Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: “Obama’s greatest setback to date has been the 2010 midterm elections. Gains that Republicans scored in the House and Senate still circumscribe his agenda. It is no surprise, then, that the Obama White House wants to achieve something no other president has ever done: Retake full control of Congress in a midterm… Yet as next year’s battle for Congress begins to intensify, the odds favor the Republicans holding the House and getting yet another shot at the Senate.”

Stu Rothenberg: ” At this point in the cycle, Democrats probably need to put at least another two dozen additional districts into play… and hold most of their own vulnerable seats to have a chance of netting 17 seats in the midterm elections. It’s a very tall order.”

Even though the RNC autopsy report clearly favored primaries over caucuses, the Des Moines Register
doesn’t see any problems for the Iowa caucuses.

“The report… seems to bode well for the
first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. It doesn’t specifically call for
keeping Iowa first, but it gives a nod to tradition.” It then cites the
actual language: “Recognizing the traditions of several states that have
early nominating contests, the newly organized primaries would begin
only after the ‘carve-out’ states have held their individual elections.”

But the Boston Globe
notes that if Iowa “switches to a primary, it would disrupt a sort of
gentlemen’s agreement with New Hampshire that has allowed the two states
to operate in relative harmony.”

John Avlon: “South Carolina politics is a full-contact spectator sport, and the 18-candidate special election on Tuesday is shaping up to be a scrum for the ages, with low blows and high expectations. This is an old-fashioned street fight in a state where the Tea Party, evangelicals, and the New South all intersect.”

Poll close at 7 pm ET and First Read notes “only about 30,000 voters are expected to participate in the special primary.”

Bloomberg has an excellent series on the GOP’s lock on the House of Representatives.

“One big reason the Republicans have this edge: their district boundaries are drawn so carefully that the only votes that often matter come from fellow Republicans.”

“The 2010 elections, in which Republicans won the House majority and gained more than 700 state legislative seats across the nation, gave the party the upper-hand in the process of
redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of congressional seats. The
advantage helped them design safer partisan districts and maintain their
House majority in 2012 — even as they lost the presidential race by
about 5 million votes.”