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Sometimes Elections are the Luck of the Draw

November 6, 2015 at 9:53 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

Bill Shearon won the Bradenton Beach, FL mayoral race against incumbent Jack Clarke in a tie-breaker that was decided by a deck of cards, Bay News 9 reports.

“After a recount found the same number of votes for each candidate, officials used a deck of cards to determine the winner. Clarke, the current mayor, pulled a 10 of clubs, while Shearon, the former mayor, pulled an ace of clubs.”

Joshua Spivak notes Shearon was ousted from the job earlier this year in a recall election.

Republicans Still Dealing with Bush Legacy

November 6, 2015 at 9:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

First Read: “If there’s a bigger story behind the last 24 hours of back-and-forth over George H.W. Bush’s comments about Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld not serving his son well, it’s maybe this — the Republican Party still hasn’t resolved George W. Bush’s legacy. And it’s not just a problem for Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign; it’s a problem for the entire party.”

“You see this when it comes to the presidential field’s rhetoric on ISIS and Russia (is military force and swagger the best approach, or is it diplomacy and multilateralism?); you see it when it comes to debates about the size of government (is government spending a force for good or bad?); you see it when it comes to tax cuts (should they be skewed to the Top 1% or to the middle class?); and you see it when it comes to immigration (was Bush right or wrong to pursue comprehensive immigration reform?).

“Yes, the Republican Party is back in control of the House and Senate after the Bush 43 years. And, yes, the GOP continues to win political races (see this week’s contest in Kentucky). Yet perhaps the Republican Party’s biggest challenge in winning back the White House in 2016 is resolving — once and for all — what happened from 2001-2008.”

Carson Misstates Experience of Founding Fathers

November 6, 2015 at 8:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard 66 Comments

After Ben Carson suggested in a Facebook post that the signers of the declaration of independence has never, like himself, served in elected office, the Wall Street Journal quickly pointed out this was false.

“Thomas Jefferson, Samuel Adams, John Hancock and many other signers had been elected members of their colonial assemblies, prior to signing the Declaration.”

Carson amended his statement saying they has no “federal” elected experience.


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Bonus Quote of the Day

November 6, 2015 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard 46 Comments

“He had principles, but he also had common sense. And when you look at both how he managed foreign policy and when you think about how he handled domestic policy in each case he was thoughtful, restrained, and made good decisions. And I think that ultimately he was one of the more underrated presidents that we’ve ever had certainly in modern times.”

— President Obama, quoted by the Huffington Post, on former President George H.W. Bush.

Strong Job Growth Pushes Down Unemployment Rate

November 6, 2015 at 8:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 271,000 jobs were created in October — significantly higher than expectations — while the unemployment rate fell to 5%, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Carson Lashes Out at Media

November 6, 2015 at 8:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

Ben Carson is lashing out at the media, calling recent questions into his violent childhood past “a bunch of lies” and “pathetic,” ABC News reports.

Said Carson: “It is just garbage. We have too many things that are important to deal with.”

He added: “The story is well-documented. If you choose not to believe it, if it doesn’t fit the narrative that you want, that’s fine. Let’s let the American people decide.”

Rubio Hits Back at Trump Over Finances

November 6, 2015 at 7:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio “hit back against Donald Trump’s criticism of his finances in the presidential race, calling it hypocrisy because of the real estate magnate’s bankruptcy record,” The Hill reports.

Said Rubio: “I find it ironic that the only person running for president that’s ever declared a bankruptcy, four times in the last 25 years, is attacking anyone on finances.”

Trump Ahead in Iowa

November 6, 2015 at 7:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

A new CNN/ORC poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ben Carson at 23%, Marco Rubio at 13%, Ted Cruz at 11% and Jeb Bush at 5%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 55% to 37%.

Quote of the Day

November 6, 2015 at 7:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard 74 Comments

“I am lost between the glory of Reagan — monuments everywhere, trumpets, the great hero — and the trials and tribulations of my sons.”

— Former President George H.W. Bush, quoted by the New York Times.

Trump Hits Carson for Violent Youth Story

November 6, 2015 at 7:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

Donald Trump “took a major swipe at Ben Carson on Thursday, picking up on reporting suggesting that the retired neurosurgeon fabricated anecdotes about his violent past in order to create a narrative of personal redemption, as Carson went on the attack against the network investigating his stories,” Politico reports.

