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Paul and Bush Face GOP Primary Obstacles

April 12, 2015 at 9:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

Sen. Rand Paul “may have a problem with women, and Jeb Bush already has been written off by a large share of potential primary voters, according to a new Bloomberg Politics national poll that underscores the wide-open nature of the race four months before the first primary debate.”

“Just 11 percent of Republican and independent women in the poll said they’d seriously consider supporting Paul… compared to 22 percent of men. No other Republican contender has a worse spread.”

“Bush’s challenges with potential primary voters are well established. His support for easing immigration laws runs counter to the views held by many conservatives. He also backs Common Core academic standards, which have fueled fears within the party, while other presidential contenders have criticized them as akin to creating a national school board. Bush is also contending with voter anxiety about electing a third Bush president.”

Quote of the Day

April 12, 2015 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

“She was a supporter of mine in the general election, she was an outstanding secretary of State, she is my friend. I think she would be an excellent president.”

— President Obama, quoted by The Hill, on Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.

Walker Finds National Politics is Much Harder

April 12, 2015 at 8:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

Gov. Scott Walker “has always bragged about his superior political skills, citing the fact that he’s won three gubernatorial elections in four years. But in recent weeks, he’s learned just how much harder presidential politics is than Wisconsin politics. For one thing, people pay much closer attention,” Politico reports.


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Obama Says Partisanship Over Iran Crosses Line

April 11, 2015 at 7:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

President Obama “says that partisan wrangling in Congress over the emerging nuclear agreement with Iran has gone beyond the pale,” the AP reports.

“The president said Saturday he isn’t surprised that some Iranian leaders are criticizing certain provisions of the deal. But he says he is dismayed that some Republican members of Congress are giving more credence to the Iranian leader’s interpretation of the deal than they are to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s explanations.”

Atwater Backs Out of Senate Bid

April 11, 2015 at 7:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

“Just as he looked like a front-runner to replace Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida CFO Jeff Atwater announced Saturday he would not run for the seat,” Politico reports.

“The Rubio and Atwater decisions are setting off the very type of nightmare scenarios Republican Party leaders were hoping to avoid in Florida, a state the GOP essentially needs to win to carry that White House but that trends Democratic in presidential election years.”

Clinton Campaign Seeks No Drama This Time

April 11, 2015 at 5:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Politico: “During an hour-long meeting where bagels were served, Robby Mook, who will serve as campaign manager, distributed a mission statement to all aides in which he detailed the core values the campaign organization will be based on: diversity, discipline and humbleness, according to a Democratic operative who attended the meeting.”

“The memo can be seen as an attempt by Mook and senior staffers to set the campaign off on the right collaborative note — last time, Clinton’s operation was crippled by infighting and disagreement among the top aides.”

Meanwhile, the AP reports two advisers described Clinton’s strategy as having “echoes of President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign.”

Obama Holds Historic Meeting with Castro

April 11, 2015 at 5:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

President Obama and Cuban President Raúl Castro “symbolically ended more than five decades of hostility between their nations, with a meeting on Saturday on the sidelines of a summit of countries from across the Americas,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“It was the first substantive meeting between U.S. and Cuban presidents since 1956.”

New York Times: “If Mr. Obama was ready to forget past grudges, Mr. Castro was not. He gave a lengthy speech on Saturday that included a recitation of Cuban grievances against the United States — including its support for Fulgencio Batista, the Bay of Pigs invasion and its opening of the prison at Guantánamo Bay — sometimes pounding the table for emphasis. But Mr. Castro also made clear that he did not blame Mr. Obama for the legacy of bad blood between their two countries.”

How Close Will Clinton Stay to Obama?

April 11, 2015 at 5:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

New York Times: “He defeated her in a grueling Democratic nomination battle. Then she pursued his agenda across the world as secretary of state. Now, the delicate relationship between Hillary Rodham Clinton and President Obama is about to get even more complicated.”

“For months, Mrs. Clinton and her team have pored over Mr. Obama’s poll ratings, policies and constituencies, seeking to solve a central riddle for the campaign she is about to begin: How can she run for president as her own person, without criticizing the sitting president she served — while her Republican opponents will be working to demonize them both?”

Dan Balz: “Her every step will be analyzed for signs of change or continuity. Has she learned from her loss to then-candidate Barack Obama in the 2008 primaries? If so, what? Does she act entitled or hungry? Has she shifted on foreign policy issues since she was Obama’s secretary of state?”

Quote of the Day

April 11, 2015 at 8:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 71 Comments

“Humility is the order of the day. Last time, they launched as a big juggernaut cloaked in the veil of inevitability and at 20,000 feet. There was a tremendous backlash to that.”

— David Axelrod, quoted by the Washington Post, on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign kickoff this weekend.

Why Rand Paul Should Be Taken Seriously

April 11, 2015 at 7:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 48 Comments

New York Times: “Paul’s (relative) unorthodoxy makes him that rare candidate whose policy views draw gobs of media attention: He’s teaming up with Democrats to scale back mandatory-minimum drug sentencing and likens the war on drugs to Jim Crow? (The same Rand Paul who once said he opposed parts of the Civil Rights Act?) He’s in the same party as Senator John McCain, and yet he opposed arming the Syrian rebels?”

