Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) and Natalie Tennant (D) captured primary wins on Tuesday, “setting the stage for a historic U.S. Senate showdown in November that will give West Virginia its first female senator,” the AP reports.

“Capito, a seven-term congresswoman and daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore, and Tennant, the state’s secretary of state, each cruised to victory and will square off to replace Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller, who is retiring after 30 years.”

Washington Post: “There was a time when House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) sympathized with the tea party’s frustration with Washington. Now, he’s engaged in open warfare with the GOP’s insurgent wing.”

“This week, Cantor’s opponent in the June 10 primary — a tea party activist named David Brat — is gaining national attention as a potential threat to Cantor’s hold on his solidly Republican, suburban Richmond district… The intraparty drama is the latest reflection of the deepening chasm in the Republican Party across Virginia and the nation. And it is all the more remarkable because it is happening to a man widely seen as the likely next speaker of the House.”

Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-MI) failed to qualify for the Michigan 13th District primary ballot, Roll Call reports.

“Conyers’ re-election had been a foregone conclusion — as it has been for decades — until recent weeks, when the 25-term incumbent’s position on the ballot became imperiled. Two individuals collecting signatures for Conyers’ ballot-qualifying petition were found to not be registered voters and thereby the signatures were ruled invalid. As a result, Conyers did not meet the 1,000-signature threshold to appear on the Aug. 5 primary ballot.”

The Iowa presidential caucuses will be the topic of an online course that Iowa State University is offering, the Des Moines Register reports.

“The class will be offered in September 2015. Class registration begins in summer 2015. The next caucuses, which kick off the presidential nomination process, are scheduled for February 2016. Anyone can enroll for free and access the course online.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska finds Sen. Mark Begich (D) leads Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 37%, and tops Mead Treadwell (R), 41% to 33%.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) has closed the gap with Charlie Crist (D) in a new statewide survey from a business interest showing the two candidates are virtually tied, 43% to 44%, the Miami Herald reports.

“Having run the campaign that beat her last time, and we barely beat her, she’s in a much stronger position than she was then.”

— David Plouffe, quoted by The Hill, suggesting Hillary Clinton will be an even more formidable presidential candidate than she was in 2008.

Ed Jany (D), the Marine and former cop, national and state Democratic leaders hailed as an ideal candidate to take on newly elected U.S. Rep. David Jolly (R) is dropping out of the race, the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“The sudden and surprise announcement comes days after a Tampa Bay Times report about him seemingly padding his educational background and resume.”

Bloomberg: “It has been an absolute comedy of errors for Democrats in Florida’s 13th congressional district, which as of mid-May stands atop an unthreatened throne as the most bizarre House election this year.”

Nathan Gonzales: “Since Democrats don’t have a candidate, I think we’re pretty secure in changing our Rothenberg Political Report rating of the race from Lean Republican to Safe Republican.”

Republicans in Charleston County, South Carolina fought among themselves Monday night before deciding to issue a “censure” of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) for not being Republican enough,” the Charleston Post & Courier reports.

“The censure document, running to about 30 points taken from Graham’s two terms in the Senate, covered a variety of Graham criticisms, ranging from supporting President Obama’s Supreme Court nominees to cooperating with Democrats. Similar censure votes have been considered in other counties around the state, pressed by Graham opponents.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads challenger Thom Tillis (R) by two points, 38% to 36%, with Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh pulling 11%.

Key finding: “Haugh’s presence in the race has the potential to be a headache for Tillis moving forward if the contest remains this competitive — people planning to vote for him right now say they would support Tillis over Hagan 47% to 27% if they had to choose between the major party candidates. When you reallocate those folks the race is tied at 41% — usually a 2 point difference like that doesn’t matter but given the closeness of this one it could.”

Jonathan Chait: “Florida encapsulates the demographic trap encircling the Republican Party. They have deeply alienated Latino voters there, and the first step in the party’s elites’ grand strategy to gain a hearing with them — taking immigration policy off the table — is nearly dead. Republicans right now would need a major electoral wave to win Florida, and without Florida, they have almost no viable path to prevail in a close election.”

“And, of course, they could always catch that wave with a well-timed recession or some other major political boon. Failing that wave, they are staring down a presidential electorate where the odds look increasingly dire.”

“You seem to be convinced that Mrs. Clinton’s running. I like to say I’m the only person… the only last person in Washington who’d be willing to take some bet that she might not run.”

— Former Clinton White House press secretary Mike McCurry, in an interview with Real Clear Politics.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Hawaii finds Sen. Brian Schatz (D) with a commanding 15-point lead over his primary rival Colleen Hanabusa (D), 49% to 34%.

GOP pollster Glen Bolger: “Well, there are twelve states listed as 2014 lean or toss-up Senate races by Charlie Cook and his crack team at the Cook Political Report. In 2012, Mitt Romney averaged 53.3% of the vote in those twelve states while Barack Obama averaged just 44.8%. Eight of the twelve were won by Romney in a not particularly stellar year. I am using averages here because each Senate state is of equal value. Larger states do not count for more.”

“While Republicans should not be measuring their drapes for the Senate majority offices just yet, key data in those lean/toss-up Senate seats from the early 2014 merge of the NBC/WSJ polling done by my business partner Bill McInturff and his Democratic counterpart Fred Yang at Hart Research serves as a measuring tape for a forecast of a Republican takeover.”

Karl Rove “stunned a conference when he suggested Hillary Clinton might have brain damage,” the New York Post reports.

“He said if Clinton runs for president, voters must be told what happened when she suffered a fall in December 2012.”

Said Rove: “Thirty days in the hospital? And when she reappears, she’s wearing glasses that are only for people who have traumatic brain injury? We need to know what’s up with that.”