Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “With four months to go in the 2016 general election campaign, national polls suggest that it’s quite possible that the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump clash may well set a new record for partisan differences between the sexes. Since Clinton effectively sewed up the Democratic nomination on June 7, the average gender gap in 22 national polls is 24.4 points and the median gap is 26 points, slightly ahead of the exit poll era record set in 2000.”
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Why Clinton May Not Choose Elizabeth Warren
Matt Bai: “For Clinton, the smarter move — and, I think, the one closest to where she really is politically, once you strip away all the artifice of the primaries — is to choose a more conventional running mate with a younger, more comfortable vibe. A swing-state senator like Virginia’s Tim Kaine or Colorado’s Michael Bennet could help reassure independents and maybe even draw some anti-Trump Republicans, too.”
“Or Clinton could do what she’s pretty good at, which is to split the difference. She might gravitate toward Sherrod Brown, the populist Ohio senator, who’s every bit the class warrior that Warren is, but with a less condescending touch and a proven ability to win working-class votes.”
“The larger point is that Clinton’s choice isn’t just about winning in November. It’s also a window into how she intends to govern.”
CNN: How to pick a running mate — and how not to.
Coleman Won’t Vote for Trump Either
Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) writing in the Minneapolis Star Tribune:
I won’t vote for Donald Trump because of who he isn’t.
He isn’t a Republican. He isn’t a conservative. He isn’t a truth teller.
He’s not a uniter. Donald Trump isn’t the leader America needs after eight years of a president who deliberately divided us and fanned the flames of racial and socioeconomic strife — and, by doing so, diminished America’s standing in the world.
I also won’t vote for Donald Trump because of who he is.
A bigot. A misogynist. A fraud. A bully.
Rubio Will Not Attend GOP Convention
“On second thought, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will not be attending the GOP convention this month,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“Rubio had been planning to attend the confab in Cleveland but now joins a long list of Republicans who seem to be calculating it’s better politics to stay away.”
Cruz Will Speak at GOP Convention
Sen. Ted Cruz will speak at the Republican National Convention later this month, CNN reports.
Said Cruz: “We had a positive and productive meeting this morning with Donald Trump. Donald asked me to speak at the Republican convention and I told him I’d be happy to do so.”
“The two men met Thursday with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters were Trump also met with several dozen other Republican senators on Thursday. The meeting marked the first time Cruz and Trump met in person since the Texas senator dropped out of the presidential race more than two months ago.”
Will Republicans Overreach Again?
Washington Post: “For more than 20 years, whenever Bill and Hillary Clinton have gotten into real political trouble, they have found an unlikely ally in House Republicans.”
“Over and over again, from Bill Clinton’s darkest hours as president to Hillary Clinton’s worst moments as secretary of state, House Republicans ended up helping the Clintons by turning them into victims of overzealous partisan investigations.”
Americans Very Dissatisfied with Both Candidates
Pew Research: “Overall satisfaction with the choice of candidates is at its lowest point in two decades. Currently, fewer than half of registered voters in both parties – 43% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans – say they are satisfied with their choices for president.Voter satisfaction with presidential candidates at lowest level in decades.”
“Roughly four-in-ten voters (41%) say it is difficult to choose between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton because neither would make a good president – as high as at any point since 2000. And just 11% say the choice is difficult because either would make a good chief executive, the lowest percentage during this period.”
Quote of the Day
Republicans Should Be Favored This Year
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman writes that on the fundamentals, “this should be at best a very close race, with at least a slight Republican lean. But candidates can make a difference, and surely are in this instance.”
“Trump’s concerted efforts to alienate large swaths of America have consequences. His repeated dishonesty matters. The fact that most voters believe his character and temperament disqualify him from the highest office in the land is significant. He is the most unpopular major party candidate for president in the history of polling, by far.”
“Models tell us what happens on the average, in the main. But Donald Trump has ensured that this is not an ‘average’ election. He has turned what could have been an opportunity for Republicans into not just an uphill but an up-mountain climb.”
Republicans Have a Voter Registration Problem
“The Democrats are outpacing Republicans in voter registration,” according to the Washington Examiner.
