Despite one new poll showing President Obama’s approval bouncing back, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds his approval rating has dropped to a low point of 41%.

Key findings: By a 33% to 24% margin, Americans say their midterm election vote will be to signal opposition to the president rather than to signal support, though 41% say their vote will have nothing to do about Obama. In addition, 48% of voters say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who’s a solid supporter of the Obama administration, versus 26% who say they’re more likely to vote for that candidate.

Meanwhile, Republicans hold a one-point edge over Democrats on which party registered voters prefer to control Congress, 44% to 43%,

David Jolly (R) beat Alex Sink (D) in the “closely-watched, extremely expensive and relentlessly negative battle for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, signaling trouble for Democrats as they head into the midterm elections and face the weight of Obamacare,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“It was a deflating moment for Democrats, who were already facing a
tough November and saw in Sink a buffer from the health care attacks.
And it was a crushing blow to Sink, the former state CFO who narrowly
lost her 2010 race for governor to political rookie millionaire Rick
Scott.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Democrats have reclaimed the lead on the generic Congressional ballot, 43% to 40%, after trailing by two points in January. Democrats have poor approval ratings at 35% to 56%, but they’re better than Republicans at 23% to 67%.

Also interesting: “One key difference is that Democrats are at least happy with their own party in Congress, giving it a 66/21 approval, while Republicans give their own a negative assessment at 43/48.”

First Read notes that tonight’s special congressional election in Florida between Alex Sink (D) and David Jolly (R) can help us answer this question: “What’s the more powerful force right now — an individual campaign or the overall political environment?”

“Sink has a lot of the intangibles on her side. She has more money, a higher name ID (after running for governor in 2010), an opponent whose previous job was a lobbyist (about as despised of a political occupation as you can have), and a third-party candidate (Lucas Overby) who would probably take more votes away from the Republicans. So a Sink win would be a blueprint for survival for skittish Democrats: If you run a superior race, hold most of the intangibles, and take the health-care issue head on, you can survive.”

“On the flip side, a Sink loss and Jolly win will rattle a lot of Democrats, because it would prove that the environment — including a more GOP-leaning electorate — trumps everything else. If a B-minus candidate running a C+ campaign who happens to be a lobbyist can beat someone who has more of the intangibles on her side, then that is going to scare the Mark Udalls, Jeanne Shaheens, and Jeff Merkleys running for re-election in blue/purple states in November.”

“There is a bogus poll out there. I can sense the people of my state. When I travel around, which I do constantly, they like me, and I am very grateful.”

— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by The Hill, disputing a poll that showed him with a 30% approval rate in Arizona.

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) “is putting the strength of his formidable political machine behind a Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor whose fate could have major implications for Reid’s own three-decade congressional career. The race is rapidly becoming a proxy war between Reid and popular Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), who is viewed by both parties as the toughest potential challenger to Reid in 2016,” Politico reports.

“If a Democrat were to win the lieutenant governor’s race, it’s widely believed that Sandoval wouldn’t challenge Reid, since it would mean turning over the governorship to a Democrat if Sandoval won. But that calculation changes if a Republican captures the lieutenant governor’s seat in November.”

“All the attack ads and campaigning end today, as voters in Pinellas County’s nationally watched political battle send a new representative to Congress,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“An unprecedented $12 million has poured into the hotly contested race between Republican David Jolly and Democrat Alex Sink, with politicos split on who will claim victory, what it will mean for the political parties, what it will say about Obamacare and what it will signal for the nationwide congressional elections later this year.”

Politico: What to watch for tonight

David Hawkings: “Whatever the outcome of Tuesday’s tight congressional contest in Tampa Bay, this footnote is assured: The winner will become the 64th person in the current House first sent to the Capitol by a special election. That’s an astonishing 15 percent of the membership.”