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Missing U.S. Missile Found in Cuba

January 7, 2016 at 8:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

“An inert U.S. Hellfire missile sent to Europe for training purposes was wrongly shipped from there to Cuba in 2014, said people familiar with the matter, a loss of sensitive military technology that ranks among the worst-known incidents of its kind,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The unintended delivery of the missile to Cuba has confounded investigators and experts who work in a regulatory system designed to prevent precisely such equipment from falling into the wrong hands, said those familiar with the matter.”

Trump Comments on Rubio’s ‘Big Heels’

January 7, 2016 at 8:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

Donald Trump joined the media buzz over Marco Rubio’s high-heeled boots, saying “you won’t see me wearing them,” BuzzFeed reports.

Said Trump: “I don’t know what to think of those boots. It helps to be tall. I don’t know, they’re big heels. They’re big heels. I mean, those heels were really up there. But you know, it’s almost like it doesn’t matter too much. Probably, he would have been better off not going that route.”

He added: “I noticed he’s taken a lot of hits. I just hope it works out fine for him.”

Likely Voter Models Are Failing

January 7, 2016 at 8:14 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Pew Research: “In recent years, polling has missed the mark in several high-profile elections, drawing particular attention to the difficulties inherent in using surveys to predict election outcomes. These failures typically result from one or more of three causes: biased samples that include an incorrect proportion of each candidate’s supporters; change in voter preferences between the time of the poll and the election; or incorrect forecasts about who will vote. While not a new concern, the third of these – the difficulty of identifying likely voters – may be the most serious, and that is the focus of this study. Election polls face a unique problem in survey research: They are asked to produce a model of a population that does not yet exist at the time the poll is conducted, the future electorate.”

Another Quote of the Day

January 7, 2016 at 8:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

“I’d like to say that Donald Trump is the most outrageous and unqualified person ever to run for president. But really, that’s not fair to Ted Cruz.”

— Martin O’Malley, quoted by NBC News.

Trump Unloads on Clinton for Sex Scandals Again

January 7, 2016 at 8:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“Donald Trump again assailed Bill and Hillary Clinton Thursday for the former president’s sexual indiscretions,” NBC News reports.

“An Instagram video posted by Trump’s campaign features images of intern Monica Lewinsky, disgraced former congressman Anthony Weiner – a onetime political ally of the Clintons who resigned from Congress amid a sexting scandal – and criminally charged comedian Bill Cosby.”

Politico: Bill’s back, and so’s his baggage.

Many Non-GOP Supporters Can Still Vote for Trump

January 7, 2016 at 7:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

Amy Walter says “no one really knows for sure if the Trump campaign organization is actually actively registering or targeting these supportive potential voters. In other words, there’s plenty of evidence that those who are most likely to support Trump are either unable or unwilling to get to a polling booth or caucus site.”

“However, as seen in this chart, in many of the early states a voter doesn’t need to be registered as a Republican to vote in that state’s primary or participate in the caucus. In the case of Iowa, one can register with the party at the time of the vote.”

Rubio Goes After Christie Hard

January 7, 2016 at 7:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up new lines of attack against Gov. Chris Christie: bashing him directly on guns and Planned Parenthood, Politico reports.

Said Rubio: “Chris Christie has supported gun control. Chris Christie supported an assault weapons ban. That’s the reason that he got into politics to begin with. Chris Christie personally contributed to Planned Parenthood. Chris Christie has done a number of things that are very similar to the Obama agenda, and I just don’t think this country can afford to elect a president that will not stand up and undo the damage that a Barack Obama has done to this country.”

Cruz Says McCain Is Secretly Backing Rubio

January 7, 2016 at 4:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz told Bloomberg that Sen. John McCain’s questioning his eligibility for the presidency is his way of secretly trying to boost Marco Rubio’s chances at the Republican nomination.

Said Cruz: “I think it is no surprise to anybody that John McCain is going to be supporting Marco Rubio in this election. It’s no surprise at all that he’s trying to do what he can to help the candidate that he’s favoring who he thinks shares policy positions with him.”

Lawmakers Would Have to Disclose Sex with Lobbyists

January 7, 2016 at 3:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

“Lobbyists who have sex with a Missouri lawmaker or their staff would have to disclose it to the Missouri Ethics Commission,” the Kansas City Star reports.

A new bill introduced in the Missouri House “defines sex between lobbyists and legislators as a gift. As such, sexual relations would have to be included on monthly lobbyist gift disclosure forms.”

Can Democrats Reassemble the Obama Coalition?

January 7, 2016 at 1:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The electoral coalition that came together to put Barack Obama in the White House — millennials, people of color, college-educated whites and single women — is once again the key to the Democratic chances of retaining the presidency. As Ron Brownstein notes, these groups “are growing in the electorate, and if Democrats can turn them out and maintain their recent advantages among them, Republicans could win the presidency only by amassing dauntingly high margins among all other whites.”

But it remains to be seen whether a candidate other than Obama can pull the group together again.

Hillary Clinton seems intent on pursuing the same electoral strategy of mobilizing the Democratic base that Obama did successfully in 2008 and 2012. It makes sense in these polarized times but she continues to draw surprisingly weak ratings from these groups.