“As Election Day draws near, the number of Democratic voters is growing in key battlegrounds, compared to voters affiliating with the Republican Party. It’s a crucial development that could tip the scales in the race for the White House.”
Corker to Appear with Trump at Rally
Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) will join Donald Trump at his campaign rally in North Carolina, NBC News reports.
“Corker’s campaign stop with Trump follows personal meetings Trump held with Indiana Governor Mike Pence and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst over the holiday weekend. Those visits were described as part social and substantive in the running mate search.”
Obama Hits the Campaign Trail with Clinton
Los Angeles Times: “President Obama is enjoying resurgent popularity with voters at an opportune time for Hillary Clinton, as the presumptive Democratic nominee looks to him to help boost her support among an electorate that remains skeptical of her.”
The two will make their first campaign appearance together Tuesday afternoon in Charlotte, N.C. Obama has been eager to hit the stump on Clinton’s behalf, and both her campaign and the White House are confident he will be a potent weapon in their bid to reintroduce Clinton to uneasy voters and define rival Donald Trump as unhinged and a phony.”
Clinton Maintains National Lead Over Trump
A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump, 46% to 40%.
Also interesting: “Sixty-one percent report feeling alarmed about the election, swamping the 23% who are excited. Few are bored: Just 9%.”
Trump Meets with Ernst as Possible Veep
Donald Trump “met in New Jersey on Monday with Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, as he screens potential running mates in a series of meetings,” the New York Times reports.
“One person briefed on the process, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that the campaign began vetting Ms. Ernst in recent days as a possible vice-presidential pick. But it is not clear how seriously Ms. Ernst is being considered for a position that Mr. Trump has kept close counsel about filling.”
Clinton Looks to Reverse Trend with White Voters
“Hillary Clinton’s path to the White House relies on reassembling the winning Obama coalition of minority voters and women, but her campaign is vying for a demographic long out of reach for Democrats—college-educated whites—that could reshape the map of U.S. swing states this year,” Bloomberg reports.
“For decades, white voters with at least a bachelor’s degree have favored the Republican nominee over the Democrat in U.S. presidential elections, although not by as much as working-class whites.”
“The 2016 presidential election is turning that dynamic on its head.”
Third Party Vote Could Be Decisive
Nate Silver told Politico that the huge number of voters deeply dislike both presidential candidates — 20% of the electorate are currently opting for neither — increases volatility and make the election harder to predict.
Said Silver: “My gut is that there is going to be a fairly significant third- and fourth-party vote, and people under-voting the top of the ballot… That’s a big thing that we’re looking at.”
Trump’s Son-In-Law Takes a Powerful Role
New York Times: “Mr. Kushner has become involved in virtually every facet of the Trump presidential operation, so much so that many inside and out of it increasingly see him as a de facto campaign manager. Mr. Kushner, who is married to Mr. Trump’s daughter Ivanka, helped recruit a sorely needed director of communications, oversaw the creation of an online fund-raising system and has had a hand in drafting Mr. Trump’s few policy speeches. And now that Mr. Trump has secured the Republican nomination, Mr. Kushner is counseling his father-in-law on the selection of a running mate.”
“It is a new and unlikely role for Mr. Kushner, a conspicuously polite Harvard graduate whose prominent New Jersey family bankrolled Democrats for decades and whose father’s reputation was destroyed, in a highly public and humiliating manner, by his involvement in electoral politics.”
“Now, in a Shakespearean turn, Mr. Kushner is working side by side with the former federal prosecutor who put his father, Charles Kushner, in prison just over 10 years ago: Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, whom Mr. Trump named as a top adviser.”
Trump Plans Celebrity Convention
“Donald Trump’s team promises an extraordinary display of political entertainment at this month’s Republican National Convention, with the accent on entertainment,” the AP reports.
“The former reality television star plans to feature his high-profile children at the summer gathering in Cleveland, with the hope they’ll be joined by a number of celebrity supporters. Prospects include former Indiana basketball coach Bobby Knight, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and longtime boxing promoter Don King.”
