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Is the GOP Too Weak to Stop Trump?

January 7, 2016 at 8:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments

Time: “The GOP has awakened less than a month from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary to find itself in bed between a bombshell and a kamikaze. It’s a sobering dawn for a political party that seemed just a tweak or two away from glory. Republicans dominate America’s state legislatures and governors’ mansions. They control both houses of Congress.”

“The problem is that the party is weak at the national level, deeply divided into hostile camps, while Trump has the strength of a technological epoch at his back. … They won’t stop Trump because they can’t stop Trump.”

Chicago Lawyers Tried to Keep Video Secret

January 7, 2016 at 8:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

“City of Chicago lawyers, after meeting with Mayor Rahm Emanuel, demanded the Laquan McDonald family bury the video showing the killing of their son by a police officer,” the Daily Beast reports.

“Emanuel has maintained since McDonald’s death that he has never seen the dashcam video, but the emails prove the mayor knew exactly what the footage showed when city lawyers negotiated a deal that would at least delay the video’s release.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

January 7, 2016 at 7:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“I think without question he is qualified to make the cut to be prime minister of Canada.”

— Sen. Rand Paul, in an interview on Fox News Radio, poking fun at the discussion over Sen. Ted Cruz’s citizenship.


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Can Bernie Sanders Crack Nevada?

January 7, 2016 at 7:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“Hillary Clinton has been on the ground in Nevada since last April. Bernie Sanders only began building up his organization here late in the fall,” Politico reports.

“But the state that’s been touted as Clinton’s firewall against the Vermont senator in the event he generates any momentum out of the whiter and more liberal states of Iowa and New Hampshire is suddenly looking like it’s in play, potentially opening another unexpected early state front.”

GOP Race Gets Nasty in New Hampshire

January 7, 2016 at 7:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

Bloomberg: “Republican presidential candidates who represent the so-called establishment have staked their campaigns on emerging in New Hampshire as the viable alternative to real-estate mogul Donald Trump. They’re in each other’s way as they appeal to the same voter pool with the nation’s first primary a mere five weeks away. Now, they must calibrate how hard they can attack without alienating voters, hurting themselves or helping someone else.”

“New Hampshire is often caricatured as a stronghold of Yankee probity, soberly vetting politicians on behalf of the rest of the U.S. Yet the Granite State has turned muddy, thanks to a spate of angry advertising.”

Bush Gets $10 Million Super PAC Donation

January 7, 2016 at 7:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Hank Greenberg, “who built AIG into a world-wide financial powerhouse before its controversial government bailout, has donated $10 million to the super PAC backing Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush, making him one of the largest contributors in the 2016 race,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Ethanol Backers Mobilize Against Cruz in Iowa

January 7, 2016 at 7:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “The state’s biggest ethanol trade groups are in the midst of a multi-million-dollar campaign to stop Mr. Cruz from becoming the first presidential candidate in either party to win the state while opposing the standard since it was enacted.”

“For the trade groups that represent Iowa’s ethanol producers, Mr. Cruz represents an existential crisis: If he proves a presidential candidate can win Iowa without the approval of the ethanol lobby—represented here by a group called America’s Renewable Future—the fear is no candidate will ever back their agenda again.”

Will Clinton Sex Scandals Still Resonate?

January 7, 2016 at 7:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“The ghosts of the 1990s have returned to confront Hillary Clinton, released from the vault by Donald Trump and revved up by a 21st-century version of the scandal machine that almost destroyed her husband’s presidency,” the Washington Post reports.

“This is a moment that her campaign has long expected. What remains to be seen is whether a reminder of allegations of sexual impropriety against Bill Clinton — which were deemed to have varying levels of credibility when they were first aired — can gain new traction in a different context.”

Trump Threatens to Pull $1 Billion UK Investment

January 7, 2016 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Donald Trump “has threatened to cancel over 700 million pounds ($1 billion) of planned investments in golf courses in Scotland if Britain slaps him with a travel ban,” Reuters reports.

“The threat from Trump, owner of two golf courses in his mother’s homeland of Scotland, comes as British lawmakers prepare to hold a debate on a petition signed by over half a million people calling for him to be barred from the country after his proposal to stop Muslims entering the United States.”

