Curt Clawson (R) won the Republican nomination in the Florida special-election race to replace former Rep. Trey Radel (R-FL) — “and he is now likely to be the district’s next member of Congress,” Roll Call reports.
“The tea party will likely claim credit for the win. Clawson overtly aligned himself with the conservative base of the party, but he also broke from the crowd thanks to his own self-funding. He loaned his campaign $2.65 million, according to his pre-primary Federal Election Report.”
“If I was Tom and I was looking for some excitement, I wouldn’t run as
an independent for governor in a Republican state. He’d be better off if
he bought a new sports car and got a girlfriend and got it out of his
system.”
— Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson, quoted by CNN, on Tom Ervin joining the gubernatorial race.
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An unnamed House member is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, Roll Call reports.
“According to the three-page OCE quarterly report, which disclosed no member names, the Ethics Committee will release the name of a new member under investigation no later than Sunday — meaning the announcement will likely come by Friday.”
A new American Values/Family Research Council survey of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents finds that 82% said they agree that marriage should be confined as being only between a man and a woman and that 75% “completely disagreed” that officials should be working to redefine marriage to include same-sex couples.
Marionville, Missouri Mayor Dan Clevenger “resigned Monday night for making anti-Semitic comments in the wake of the arrest of white supremacist Frazier Glenn Miller and after aldermen voted 4-1 to start the impeachment process,” the Springfield News-Leader reports.
The New York Times has a very nice comparison chart of the forecasts made by the top election handicappers.
Mitt Romney “has made a personal donation of $10,000 to former Virginia governor Robert F. McDonnell’s legal defense fund,” the Washington Post reports.
“McDonnell and his wife, Maureen, were indicted in January on federal charges of bribery and fraud involving their relationship with a prominent Virginia businessman and campaign donor. The McDonnells are scheduled to face trial in July.”
“In the final weeks of the Kentucky Republican primary election, U.S. Senate candidate Matt Bevin’s (R) chief spokeswoman has left the campaign for an unknown reason,” WFPL reports.
“At least two field operatives have also left the Bevin campaign in recent weeks even as the Tea Party-backed candidate is beginning to run television ads refuting many of McConnell’s attacks.”
Charlie Cook: “Although the Senate did pass comprehensive immigration reform last year, the chances of any kind of significant reform passing the House this year are low at best. Optimists hope that in June or July, after many Republican incumbents have their primaries behind them, or possibly in a lame-duck session after the election, the House will take up the issue. The smart money is against that happening.”
“First, the votes just don’t seem to be there. Second, House Republican insiders, even those who privately would like to see a bill pass, are pessimistic because many in their ranks do not trust that Obama and the Democrats won’t hang them out to dry. Their fear is that even if the House passed something, which would undoubtedly create enormous divisions and political problems in their conservative base, they have little confidence that Democrats wouldn’t move the goalposts on them, leaving the GOP with no progress on immigration reform but having a badly divided party.”
Louisiana state Rep. Thomas Carmody (R) “scrapped his proposal to make the Holy Bible the official state book before it could go to a full vote of the state House of Representatives,” the New Orleans Times Picayune reports.
“The bill had become a distraction, he said. In introducing the legislation, Carmody always maintained he was not taking steps to establish a state religion, but rather to educate people.”
“The George Washington Bridge may not be the only one used in an apparent act of political retribution by appointees of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and a familiar name in that scandal has surfaced anew,” CNN reports.
“Last year, the mayor of Jersey City was supposed to meet with the state’s transportation commissioner about a construction project that would temporarily close a section of the Pulaski Skyway, an aging bridge and elevated highway badly in need of an overhaul. But when Democrat Steven Fulop decided not to cross party lines and publicly support Christie’s re-election, a meeting with Commissioner James Simpson was canceled.”
Interviews point fingers at a former Christie deputy, Bridget Anne Kelly, who last summer apparently authored the now-infamous email: “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.”
Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) is undergoing emergency heart surgery, Roll Call reports.
His office confirmed a report from the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal, but did not provide any further details other than to note in a statement that he “is receiving excellent care.”
“A splintered Supreme Court voted 6-2 that states may end racial preferences without violating the U.S. Constitution,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The case came from Michigan, which in 2006 passed a voter initiative ending racial preferences. A federal appeals court had struck down the measure, finding that it served to disadvantage minorities in the political process.”
“Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for a plurality, said that the case wasn’t about resolving the debate over affirmative action, but rather ‘who may resolve it.’ He wrote the Constitution doesn’t forbid voters from ending the practice, which was instituted by officials at the University of Michigan and other state agencies.”
National Journal: “For years, mentions of Earth Day have sprung up each April from members of both parties. In April 2010, Democrats spoke of Earth Day over 150 times, mostly in commemoration of its 40th anniversary. But no Republican has uttered the words “Earth Day” on the House or Senate floor since 2010.”
The Atlantic notes “a vital reality about the state of the Republican Party as its members prepare to select a standard-bearer for the 2016 presidential primary: The GOP has long ago shed its stereotype of being the party catering to the wealthy.”
“These days, the GOP tone and agenda are set by a voting bloc of mostly white, blue-collar workers whose sensibilities skew more toward NASCAR than golf. In a general election, the party’s most reliable supporters are white voters without college degrees. And they increasingly control the contest for the White House nod: In 2008, according to a tabulation of exit-poll data acquired by the National Journal, blue-collar workers made up 51 percent of all GOP primary voters.”
The Upshot: “Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51% chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.”
“The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54%. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.”
The model behind these projections is called LEO.
Lynn Vavreck: “If you want to understand the 2014 midterm elections, remember this simple fact about American politics: There just aren’t that many swing voters.”
“Many people change their minds over the course of a campaign about whether to vote and even which candidate they’re leaning toward. Ultimately, though, voters tend to come home to their favored party. There are relatively few voters who cross back and forth between the parties during a campaign or even between elections.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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