The Washington Post notes that Allison Lundergran Grimes (D) is “unabashedly embracing the political upside of her gender,” is suggesting that Sen. Mitch McConnell “is not taking this female challenger (or other women) as seriously as he should.”
“Grimes’s focus on her gender follows years of efforts by other female candidates who have sought ways to be their authentic selves while also setting aside concerns that some voters might have about electing women to jobs traditionally held by men.”
Out this summer: The First Family Detail: Secret Service Agents Reveal the Hidden Lives of the Presidents by Ronald Kessler.
Rhode Island Public Radio: “As the longest serving mayor in Providence history, Vincent A. ‘Buddy’ Cianci Jr. is known both for his skills as a political showman and the criminal charges that twice forced him from City Hall. Now, at age 73 and almost done with his treatment for colon cancer, Cianci is considering another run for the top job in Rhode Island’s capital city. Because there’s a large field of candidates splitting the vote, the former mayor has a credible shot at winning.”
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Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) suggested that President Obama’s race “factored into opposition to the Affordable Care Act, sparking outrage on the part of one of his Republican colleagues,” National Journal reports.
Said Rockefeller: “I think it’s very important to take a long view at what’s going on. I’ll be able to dig up some emails that make part of the Affordable Care Act that doesn’t look good–especially from people who made up their mind that they don’t want it to work because they don’t like the president. Maybe he’s of the wrong color, something of that sort. I’ve seen a lot of that and I know a lot of that to be true.”
A new Public Policy Institute of California poll shows California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leads the state’s jungle primary with 48%, followed by Tim Donnelly (R) at 15% and Neel Kashkari at 10%.
Brown also has a 54% to 35% approval rate.
Alan Abramowitz notes that in U.S. Senate elections since the 1970s “voting decisions in these contests have become increasingly influenced by opinions of the incumbent president’s performance. This relationship set a new record in 2012.”
This makes it very hard for Democrats to offset predicted gains by Republicans in states like Montana and South Dakota by flipping Senate seats in states like Georgia or Kentucky.
“Between 2000 and 2012, almost 90% of seat switches in Senate elections were in a consistent partisan direction. Moreover, in the four federal elections between 2006 and 2012, this trend has become even stronger. Nearly all of the seat switches in this quartet of elections — 23 of 24, or 96% — have been in a consistent partisan direction.”
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “told a group of business elites and donors at a New York City fundraiser that he’s asking friends and supporters ‘to keep their powder dry’ as he mulls a 2016 presidential bid,” Politico reports.
“It was among the most explicit statements Ryan has made to a crowd about his process with regards to a presidential run. And it came at a time when political insiders have questioned how eager he is to run.”
The Wall Street Journal says former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is auditioning as a possible challenger to Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016.
“He slams Mrs. Clinton for her ties to Wall Street, her courting of corporate campaign cash and her vote for the Iraq war as senator, a jab he delivered during a trip through Iowa in December. Such outspoken criticism of Mrs. Clinton, rare among Democrats, inspires some leaders in the party’s left wing, who are disillusioned with President Barack Obama and soured by prospects of an unchallenged Clinton candidacy in 2016.”
“A Super PAC funded by liberal billionaire and environmentalist Tom Steyer has announced it will spend as much as $100 million this election season attacking Republicans in seven key states who it says are climate-science deniers,” NBC News reports.
“These states – all of which President Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012 – also play an important role in 2016, given that Iowa and New Hampshire are early presidential nominating contests, and that Colorado and Florida are top general-election battlegrounds.”
“Because the future is difficult to predict, I don’t want to foreclose any possibilities at this time.”
— Former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), quoted by the Center for Public Integrity, on why he still has $10 million in a campaign account.
Todd Purdum: “It’s the predominant paradox of contemporary American politics: If Republicans prevail in this year’s midterm congressional elections, it will be because of their party’s sharp-edged stances on topics like abortion and Benghazi, Obamacare and immigration, gay marriage and the minimum wage — issues that energize the GOP’s core base of support.”
“But if Republicans lose the race for the White House in 2016, it will be because of their party’s polarizing, out-of-step stances on those very same issues, which alienate much of the broader electorate the GOP needs to win a national contest in a country whose demographics and political realities are shifting under its feet.”
“With Tuesday’s primaries reinforcing the strength of the Republican establishment, House Democrats are reassessing their electoral strategy based on a major internal research project that shows their candidates stand a better chance when they portray Republicans as uncaring toward working-class Americans while they continue to back policies favoring the wealthy and corporate America,” the New York Times reports.
“Democrats could build on this distrust, the research showed, by emphasizing support for policies such as equal pay for men and women, ensuring that corporations pay a fair share of taxes, and increased job opportunities in the United States.”
“Hoping to push their agenda ahead of the presidential election, a group of prominent conservatives has devised a 121-page policy manifesto aimed at giving the Republican Party a message that will attract some of the middle-class voters the party lost in recent White House races,” the New York Times reports.
“The document, to be unveiled Thursday, features eight essays with proposals on issues including health care, taxes and education. The authors hope the book will help Republicans address the economic anxieties of Americans and nudge the party from its most polarizing positions and constant confrontations with President Obama.”
A new WBUR survey in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) is leading Steve Grossman (D) the Democratic gubernatorial primary, 51% to 7%.
In a possible general election match up, Coakley tops Republican frontrunner Charlie Baker (R), 39% to 30%.
“Republican voters who cast their ballots in the last days of Oregon’s primary — following news stories about Monica Wehby’s (R) ‘stalking’ incident — were less likely to support her in Oregon’s GOP Senate primary,” the Oregonian reports.
A new Siena College poll finds Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) leads primary challenger Adriano Espaillat (D), 41% to 32%.
John Della Volpe, who directs polling for Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, joins us for a fascinating look at young voters and what motivates them to get to the polls on Election Day.
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The Upshot now gives Democrats a 57% chance of retaining control of the U.S. Senate.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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