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Bush Unofficially Kicks Off Campaign

December 15, 2014 at 5:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

Jeb Bush’s decision “to release a policy-laden e-book and all his e-mails from his time as governor of Florida has further stoked expectations among his allies that he will launch a presidential bid,” the Washington Post reports.

“Bush announced the moves in an expansive interview that aired Sunday on a Miami television station. He mused about the kind of campaign he would run and addressed his views on immigration and education reform that rile parts of the GOP base. At several points in the ­interview, Bush sounded like a candidate-in-waiting.”

Why Clinton Might Not Want to Wait

December 15, 2014 at 5:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Hillary Clinton, “after much debate within her inner circle, appears to have put off formally entering the 2016 presidential race until spring 2015,” the Washington Post reports.

“Although there are plenty of reasons that favor waiting — legal ones in terms of how she incorporates (or doesn’t) the various outside groups that have blossomed in support of her in the past few years, and political ones about looking less, well, political, for as long as possible — there’s also a big reason she should at least consider announcing sooner rather than later. And that reason is Elizabeth Warren.”

Is Pataki Really Considering a White House Bid?

December 15, 2014 at 5:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

Ex-New york Gov. George Pataki (R) “meets Monday with the state’s GOP county chairmen — and one source expects he’ll ask them to not endorse a presidential candidate for 2016 so he can receive ‘favorite son‘ status,” the New York Daily News reports.

“The Republican source says one of Pataki’s inner circle had revealed the intention.”

Quote of the Day

December 15, 2014 at 5:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

“I’d do it again in a minute.”

— Former Vice President Dick Cheney, quoted by Politico, on the CIA’s interrogation program.

Democratic Divide Mirrors GOP Split

December 15, 2014 at 5:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“In the six weeks since their repudiation in the midterms, Democrats have seen the opening of fissures within their once-disciplined ranks, marking the start of an internal struggle between now and the 2016 election over the ideological identity and tactical direction of the party,” the Washington Post reports.

“The tension — shown in high relief during the messy final days of the congressional session — is in some ways a mirror image of the stresses within the Republican Party, which has been divided between its tea party and establishment factions in recent years. In the case of both parties, the argument pits the more populist, purist elements of the base against the more pragmatic center.”

Greg Sargent: How divided are the Democrats?

What Does Elizabeth Warren Want?

December 15, 2014 at 5:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

The Hill: “Groups on the left are trying to draft the Massachusetts liberal into the presidential race, viewing her as the perfect populist counterweight to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Warren has steadfastly refused those overtures, and allies take her at her word that she isn’t planning to run.”

“Meanwhile, her influence in the Senate is on the rise, partly due to a new position in Democratic leadership that makes her a liaison to groups on the left who have grown frustrated with the party’s direction. Warren has signaled she won’t be a shrinking violet in the post, last week defying Senate leaders and the White House to lead a revolt against government funding legislation that included a provision that rolled back part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law.”

Clinton’s Message Sounds Familiar

December 15, 2014 at 5:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “Mrs. Clinton is giving hints of the themes and agenda that would animate her campaign if she were to run for president, offering the barest sketch of what could evolve into her basic stump speech. Yet, the ideas are, in a sense, frozen in time. Mrs. Clinton has offered the same thoughts—in virtually identical language—at earlier stages of her political career.”

Immigration Moves are a Winner for Democrats

December 14, 2014 at 8:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard 64 Comments

Nate Cohn: “A month after President Obama’s decision to defer deportation and offer work authorization to millions of undocumented immigrants, his action not only looks like a winner, but it also seems to be a fairly promising sign for Democrats after the disastrous midterm elections last month.”

“This is not because Mr. Obama’s immigration decision has proved to be popular. In fact, it is, over all, unpopular. Polls show that a majority of adults oppose his plan.”

“But as is the case on many issues, the politics of immigration reform are not simply about the issue’s popularity in national public opinion polls. They are also about intensity and coalitions: Who are the voters that really care about the issue, and how much do they matter? On immigration, the answer is fairly clear. Hispanic voters care a lot, and matter a lot.”

GOP Hopefuls Hone Attacks on Clinton

December 14, 2014 at 7:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

New York Times: “At political fund-raisers and party conferences, over intimate dinners and in casual telephone calls, top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination are constructing an image of Mrs. Clinton that is relentlessly unappealing: as rusty and unloved, out of step and out of date, damaged and vulnerable.”

“To win the party’s nomination in a contest over which Mrs. Clinton looms so large, likely candidates are now jockeying to appeal to several overlapping constituencies, including Republican activists who loathe her, donors who respect and fear her fund-raising prowess and party leaders who view her candidacy as a test of their attempts to modernize the Republican brand.”

Bush Will Release Emails

December 14, 2014 at 7:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Jeb Bush said he’s going to release about 250,000 emails from his time in office, Politico reports.