The 2016 campaign will be a very different campaign than Bill Clinton ran. As James Carville told the New York Times, “The highest-premium voter in ’92 was a voter who would vote for one party some and for another party some. Now the highest-premium voter is somebody with a high probability to vote for you and a low probability to turn out. That’s the golden list. And that’s a humongous change in basic strategic doctrine.”

One wildcard is whether Clinton, assuming she wins the nomination, can harness the enthusiasm generated by Sen. Bernie Sanders during the primaries. He can be a powerful force in a general election and appeals to many of these groups, especially young voters. Clinton will need to be careful not to push him away.

Another wildcard is that tensions between Democratic big city mayors and African-Americans over policing could possibly depress turnout in urban areas without Obama on the ballot.

Democrats will have an energized President Obama. It’s almost certain that he’ll be campaigning hard this fall for Democrats, knowing that much of his legacy rides on keeping Republicans out of the White House.

Rubio Mocks Media Coverage of His Boots

January 7, 2016 at 1:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 45 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio thinks the media frenzy over his trendy high-heeled boots is a troubling example of “where we are as a country,” Politico reports.

Said Rubio: “Let me get this right. ISIS is cutting people’s heads off, setting people on fire in cages, Saudi Arabia and Iran on the verge of a war, the Chinese are landing airplanes on islands that they built and say belong to them and what are international waters and in some ways territorial waters, our economy is flat-lined, the stock market is falling apart, but boy are we getting a lot of coverage about a pair of boots.”

He added: “This is craziness. Have people lost their minds?”

Cruz Says Obama Is Most Anti-Gun President Ever

January 7, 2016 at 1:16 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 48 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz told CNN that President Obama is “the most anti-gun president” in history.

Cruz’s campaign recently posted a photoshopped image on its website of the president wearing combat gear, with a caption that says, “Obama wants your guns.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

January 7, 2016 at 12:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

“They did an organizational meeting in Iowa and 58 people showed up. Now, how do they get 5,000 people going to a rally and only 58 people showing up to organize? Explain that to me.”

— Gov. John Kasich, quoted by the Washington Post, suggesting Donald Trump’s support isn’t what it seems.

Who Do You Side With?

January 7, 2016 at 12:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

Take the quiz to find out how your beliefs align with the presidential candidates.

Ted Cruz Is the New Nixon

January 7, 2016 at 11:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard 71 Comments

“The lazy conventional wisdom is that Ted Cruz is the new Barry Goldwater doomed to suffer an electoral landslide defeat should he win the Republican nomination,” Rich Lowry writes.

“Not only is this wrong about Cruz’s general-election chances, it may compare Cruz to the wrong 20th-century Republican forebear. The better analogue for Cruz might be Richard Nixon, not in the crudely pejorative sense, but as another surpassingly shrewd and ambitious politician who lacked a personal touch but found a way to win nonetheless… If Cruz wins the nomination, it will be on the strength of intelligence and willpower. He will have outworked, outsmarted and outmaneuvered everyone else.”

Erick Erickson: “Months before Ted Cruz declared he was running for President, he was outlining a path to victory in private meetings with skeptical conservatives. I know very few who came out of those meetings still doubting Cruz could win. Cruz has been methodically and systematically sticking to the path he mapped out.”

Trump Prepares Massive Rally in Vermont

January 7, 2016 at 10:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

Donald Trump’s campaign has reportedly distributed about 20,000 free tickets for an event in Burlington, VT at a theater that seats only about 1,400, the Burlington Free Press reports.

“Vermonters who plan to see Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speak on Thursday should prepare for ‘airport-like’ security and sizable crowds after the campaign issued tickets for more than 10 times the number of available seats.”

NBC News: “The Trump campaign’s effort to turn out huge lines of supporters outside the event is no subtle signal to Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.”

McCain Trolls Cruz on Citizenship

January 7, 2016 at 10:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was eager to raise questions on KFYI about the Sen. Ted Cruz’s citizenship and eligibility to run for president.

Said McCain: “I think there is a question. I am not a constitutional scholar on that. I think it’s worth looking into. I don’t think it’s illegitimate to look into it.”

Explaining the Trump-Cruz Bromance

January 7, 2016 at 10:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

First Read: “Sure, Donald Trump resurrected the birther debate over Ted Cruz’s eligibility to be president (though, in fairness, Trump is right that he didn’t bring up the question by himself — he was asked by news organizations). And, yes, Trump has jabbed at Cruz over immigration. But for the most part, and certainly compared with the rest of the field, Trump and Cruz have had a bromance in the outsider/insurgent lane of the GOP contest.”

“For his part, Cruz has gone out of his way — this entire ’16 race — not to pick fights with Trump. And these numbers from our December national NBC/WSJ poll help explain why: Cruz scores higher among Republican primary voters who say they could see themselves POTENTIALLY support Trump. Cruz gets 38% of these voters, Ben Carson gets 21%, while Marco Rubio gets just 15% and Jeb Bush 7%. (Given that the poll was last month while Carson was still afloat, it’s likely that the Cruz percentage could be even higher now.) But among GOP primary voters who would NEVER support Trump, it’s Rubio who leads at 26%. These numbers drive home two points: 1) There are two completely different lanes in this GOP contest, 2) Ted Cruz has every incentive NOT to attack Trump.”