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GOP Insiders Pressure Kasich to Get Out

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Politico: “A string of elected officials, GOP insiders and prominent donors officially threw their support behind Rubio on Monday, calling him their last chance to take down Donald Trump. Their statements had another common theme. Some explicitly called for Kasich to quit, while others stopped sent the same message by saying the Ohio Governor’s ongoing presence is holding Rubio back.”

“This is not what Kasich had in mind: The Ohio governor had hoped that if he could be the last governor standing, his record and experience would convince party power brokers to unite behind him in a challenge to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.”

No Real Path for Ted Cruz

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

GOP strategist Alex Castellanos emails with his latest perspective on the Republican presidential race: Ted Cruz is dead, Donald Trump is likely to win, but Marco Rubio still has a shot.

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Establishment Republicans Embrace Rubio

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“Mainstream Republican donors and elected officials are swiftly flocking to Sen. Marco Rubio amid a growing sense that is he is the last best chance to prevent Donald Trump from running away with the Republican nomination,” the Washington Post reports.

“But Rubio’s path remains narrow and perilous. He has yet to win a state, and a raft of major March 1 contests known as “Super Tuesday” offers few obvious chances for him to do so. And if Trump keeps racking up wins, it will become more difficult to blunt his progress. Increasingly, there is a recognition among Republican elites that if Trump is not slowed by the middle of March, it may be too late to prevent him from winning the nomination.”

For members: How the Establishment May Be Killing Rubio


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Cruz Fires Top Aide

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Sen. Ted Cruz announced that he had asked for the resignation of his senior communications director, Rick Tyler, for spreading a false report about Sen. Marco Rubio, the Huffington Post reports.

Cruz said that Tyler was “a good man” but that he had “committed a grave error of judgment” and that “even if it was true, our campaign should not have sent it.”

New York Times: “Mr. Cruz has been facing mounting allegations of dirty tricks by Mr. Rubio’s team over the false story. And the Cruz campaign has also been getting hammered after his allies spread a false rumor that Dr. Ben Carson was suspending his campaign — just as voting in the Iowa caucuses began.”

How Jeb Bush Burned Through $130 Million

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New York Times: “When Jeb Bush formally entered the presidential campaign in June, there was already more money behind him than every other Republican candidate combined. When he suspended his campaign on Saturday night in South Carolina, Mr. Bush had burned through the vast majority of that cash without winning a single state. It may go down as one of the least successful campaign spending binges in history.”

How George Killed Jeb (and the Republican Party)

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Jonathan Chait: “George W. Bush’s presidency did none of these things. His administration was an abject disaster both domestically and abroad. Jeb Bush never figured out how to divest himself from his brother’s failure, and by the end reduced himself to running openly as his heir, bringing Dubya to campaign with him in his South Carolina box canyon stand. The Bush disaster presented Jeb with a double trap he could never escape. His brand was poison for swing voters. And conservatives, who had fallen mostly in line with Dubya during his presidency, were forced to disavow him as a heretic by the end so that their ideology could escape the wreckage.”

“The direction of Republican politics since 2008 is mostly the continuing momentum of this explosion. One direction of Republican strategy has taken seriously the premise that Bush failed because of his moderation, and tried to steer the party toward a more austere version of the faith. That is the Cruz version. The Trump version is more of an inchoate rebellion against the party’s donor class and its ideas, embracing nationalism and affect. Marco Rubio represents the true continuation of Bushism within the party — massive tax cuts plus neoconservative foreign policy plus soft-pedaled social conservatism, all sold in a compassionate package with lots of high-profile outreach to Democratic constituencies. Rubio allows Republicans to double down on Bushism without saddling themselves with the liability of the Bush name or, by extension, acknowledging that they still believe Bush’s ideas work.”

Graham Floats Rubio-Kasich Ticket

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Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told WABC that Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. John Kasich should unite in an effort to bring down Donald Trump.