“The move seems designed to get ahead of opposition researchers poring through his time in office — the Democratic research super PAC American Bridge already has started digging in on the candidates — but also to contrast with people like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, both of whom have been accused of creating a fog of secrecy in their government offices.”

“Unlike Christie and Clinton, Bush’s document trove is fairly dated — he was in office from 1999 to 2007. But the idea…is to create ‘transparency.’ Bush was known as an active emailer while in office, often responding to queries himself.”

Spending Bill Passes

December 14, 2014 at 6:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

“The Senate voted on Saturday night to approve a $1.1 trillion deal and avert a government shutdown, sending the legislation to President Barack Obama for his signature after an unusual weekend session and days of drama in the House,” Politico reports.

“Senate conservatives had tried to make a point about Obama’s immigration policy this weekend, but the result was Senate Democrats getting everything they wanted out of their last days of power. In the end the Senate passed the $1.1 trillion spending bill, 56-40, but not before Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was able to begin moving forward on 24 of the president’s nominations.”

Government Shutdown Avoided

December 13, 2014 at 8:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

“The Senate has avoided a government shutdown with hours to spare and has agreed to vote tonight on the ‘cromnibus’ funding the government through September,” Roll Call reports.

“The government was scheduled to shut down at midnight Saturday, but the Senate cleared a four-day stopgap measure by voice vote after lawmakers in both parties sparred over who was to blame for the impending shutdown theatrics. And later Saturday, the Senate agreed to hold both procedural votes and final passage tonight on the cromnibus.”

Hours Away from Another Government Shutdown

December 13, 2014 at 1:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“The nation is on the brink of another government shutdown, as the Senate begins a long series of nominations-related votes Saturday that are expected to last until past midnight,” Roll Call reports.

“The government will shut down at midnight Saturday unless the Senate passes a short-term continuing resolution — passed in a nearly empty House chamber Friday — that keeps government programs funded through Wednesday. Under Senate rules, it will require unanimous consent to keep the government open.”

“A vote to cut off debate on a $1.1 trillion spending package, known as the ‘cromnibus,’ is scheduled for 1:00 a.m. Final passage is scheduled for early Monday morning.”

Reid Calls Weekend Votes After GOP Rebellion

December 13, 2014 at 10:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

“Conservatives late Friday stalled action on the Senate floor as leaders scrambled to wrap up the 113th Congress,” Roll Call reports.

“Senators will reconvene at noon Saturday for a series of up to 40 roll call votes after conservatives sought to force votes to block President Barack Obama’s executive actions on immigration before consenting to a final vote on the ‘cromnibus’ to fund the government. The collapse of a potential deal to set the votes on the spending bill for Monday came amid a longstanding feud about nominations, which will now take center stage on Saturday.”

The Hill: Ted Cruz at center of Senate meltdown

GOP Angst Over 2016 Convention Led to Raising Limits

December 13, 2014 at 9:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

New York Times: “The secret negotiations that led to one of the most significant expansions of campaign contributions in recent years began with what Republican leaders regarded as an urgent problem: How would they pay for their presidential nominating convention in Cleveland in two years?”

“After successfully pushing legislation this year to abolish public financing for party conventions, some Republicans had become worried about how they would pay for their 2016 convention, scheduled to be held in Cleveland, in Mr. Boehner’s home state, Ohio. Some feared that the party would have to scale back the convention, losing clout and prestige to the big-money outside groups that are playing bigger roles in campaigns.”

10 Years in Prison Recommended for McDonnell

December 13, 2014 at 9:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“The federal agency that will play a pivotal role in guiding the sentence of former Virginia governor Robert F. McDonnell has recommended that the onetime Republican rising star spend at least 10 years and a month in prison,” the Washington Post reports.

Warren Gains Clout in Battle Against Wall Street

December 13, 2014 at 9:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

“Before she became a senator, Elizabeth Warren came to Capitol Hill and promised ‘plenty of blood and teeth left on the floor’ if she did not get meaningful reforms of Wall Street. This week, she showed what she meant,” the Boston Globe reports.

“The Massachusetts Democrat brought Congress to the brink of yet another government shutdown in her effort to kill a provision that she said would have once again put taxpayers at risk of bailing out big banks. The provision was inserted by Republicans in a huge spending bill. She appears to have lost the policy fight, but won a political battle.”

Spending Bill Highlights Tensions of Next Two Years

December 13, 2014 at 9:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

“The wrangling between the White House and Congress over a $1.1 trillion spending bill is the first test of how political forces unleashed by the midterm elections and impending 2016 campaigns will influence governing here,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The fight foreshadows two years of legislative battles defined by tensions not just between the two parties—as has been the case since the Republican takeover of the House in 2010—but within them… The open question is whether the newly energized ideological wings of each party will become an impediment to legislation—or whether they will be bypassed by lawmakers more open to compromise. That appeared to have happened Thursday, when 57 House Democrats joined 162 Republicans to form a fragile coalition to pass the spending bill.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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