A new Sienna College poll in New York’s 11th congressional district finds Rep. Michael Grimm (R), despite being under federal indictment, is locked in a tight battle against challenger Domenic Recchia (D), 44% to 40%.

“If Democrats cling to their Senate majority this fall, it will be in large part because of a well-funded group connected to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) that has helped build a formidable firewall around vulnerable incumbents,” the Washington Post reports.

“Senate Majority PAC, fueled by billionaires and labor unions, has been the biggest-spending super PAC of the 2014 midterm contests. Together with an allied tax-exempt group, Patriot Majority, the pro-Democratic effort has poured at least $36 million into ads and voter outreach… The groups’ early, aggressive presence in pivotal Senate races spotlights how, four years after being dramatically outgunned in the outside money game, Democrats are now some of its most adept players.”

Daily Beast: “The list of pundits, political analysts, and numbers-crunchers who are predicting Republicans will win control of the Senate in November is long, including Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight. The folks at The New York Times’ The Upshot are saying it could be a tie. But Sam Wang of Princeton stands almost alone in forecasting that the Democrats will just barely hold their Senate majority.”

Wang’s latest forecast finds Democrats have a 78% chance of holding control of the Senate.

Patricia Murphy: “One of the most persistent myths in politics — that women shy away from campaigns because they don’t ‘have the stomach’ for fundraising –is taking a beating this election cycle as women have emerged as top money makers, both for their own campaigns and on behalf of other candidates and national campaign committees.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 40%.

Based on oral arguments, Rick Hasen thinks it is likely the Kansas Supreme Court will quickly issue an order removing Chad Taylor’s (D) name from the ballot. The decision would be a big blow to Sen. Pat Roberts (R) who is fighting a challenge from Greg Orman (I).

A new poll shows Taylor still receiving 6% of the vote in the Kansas U.S. Senate race even though he’s no longer campaigning and wants off the ballot.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida finds Gov. Rick Scott (R) with a 5 point lead over challenger Charlie Crist (D), 44% to 39%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie at 7% and 9% still undecided.

“Pat Quinn is not the folksy, bumbling fool he’d like us to think he is. He knows what he’s doing. He knows what he’s done.”

— Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner (R), quoted by the Chicago Sun Times.

First Read: “Looking at the president’s schedule this week, you’d be hard pressed to know that a major national election is just seven weeks away. It’s painfully obvious that the White House has concluded that the best political assistance they can provide Democrats is for the president to go be president. And so this week, he’s clearly embracing the commander-in-chief title, even when it comes to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.”

“So with exactly seven weeks until the midterm elections and with the president’s approval ratings stuck in the low 40s (mid- to high 30s in many of the battlegrounds), Obama brandishing his commander-in-chief credentials also might be the best way for the White House to assist Democrats this fall.”

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) told TPM that he’s considering a White House bid.

Said Jindal: “It is true. There’s no reason to be coy. I am thinking, I am praying about whether I’ll run in 2016. I said I won’t make that decision until after November.”

A new Harstad Strategic Research poll in Alaska finds Sen. Mark Begich (D) leading challenger Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race by five points, 45% to 40%.

A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads challenger Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate among likely voters, 50% to 45%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kansas finds Greg Orman (I) leading Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in the Senate race, 41% to 34%, with another 6% still choosing Chad Taylor (D) even though he’s ended his campaign.

Charlie Cook: “Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night: money and the Democratic ground game. Perhaps the biggest untold story of this election is how so many Republican and conservative donors, at least those whose last name isn’t Koch, have kept their checkbooks relatively closed… Many Republican and conservative donors appear to be somewhat demoralized after 2012. They feel that they were misled about the GOP’s chances in both the presidential and senatorial races that year, and/or their money was not well spent. In short, they are giving less if at all, and it has put Republican candidates in a bind in a number of places.”

“Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together. Clearly the Obama campaign and Democratic allies had a superior voter-identification and get-out-the-vote operation two years ago… In midterm elections, if Democrats can crank up the turnout among young, female, and minority voters, then their chances of success this year increase.”

Nate Silver says his Senate forecast “is pretty darned close.”

“As you can see, there hasn’t been an across-the-board shift. Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.”

Election Lab now shows Democrats with a 51% chance of retaining the Senate.