Quote of the Day

January 7, 2016 at 6:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“I regret it every day, but it was the right decision for my family and for me.”

— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by NBC Connecticut, on not running for president.

Trump Says He’ll Write Book on Obama Citizenship

January 6, 2016 at 8:41 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

Donald Trump brushed off questions about whether President Obama is a natural-born citizen, Business Insider reports.

Said Trump: “Who knows? Who cares right now? We’re talking about something else, OK?”

He added: “I mean, I have my own theory on Obama. Someday I’ll write a book. I’ll do another book. It’ll do very successfully.”

Rubio Ditches Commercial Flights

January 6, 2016 at 5:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“After spending most of 2015 bragging about its thriftiness when it came to flying commercial and coach, Marco Rubio quietly has been using a private jet almost exclusively for his campaign travel for nearly two months and plans to continue to do so through the primaries,” Politico reports.

Trump Leads by Double-Digits in New Hampshire

January 6, 2016 at 4:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 29%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15%, Chris Christie at 11%, John Kasich at 11%, Jeb Bush at 10% and Ted Cruz at 10%. All other candidates receive 4% or less.

Key finding: Trump’s support has the greatest intensity among the top level candidates: 68% of his supporters say they’re firmly committed to him compared to 63% for Cruz, 58% for Bush, 46% for Rubio, 40% for Christie, and just 34% for Kasich on that metric.

Related for members: New Hampshire will be an epic race

Alabama Justice Insists Gay Marriage Ban Be Upheld

January 6, 2016 at 3:27 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 54 Comments

Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore issued an order saying that a ruling issued last March by the Alabama Supreme Court remains in effect and that probate judges “have a ministerial duty not to issue any marriage license contrary” to Alabama’s law and constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, the Birmingham News reports.

When Will We Know the GOP Nominee?

January 6, 2016 at 2:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

No one follows the primary calendar more closely than John Putnam, a political scientist at the University of Georgia. His site, Frontloading HQ, is indispensable for anyone trying to game out when the presidential primary race might be over.

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Widening ‘Trump Gap’ Presents GOP with a Problem

January 6, 2016 at 1:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments

“A widen­ing dis­tance between per­spect­ives about Don­ald Trump among Re­pub­lic­ans and all oth­er voters—the Trump gap—presents GOP lead­ers with a conun­drum as the primar­ies ap­proach,” Ron Brownstein writes.

“Re­pub­lic­an par­tis­ans and some oth­er con­ser­vat­ive-lean­ing con­stitu­en­cies are demon­strably warm­ing in their at­ti­tudes to­ward the blustery busi­ness ex­ec­ut­ive. But views of Trump gen­er­ally re­main stag­nant, or are even de­teri­or­at­ing, among adults who identi­fy as Demo­crats or in­de­pend­ents. With­in that mix, the groups at the core of the co­ali­tion that powered Pres­id­ent Obama’s two vic­tor­ies ex­press es­pe­cially tox­ic opin­ions about him.”

“The dy­nam­ic sug­gests that more Re­pub­lic­ans are grow­ing com­fort­able with the pro­spect of Trump win­ning the party nom­in­a­tion, even as res­ist­ance to him is so­lid­i­fy­ing among the voters he would need to win the gen­er­al elec­tion.”

Ideological Gap Within the GOP Is as Wide as Ever

January 6, 2016 at 12:52 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

Nate Silver: “When Republicans stand in opposition to Democrats, these differences don’t matter all that much. According to DW-Nominate, the most liberal Republicans in Congress are now to the right of the most conservative Democrats. But when the Republican Party is working on its own, choosing strategies, legislative priorities and candidates for office, they can reveal considerable dissent within the party. Should Republicans win the White House next year, they’ll probably have unified control of government. That might prove trickier for Republicans to manage than you might think, and now they’ll have to do it without Boehner at the helm.”

How Clinton Built a Diverse Campaign Staff

January 6, 2016 at 12:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

Fast Company notes that Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has hired more than 500 staffers nationwide.

Over 50% of staff is female and more than one-third are people of color.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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