to the U.S. attorney for too many years to laugh at Mrs. Clinton. When I see her, I see her in an orange jumpsuit, I’m sorry, or at least a striped one.”

— Rudy Giuliani, quoted by CNN.

Top Democrats Divided Over Marco Rubio

October 25, 2016 at 7:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Tensions are flaring at the highest rungs of the Democratic Party over its decision to pull out of the Florida Senate race, with Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and Florida donors pressing to go all out to unseat Marco Rubio in the final days of the campaign, but New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the party’s Senate campaign arm arguing it’s not feasible because of budget constraints,” Politico reports.

Trump Has Spent More on Hats Than Polling

October 25, 2016 at 7:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign “has spent $1.8 million on polling from June 2015 through September of this year (the most recent month for which data are available.) The report also lists $3.2 million spent on hats,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump has probably spent more on hats than he has spent on direct mail. The campaign filings occasionally aggregate a few things from the same vendor under one line-item, so some of the hat spending was on collateral generally that includes some hats. (His campaign spent more than $2 million on a line-item that was exclusively hats, though.) Overall, Trump’s spent about $15.3 million on collateral — shirts, hats, signs, etc. — more than he has spent on field consulting and voter lists and data.”

Trump Halts Big Dollar Fundraisers for the GOP

October 25, 2016 at 6:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump “has stopped holding events for his high-dollar fundraising operation for the rest of the campaign, an unusual move that deals another serious blow to the GOP’s effort to finance its get-out-the-vote operation before Election Day,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump’s decision effectively turns off one of the main spigots to the Republican National Committee, which collected $40 million through Trump Victory as of Sept. 30. The party has devoted a large share of the funds to pay for its national voter mobilization program to benefit the entire Republican ticket.”

Can Democrats Put More House Seats In Play?

October 25, 2016 at 4:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report talks to Chris Riback on Political Wire Conversations about the battle for control of the House of Representatives.

Listen here:

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Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode!

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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