A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leading Chris Shays (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 39%, and beating Linda McMahon (R), 50% to 43%.

However, Shays would beat Susan Bysiewicz (D) if she was the Democratic nominee, 48% to 37%.

Though primary numbers were not released, they show McMahon “has a large lead” in the GOP primary contest with Shays.

Attention Chris Christie and Sarah Palin: The deadline to get on the Florida Republican party ballot is October 31, CNN reports.

The next filing deadlines: South Carolina on November 1, Michigan on November 15 and Missouri on November 22.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire’s filing period ends November 18, but Secretary of State William
Gardner has the authority to change the filing period to accommodate a possible earlier primary date.

“Not sure if he saw the movie?”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico, on David Axelrod’s comment that Obama’s re-election was going to be a “titanic struggle.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Mitt Romney leading Rick Perry in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 10%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Key finding: “We started this poll on Thursday night before the debate and in those interviews the race was neck and neck with Romney at 33% and Perry at 31%. But in interviews done Friday-Sunday Romney’s lead expanded to double digits at 29-19. More telling might be what happened to Perry’s favorability numbers after the debate — on Thursday night he was at 63/23 with Florida Republicans. Friday-Sunday he was at 48/36. Perry’s poor performance may or may not prove to be a game changer nationally but it definitely appears to have hurt his image in the key state where it occurred.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) father tells National Review that his son will make the final decision about a presidential bid. But he claims not to know much about his son’s thinking.

Said Bill Christie: “I’ve never asked him if he’s going to run. I trust if it’s going to happen, I’d be hearing it from him. I tell him, just let me hear any good news, but let me hear it first, or at least before you announce it to the world.”

However, the elder Christie added: “I know he’d be a great president. He has always been a leader. I think he would beat Obama.”

A new American Research Group poll in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%.

All other candidates are in the single digits.

This is a very funny video.

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Despite a string of statements saying he wouldn’t run for president, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) left the door slightly open last night — if for no other reason that it would be insulting to the many urging him to reconsider.

First Read: “The news that Christie is reconsidering and has a few weeks to decide
on a White House run couldn’t have come at a worse time for current GOP
front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. It freezes the field, and
might make it a little more difficult to raise money in these final days
of the 3rd fundraising quarter. (If you’re a GOP donor who
finds Christie appealing, and you think there’s the chance he might get
in, you’re not cutting a check to either Perry or Romney.)”

Ben Smith: “The most important Republican moneymen in the country, Paul Singer and David Koch, are waiting on him, as are any number of donors and elected officials. This makes it much harder for Romney to consolidate his advantage on Perry. It also makes it harder for Perry to expand his circle of support. And so we’re all pretty much waiting for Chris Christie’s inner guidance.”

Two new Quinnipiac polls provide more evidence the 2012 presidential election may be decided in the Rust Belt.

In Pennsylvania, just 43% approve of President Obama’s job performance, while 51% say he doesn’t deserve a second term.

In Ohio, just 42% approve of his job performance, while 51% say he doesn’t deserve re-election.

That said, Obama still holds narrow leads over Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in head-to-head match-ups in both states.

For more on the two polls, see Poll Watch Daily.

Whether it’s Republicans begging New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) to run for president or President Obama being forced to simultaneously reassure and reprimand his base over the weekend, The Note points out, “The overall restiveness of voters out there should not be underestimated.”

“When almost 80 percent of voters say they believe the country is on the wrong track and more Americans than ever identify themselves as independents the major parties have to recognize that the same-old, same-old campaign strategies just aren’t going to cut it this time. We’ve also been struck by the number of seasoned campaign pros who are convinced that this will be the year where a strong third party candidate will emerge. Let the speculation continue.”

Prepare for another day of chatter about whether New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) will run for president. But this video compilation is pretty much all you need to see to know he’s unlikely to run.

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A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania finds that by a 52% to 40% majority, voters want to continue the state’s current winner-take-all Electoral College system, rather than switch to a system proposed by Republicans where Electoral College votes are awarded based on the winner in each congressional district.

Voters say by a 57% to 32% that Republicans want to switch to a district-by-district count to help Republican presidential candidates, rather than to better reflect the will of the voters.