A new CNN/ORC International poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) holds a slim four point edge over challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), 50% to 46%.
Key finding: “What might be a troubling data point for Grimes is the number of Democrats — 16% — who said they are supporting or leaning towards supporting McConnell.”
A new Rasmussen survey has McConnell ahead by five points, 46% to 41%.
National Journal: “Some trackers have been following the same candidate for years–around the state, around the country, on planes, on buses, in town halls, in swanky fundraisers–all on the off chance that they’ll get the candidate on tape saying something politically distasteful or flip-flopping on a position.”
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First Read: “The GOP got all of its desired candidates in the top Senate races — meaning there isn’t a flawed Christine O’Donnell, Todd Akin, or Sharron Angle… Republicans not winning back the Senate and not picking up double-digit House seats could be a nightmare for the party. For one thing, it will hurt recruiting in 2016 (which expects to be a tougher year map- and electorate-wise). It could spark leadership fights. And it would rekindle the central ideological debate inside the party — should it be more conservative or more pragmatic? (Conservatives will argue if the party comes up short, that the compromise candidates didn’t fire up the base; the establishment wing will argue that the brand damage done by the conservative wing was to blame.)”
“Currently, there are two schools of thought among Republicans. One school (those focused on the Senate races) is that winning back the Senate is the end-all, be all. But the other school of thought (especially those with an eye on 2016) is that they’d prefer coming JUST short of Senate control, because a GOP in charge of both the House and Senate could potentially help Hillary Clinton. But don’t underestimate the negative consequences of a Republican Party coming up short with this map and in this political climate.”
GOP sources tell Politico “that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states.”
The Washington Post‘s forecasting model now suggests Republicans have only a 52% chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate — down from an 86% chance in July.
“It’s not that races have narrowed, but that the model has begun weighting information differently — mainly by (a) incorporating polling data (where possible) after the relevant primaries, and by (b) increasing the weight that polls have in the forecast. What this suggests is that in several states, Democrats are arguably ‘out-performing’ the fundamentals.”
“It’s a punch to the gut.”
— Secretary of State John Kerry, quoted by The Hill, on the beheading of journalist Steven Sotloff by ISIS.
Pew Research: “Our data show that those who say they have sought office tend to be white, male and well-educated. In fact, while women account for half of the adult population, they are just a quarter of those who say they have run for office. This is in keeping with other research that has documented the imbalance… There is a similar imbalance when it comes to race and ethnicity, with whites disproportionately more likely to have sought office and blacks and Hispanics less likely to have done so.”
Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) is looking for an intern this fall but “mushy pleasers/appeasers” should not apply, the Washington Post reports.
From the help-wanted ad: “HINT: vapid granolas who fear guns, hate babies, are ashamed of America, and think Islamic terrorists and illegal aliens are just misunderstood will not be comfortable here.”
Despite flaunting his $18 watch in campaign ads, the Chicago Sun Times reports that Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner (R) disclosed that he belongs to a an “exclusive wine club that cost upward of $100,000 to join.”
Though Charlie Crist (D) is seeking to become just the second ex-governor to return to his old job from Florida since statehood, a new Smart Politics analysis finds that nearly 150 have done so across the nation since the late 1700s.
A new University of Massachusetts at Lowell poll finds Martha Coakley (D) leading Charlie Baker (R) in the race for governor by nine points, 41% to 32%, with venture capitalist Jeff McCormick (I) at 7%.
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) is pushing for a national convention to amend the Constitution,” The Hill reports.
“The Oklahoma Republican, who has grown disenchanted with gridlock in Washington, will officially launch his effort after he retires from the Senate in a few months. Support for a convention of the states to overhaul the nation’s charter document has increased among conservatives, who are frustrated by Congress’s failure to reform entitlement programs.”
Brendan Nyhan: “Why is the campaign consultant market so inefficient? First, it suffers from what social scientists call an asymmetric information problem. The buyers (candidates) know much less about the service being provided than the sellers (consultants) — the same reason that consumers have a hard time making informed choices on health care. As a result, consultants are often hired based on their prominence or relationships with party insiders rather on than their past performance or other measures of quality.”
“Second, there are few good sources of data about firm performance. Consultant client lists are often not broadly publicized, preventing firms from being held accountable for their performance in past campaigns.”
Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) has Democratic fundraisers that “he would enter the presidential race even if front-runner Hillary Clinton is a candidate, suggesting she would face at least some competition for her party’s nomination from an established elected official if she runs,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
National Journal notes the Friday news dump is “alive and well” and compiles a list of the biggest news dumps of the summer.
A new George Washington University Battleground Poll finds that 70% of likely voters nationwide feel that the country is on the wrong track. Just 21% say that the nation is headed in the right direction.
Republicans hold an edge on a generic congressional ballot, 46% to 42%. In states with a competitive U.S. Senate race, the GOP has a 16-point advantage on this generic ballot, 52% to 36%.
Said pollster Ed Goeas: “All of these measures exceed where the GOP was at this point in the 2010 cycle.”
“Whatever these murders think they’ll achieve by killing innocent Americans like Steven, they have already failed. They failed because, like people around the world, Americans are repulsed by their barbarism. We will not be intimidated. Their horrific acts only unite us as a country and stiffen our resolve to fight against these terrorists and those who make the mistake of harming Americans will learn that we will not forget and that our reach is long and that justice will be served.”
— President Obama, quoted by McClatchy, on the beheading of journalist Steven Sotloff.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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