Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report gives us a state-by-state rundown of key Senate races:
Pollster Neil Newhouse sees a growing GOP advantage in the 2014 midterm elections:
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Just published: The Centrist Manifesto by Charles Wheelan.
“Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.”
— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by Yahoo News.
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A new CNN/ORC International survey finds Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) the favorite among Republicans to win the 2016 presidential nomination.
Paul leads with 16%, followed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) at 15%, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) at 11%, Mike Huckabee at 10%, Jeb Bush (R) at 9% and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) each at 8%.
The Week: “Hillary Clinton is expected to have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. If Paul does indeed win the GOP nod, what would a Paul vs. Clinton race look like?”
Just published: The Unpersuadables: Adventures with the Enemies of Science by Will Storr.
The Daily Beast: “Intelligent creationists, scientifically-minded climate-change doubters, and Holocaust deniers–why don’t all smart people believe in facts?”
“Democrats are becoming increasingly alarmed about their midterm election fortunes amid President Obama’s sinking approval ratings, a loss in a special House election in Florida last week, and millions of dollars spent by Republican-aligned groups attacking the new health law,” the New York Times reports.
“The combination has led to uncharacteristic criticism of Mr. Obama and bitter complaints that his vaunted political organization has done little to help the party’s vulnerable congressional candidates.”
David Plouffe told Bloomberg, “This is a screaming siren that the same problems that afflicted us” in 2010 when Democrats lost control of the House “could face us again.”
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) “is calling on newly announced Republican challenger Scott Brown to sign the same pact in New Hampshire that helped prevent outside groups from pouring millions of dollars into his last Massachusetts Senate election,” the AP reports.
“In one of the thousands of Clinton administration papers released Friday came a hint of what is to come if Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2016,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
Wrote Paul Begala in 1996: “it’s imperative that the president defend the honor of the first lady tonight, with the whole country watching. The Republicans are attacking her without compunction, in part because they know the Democrats are too … to retaliate.”
“The memo does not mention why she was being attacked — but the fact that there were so many options explains why even many Democrats are wary of a Clinton restoration.”
Dana Millbank: “An army of 15 million voters under 30 swept Obama past Hillary Clinton and John McCain and to the presidency in 2008. More than 12 million helped him return in 2012. But now his presidency is on the line — and the Obama youth are abandoning him in his hour of need.”
“The administration announced last week that only 1.08 million people ages 18 to 34 had signed up for Obamacare by the end of February, or about 25 percent of total enrollees. If the proportion doesn’t improve significantly, the result likely will be fatal for the Affordable Care Act.”
Two prosecutors in Utah say a corruption investigation looking at state politicians and online gambling interests has yielded evidence that could implicate Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), ABC News reports.
“The two district attorneys – one Democrat and one Republican – already working with a team of FBI agents, are urging federal prosecutors to pick up the case and investigate – something the Department of Justice has thus far declined to do. The Utah officials say the evidence relates to suspect campaign contributions and other financial transactions.”
A new Insider Advantage poll in Georgia finds Jason Carter (D) edging Gov. Nathan Deal (R) in the race for governor, 41% to 38%.
A new Strive Strategies poll in Illinois finds Gov. Pat Quinn (D) leading primary challenger Tio Hardiman (D) by a large margin, 64% to 36%.
Political Fix: “In a news release, the polling firm calls that a ‘solid lead’ and presents it as good news for Quinn. It isn’t. Hardiman has no political base, no money, and has received no serious media coverage. It’s unlikely that one-third of Democratic Illinois voters even know who he is, let alone are supporting him.”
“You can call yourself Republicans. That’s fine, because that’s your voter registration. Don’t call yourself Reagan Republicans. Ronald Reagan would never, would never let this kind of aggression go unresponded to by the American people.”
— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by the Washington Post, blasting GOP senators for blocking a Ukrainian aid package.
Los Angeles Times: “Seen as Democrats’ best hope to pick up a Senate seat in the midterm election, the daughter of former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn is counting on her Republican opponents to alienate voters with their far-right platforms, as has occurred elsewhere in recent races.”
“But her campaign also hinges on whether she can take advantage of the Peach State’s rapidly changing demographics. Once a Democratic stronghold, Georgia turned red over the last 20 years as white voters embraced Republican candidates. Fewer than 1 in 4 white Georgians voted for President Obama in 2008.”
Charlie Cook: “It’s surprising how many people who avidly follow American politics don’t seem to appreciate that elections are both seasonal and cyclical in nature.”
“The seasonal aspect is the more obvious one. Clearly in some years, or seasons, the wind is blowing in favor of one party. In other years, it appears to blow in the opposite direction. In others still, as during the time between seasons, the partisan winds do not seem to blow in any direction at all.”
“Unfortunately, the cyclical nature is lost on more people. In any given even-numbered year, the House is on a cycle of its own, the Senate another, and the governorships yet another. The easiest to identify is the House cycle; with its two-year terms, all you have to do is look at the previous election. If Democrats had a great year and picked up a large number of Republican seats, you know that Democrats are likely to be overexposed and to suffer losses in the coming election cycle. If Republicans had a banner year in the previous election, they are more likely to lose than to gain seats. It’s all pretty straightforward.”
South Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Dave Feliciano (R) said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is “ambiguously gay” at a candidate forum, according to The State.
Said Feliciano: “It’s about time that South Carolina says hey, We’re tired of the ambiguously gay senator from South Carolina. We’re ready for a new leader to merge the Republican Party. We’re done with this. This is what it’s about, all of us coming together and saying, one way or the other, one of us is going to be on that ballot in November.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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