This is the first in a guest series from Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.

In the coming weeks and months, the Republican primary campaign will shift from debating and handshaking to the far more expensive – and often uglier – realm of paid media.

While we haven’t yet seen many candidates go up on the airwaves, we are seeing an uptick in the number of web ads – commercials designed not for a television audience, but for online viewers.

Web ads are a great way to tinker with the candidate’s message while earning free (or very inexpensive) coverage. Think of them as spring training for media consultants.

Last week, Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a powerful ad that almost surely previews his traditional television advertising campaign to come. Politics aside, the ad is not only a master stroke by his campaign team, but required viewing for anyone interested in the art of candidate marketing.

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The FBI alleges a Florida man “attempted an extortion plot that threatened to smear acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in West Virginia’s upcoming special election for governor,” the AP reports.

The threat involved a video allegedly showing inhumane practices at an Oklahoma greyhound kennel. In the emails, the man says the campaign of Bill Maloney (R), wanted the video. Maloney has attacked Tomblin over his mother’s greyhound breeding business.

The special election is on Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee “has been approached by Republican and conservative activists unhappy with the current crop of presidential hopefuls and he is considering entering the fray,” Reuters reports.

Update: A source close to Huckabee tells CBS News that “there are
certainly people that have asked him to reconsider his decision, even
more so lately, but at this point that is not something he is doing.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds President Obama barely leading Mitt Romney in a general election match up, 47% to 45%.

Key findings: “Obama’s poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity. Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49. That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March.”

However, Obama leads the rest of the Republican field by double digits.

“I believe that marriage is between a man and woman. It has been for all of recorded history and I think this is a temporary aberration that will dissipate.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by the Des Moines Register, on gay marriage.

Sarah Palin told Fox News she would be making any decisions on a presidential run by her own self-imposed deadline by the end of September.

Said Palin: “I hold my political cards close to my chest. I’ve certainly learned lessons along those lines, and I’m going to continue to do that until I’m ready to make an announcement. This is a serious decision, and I’m engaged in serious deliberations and within the next 24 hours, don’t look for me to make a decision.”

Just in case, Red State is giving hourly updates.

The Florida Republican presidential primary will now be on January 31, instead of March 6, the St. Petersburg Times reports.

The action will almost certainly set off a chain reaction as Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada move their contests to the front of the line.

“The scale of change I am suggesting is so enormous that I couldn’t possibly show you as a single leader all I am going to do. This is a beginning of a conversation.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by the Des Moines Register, unveiling his latest “Contract with America.”

Helped once again by his money bomb strategy, Rep. Ron Paul’s (R-TX) presidential campaign raised at least $5 million during the past three months, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The third quarter total is up from $4.5 million in the second quarter.

The New York Times reports President Obama’s re-election campaign “is charting an alternative course to re-election should he be unable to win Ohio and other industrial states traditionally essential to Democratic presidential victories.”

“Without conceding ground anywhere, Mr. Obama is fighting hard for Southern and Rocky Mountain states he won in 2008, and some he did not, in calculating how to assemble the necessary 270 electoral votes. He is seeking to prove that those victories on formerly Republican turf were not flukes but the start of a trend that will make Democrats competitive there for years.”

Said strategist David Axelrod: “There are a lot of ways for us to get to 270, and it’s not just the traditional map. That’s why we’re laying the groundwork across the country to compete on the widest possible playing field next year.”

The Daily Beast compiles the top eight highlights from Herman Cain’s forthcoming book, This is Herman Cain!, in case you weren’t going to read it.

The conventional wisdom, expressed again Politico and others, is that it may be too late for Chris Christie — or anyone else — to jump into the presidential race.

“With the initial primary and caucus states poised to move up their contests to January, an October announcement means that Christie would immediately confront two questions of some urgency: where would he compete and how would he get on the ballot in an array of states coming in rapid succession.”

But Walter Shapiro doesn’t buy it: “Jump-starting a campaign was certainly not a panacea for Tim Pawlenty, who might actually be an intriguing figure in the GOP race if he had entered it about now… In a 21st century media age — when images can be forged in minutes — it may matter less when you get in the presidential race than what you do when you get there.”

With the 3rd quarter ending today, we’ll begin to see fundraising reports from the presidential candidates.

First Read: “It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Texas governor, but a strong fundraising showing — say in the neighborhood of $15 million since announcing his bid in mid-August — would give him a much-needed boost and would solidify his chances of competing financially with Mitt Romney (who raised $18 million last quarter). More than that amount would signal some SERIOUS fundraising chops for Perry, while less than that would be considered trouble for him… Right now, Perry World is simply promising more than $10 million.”

“Besides Perry, the other big players are expected to post fundraising numbers less than what they raised in the 2nd quarter.”

The Fix: “If Romney’s number is indeed between $11 million and $13 million, then Rick Perry’s team has its target. The name of the game is beating Romney, period. Perry’s team has beat back a report that suggested it pulled in $20 million in the opening days of the campaign, noting that much of that was pledges.”

Michael Kinsley: “Look, I’m sorry, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie cannot be president: He is just too fat. Maybe, if he runs for president and we get to know him, we will overlook this awkward issue because we are so impressed with the way he stands up to teachers’ unions. But we shouldn’t overlook it — unless he goes on a diet and shows he can stick to it.”

Eugene Robinson: “Christie’s problem with weight ceased being a private matter when he stepped into the public arena — and it’s not something you can fail to notice. Obesity is a national epidemic whose costs are measured not just in dollars and cents but also in lives. Christie’s weight is as legitimate an issue as the smoking habit that President Obama says he has finally kicked.”

Of course, Jon Corzine tried to bring up Christie’s weight in a tough campaign ad and that didn’t work out so well.