Said Trump: “The Carson story is either a total fabrication or, if true, even worse-trying to hit mother over the head with a hammer or stabbing friend!”

Obama Admits Mideast Peace Isn’t Likely

November 6, 2015 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

President Obama “has concluded that a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians is beyond reach during his presidency and will press Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take steps to preserve the mere possibility of a two-state solution,” the Washington Post reports.

“The issue has taken on greater importance with the recent wave of stabbings carried out by Palestinians against Israelis, senior administration members said during a conference call with reporters about Netanyahu’s visit next week.”

Rubio’s Mysterious Business Expenses Follow Him

November 5, 2015 at 8:24 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio’s financial troubles have made People magazine, which notes “his financial past is coming back to haunt him – namely two years of credit card transactions from his time as speaker of the Florida House, the details of which remain a mystery.”

Carville Says Rubio Is GOP’s Best Bet

November 5, 2015 at 8:16 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

James Carville told Bloomberg that Sen. Marco Rubio is the GOP’s best possible nominee for president.

Said Carville: “He is the only hope that they have that they don’t get 45% of the vote, and they know it… I don’t think he can win, but he can get over 45… Unless Romney got in or something.”

Christie and Huckabee Don’t Qualify for Main Debate

November 5, 2015 at 8:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 77 Comments

Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee “have failed to qualify for the prime time Republican debate on November 10, making them the first top-tier candidates to be relegated to the undercard round,” CNN reports.

Meanwhile, George Pataki and Sen. Lindsey Graham “failed to qualify for the undercard debate, meaning they will not appear at all when Republicans gather in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, next week.”

Half of Trudeau’s Cabinet Members are Women

November 5, 2015 at 3:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 43 Comments

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “has named a young and ethnically diverse cabinet, with a ministerial team that for the first time in the country’s history is equally balanced between men and women,” The Guardian reports.

“The ministers – 15 women and 15 men – are mostly aged under 50, in a team marking both a generational change and a commitment to reflecting Canada’s diversity.”

Asked to explain the gender parity, Trudeau answered: “Because it’s 2015.”

The End of the Swing Voter

November 5, 2015 at 2:23 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 112 Comments

Jonathan Chait: “A new paper by political scientist Corwin Smidt… documents the decline of swing voters, or (as many political scientists call them) ‘floating voters,’ which means voters who pull the lever for a different party than the one they supported in the previous election. From the 1950s through the 1980s, 10 to 15 percent of voters floated between the two parties in presidential elections. Recently that rate has fallen to about 5 percent.”

“The sorting of American politics into semipermanent, warring camps unfolded over decades… But every effort to break the stalemate in the age of polarization has failed. Red-state Democrats and blue-state Republicans have tried to create separate, localized identities for their candidates that can allow them to compete in hostile terrain. It doesn’t work because elections at every level have increasingly grown nationalized. The divide between red and blue America is comprehensive.”

GOP Rules May Force Brokered Convention

November 5, 2015 at 1:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 54 Comments

Karl Rove: “At the past 16 Republican National Conventions, the party’s presidential nominee has been selected on the first ballot. That long streak might end next year. For the first time since 1948, when the GOP nominated Thomas E. Dewey for president after three rounds of voting, Republicans might take more than one ballot to settle on their nominee.”

“A few factors have increased the chances of a multi-ballot convention. First, Republicans have the largest field of serious contenders in history: 17 candidates entered the race and 15 remain. The bigger the field, the longer it could take to settle the contest.”

“What complicates the picture is the GOP’s rule requiring the 28 jurisdictions (states, territories and the District of Columbia) that vote before March 15 to award their delegates proportionally… Moreover, GOP rules allow for the creation of “superdelegates,” with more than half of state parties exercising the option to make their chairman, national committeewoman and national committeeman automatic delegates. These uncommitted delegates, 210 in all, could be the most fluid force in the convention if no candidate has locked in victory.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 5, 2015 at 12:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

“Well look, Jeb Bush has got the most money and he’s doing the worst in the national polls.”

— Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-PA), quoted by Roll Call, explaining why having just $2,600 cash on hand isn’t a problem.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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