“But in fact, it’s the boring details of the organization that Paul is building that provide the best reason to take him seriously. If Paul’s views are unusually idealistic, the ground game that his team is planning is pure realpolitik. His staff is focused on the delegate math and party rules that could determine the next Republican nominee — a game-theory style of presidential politics at which the Paul team is particularly adept.”

The Week: How Rand can win

Obama and Castro Shake Hands

April 11, 2015 at 6:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

“President Obama and President Raúl Castro of Cuba shook hands here on Friday night, and American officials said they would hold discussions on Saturday during a gathering of regional leaders, in the first full-fledged meeting between presidents of the United States and Cuba in more than a half-century,” the New York Times reports.

“The expected encounter was not on Mr. Obama’s official schedule, but it held deep significance for the regional meeting, as the president’s move to ease tensions with Cuba has overshadowed the official agenda.”

O’Malley Strikes Populist Tone in Iowa

April 11, 2015 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 53 Comments

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley’s (D) “biggest applause line during a speech here this week came as he listed ways the U.S. could pay for a higher minimum wage, an expansion of Social Security and more spending on infrastructure and education,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said O’Malley: “We do it by asking the wealthiest among us to believe enough in their country to actually make the sort of investments we made in other generations instead of offshoring their profits and offshoring their wealth.”

Politico: “Clinton aides point to O’Malley as the most viable alternative candidate, believing he will eventually pick up support from many of the liberal activists currently urging Warren to run. The silver lining in his low name recognition is that he has an opportunity to introduce himself to the American people on his own terms.”

Clinton Begins Her Campaign

April 11, 2015 at 5:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

Hillary Clinton’s “long-anticipated entry into the 2016 presidential race took shape Friday, with Democrats saying she will announce her candidacy on Sunday and begin a series of deliberately small discussions with voters next week,” the Washington Post reports.

“The low-key rollout — no big rallies or lengthy speeches — will end months of speculation surrounding the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Clinton intends to begin her second White House bid via social media, probably Twitter, and include a video that introduces her economic-centered campaign message before jetting to Iowa next week for public appearances. Behind the scenes, meanwhile, Clinton’s fundraising machine is coming to life.”

New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton’s team is also planning a slow expansion of its staff over the course of the year, deliberately avoiding the appearance of a battleship heading into the fight, as her organization seemed on her entry into the 2008 Democratic campaign.”

Rubio and Bush Share a Flight

April 11, 2015 at 5:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“In a sign of how literally close they are, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio sat next to each other on the same Friday night flight to Miami from Nashville, where they separately spoke at the National Rifle Association’s annual convention,” Politico reports.

“The coincidental encounter had a just-like-old-times feel to it, with the one-time mentor and one-time protégé talking like the friends they are – a stark contrast to the tensions being expressed by their top supporters.”

Justice Department Warns Staff Over Prostitutes

April 10, 2015 at 5:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

“The Justice Department is sending a memo to all of its employees Friday warning them that soliciting prostitutes is a violation of department policy, whether off duty or on,” the Washington Post reports.

“The caution follows recent allegations that Drug Enforcement Administration agents had “sex parties” with prostitutes hired by local drug cartels in Colombia.”

The Risks of Clinton’s ‘Go Small’ Kick Off

April 10, 2015 at 5:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

First Read: “The early events likely will be small — reminiscent of that ‘Listening Tour‘ as she began to run for that New York Senate seat in 2000. In other words, she is going to be going door-to-door, meeting with voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, etc. one-on-one… The lesson learned from 2008: Clinton isn’t as comfortable going big — a la Barack Obama or even her husband. But there is a risk to this go-small strategy. It lacks a message.”

“Indeed, Clinton’s early rollout is answering the process question (how the announcement will go down, etc.), but it isn’t answering the message question (what her campaign will be about). Now it’s likely we will see a here’s-why-I’m-running-for-president speech from Clinton next month; the April ‘Listening Tour’ showers will bring May’s bigger flowers. But given how a month seems like an eternity in our new media landscape, Clinton’s challenge will be running without answering that message question.”

Most Want a Primary Challenger for Hillary Clinton

April 10, 2015 at 3:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 51 Comments

A new Bloomberg National poll finds that 72% of Democrats and independents said it would be a good thing for the Democratic Party if Hillary Clinton were to face a “serious” challenger for the presidential nomination.

Also interesting: “Clinton will confront continued skepticism about whether she has been truthful in saying that she’s turned over all e-mails relevant to her time as secretary of state. Fifty-three percent of Americans say they think she purposely withheld or deleted some relevant e-mails from a private account and home server she used while in office. Just 29 percent of respondents said they thought she was being truthful.”

Clinton Team Woos Reporters

April 10, 2015 at 11:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 45 Comments

“On Thursday night, Hillary Clinton’s chief of staff John Podesta held a private dinner at his Washington home with campaign reporters, part of a larger Clinton-team effort to build a rapport with the men and women who will spend the next 18 months covering Clinton’s bid for the White House,” Politico reports.

“That effort is seen as a necessity for a candidate who, in the early months of 2015, has had no safe harbor in the media.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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