Said Graham: “I think a Kasich-Rubio ticket would be great. Rubio-Kasich, Kasich-Rubio — I think those combinations, if they could consolidate and come together, would be [a] very potent ticket in the fall and maybe help us stop Trump,” Graham said on the program before also floating a potential “Rubio-Kasich-Cruz alliance.”

For members: One Way Rubio Could Win

It’s Going to Be Hard to Stop Trump

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Mark Halperin: “Cruz is making noises about winning Texas and Arkansas; Kasich is making a big play in Michigan and his home state; and Rubio is eyeing his own home state. But the reality is that Trump is in a position where he could win all or nearly all of the 30 states that vote in this period. Even if he lost a few, his most ardent opponents in the party now concede, based on his performances in New Hampshire and South Carolina, that he will win the lion’s share of the delegates in this skein. Republican rules allow winner-take-all contests to begin on March 15, making a delegate comeback more feasible than in the other party, but it would be unheard of in the history of modern politics for a candidate to win almost all of the first 33 contests and the bulk of the delegates and then lose the nomination.”

“A weekend of pressing strategists in both parties for the most likely scenarios under which Clinton and Trump don’t have their nominations effectively sewn up by March 15 produced nothing that sounded plausible as of now, let alone likely.”

Quote of the Day

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“We just got an army of people and many women, who left their kitchens to go out and go door-to-door and to put yard signs up for me.”

— Gov. John Kasich, at a Virginia town hall meeting.

Knives Come Out In Bush World

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A former bundler for Jeb Bush tells CNN that GOP strategist Mike Murphy “made minimum of $14 million” running the Bush super PAC Right to Rise.

Murphy responded to the figure by calling it, “Absolute bullshit. That mystery donor should have the guts to call me and get straightened out.”

How the Establishment May Be Killing Rubio

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Since Marco Rubio’s second place finish in South Carolina pushed Jeb Bush out of the race, he’s gained some significant endorsements from GOP establishment figures such as Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. There’s even a rumored endorsement coming from Mitt Romney.

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Carson and Kasich Are Still Playing a Role

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First Read: “With the GOP contest now a three-man race, that doesn’t mean you should ignore the other two Republicans still running — John Kasich and Ben Carson. If Kasich is able to have enough money to survive two or three more weeks of campaigning, he could be a player in Michigan (March 8) and his home state of Ohio (March 15), which would hurt Rubio in those two states. And even though he finished sixth in South Carolina, Carson still captured 7% of the vote, which could potentially be going to someone else (Cruz? Trump?).”

Wonk Wire: Who gets Jeb’s votes?

Super PACs Have Avoided Attacking Trump

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New York Times: “The party’s collective shrug over Mr. Trump since he entered the presidential race last summer, and its stubborn unwillingness to treat him as a serious threat, is reflected by the paltry sum that both campaigns and outside groups have devoting to undermining him.”

“In a presidential campaign during which ‘super PACs’ spent $215 million, just $9.2 million, or around 4 percent, was dedicated to attacking Mr. Trump, even as he dominated the polls for months.”

Trump Quote of the Day

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“We won with everything. We won with highly educated, pretty well educated, and poorly educated. But we won with everything. Tall people, short people, fat people, skinny people. Just won.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by The Hill.

Rubio Seeks Cash from Bush Donors

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Bloomberg: “An influx of cash would be particularly welcome to Rubio, who lagged in early fundraising despite the support of some high-profile donors such as the hedge-fund manager Paul Singer. That’s partly because of a crowded GOP field, and the fact that Bush dominated support in their mutual home state of Florida. Bush’s super-PAC, Right to Rise, raised about a quarter of its record $118 million haul from the Sunshine State, helped by relationships forged during his two terms as Florida governor.”

Trump Leads in Bulk of Super Tuesday States

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“Donald Trump is leading in 10 of the 14 states set to vote in Republican primaries or caucuses over the next two weeks,” the New York Post reports.

“Recent polls show that Trump is ahead in Nevada, Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Louisiana.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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