Mike Murphy: “At this moment of inflection, two people hold the keys to the GOP primaries. First, Sarah Palin: if she enters, Perry will have far more trouble on his right and Romney will become much more likely to enter Iowa to win… The second is Perry’s debate coach. If the governor of Texas cannot dramatically improve his performance in his next showdown with his GOP rivals, he may not even make it to Iowa.”
Why Romney Hasn’t Caught On
The New York Times and Washington Post both take a look at Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and wonder why he hasn’t been able to excite Republican
primary voters.
First Read: “Yet here’s one reason both articles don’t really mention:
his past positions on issues… Only six years ago, he
supported abortion rights; in 1994, he sent a letter saying he’d be a
stronger advocate for gay rights than Ted Kennedy; according to a 2006
article, he supported a path to citizenship for law-abiding illegal
immigrants; he has said that his Massachusetts health-care law should be
a model for other states; and he said back in June that humans have
contributed to the world getting warmer — and that it’s important to
reduce emissions to combat that. All of those positions are anathema to
conservatives. A question: Does this Republican electorate want to ‘settle,’ gravitate behind the most electable? When they’ve ‘settled in
the past, many conservative leaders have regretted it (see McCain or
Dole or Bush 41).”
Democrats Face Enthusiam Gap in 2012
A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic.
In contrast, 58% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican describe themselves as more enthusiastic about voting.
The California Collapse
Michael Lewis interviews former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) on the “nightmare scenario” that has become the state’s economy.
“In November 2005 he called a special election that sought votes on four reforms: limiting state spending, putting an end to the gerrymandering of legislative districts, limiting public-employee-union spending on elections, and lengthening the time it took for public-school teachers to get tenure. All four propositions addressed, directly or indirectly, the state’s large and growing financial mess. All four were defeated; the votes weren’t even close. From then until the end of his time in office he was effectively gelded: the legislators now knew that the people who had elected them to behave exactly the way they were already behaving were not going to undermine them when appealed to directly.”
Gingrich to Release New Contract
The Des Moines Register got an early copy of Newt Gingrich’s “21st Century Contract with America” which will call for Americans “to have new choices in how they buy health insurance, pay their income taxes and save for retirement.”
“Gingrich’s new contract calls for dozens of other ideas he has called breathtaking in scale and visionary. He vows to veto any tax increase. He wants speedier release of breakthrough drugs for brain diseases. He wants development of government land in Alaska and Nevada to bring in revenue.”
The plan will be formally unveiled later today.
Quote of the Day
“We’ll act accordingly.”
— New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, quoted by the New Hampshire Union Leader, noting that Florida moving up its primary would not impact New Hampshire being the first presidential primary state.
Huntsman Will Be Allowed to Debate
There’s good news for Jon Huntsman in the latest Fox News poll: He’s got 4% support nationally, which more than the minimum threshold to qualify for the next Republican presidential debate on October 18.
Giuliani Still Flirting with Presidential Bid
Rudy Giuliani “dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid,” the AP reports.
“Giuliani has visited the first-in-the-nation primary state four times already this year and advisers have maintained regular contact with potential staffers in the event he decides to seek the presidency. During his last trip in July, Giuliani said he wasn’t convinced any of the candidates were strong enough to defeat President Barack Obama. Until he is, he said he wouldn’t rule out a run of his own.”
Lawmaker Asked Police to Ignore Husband’s Call
After locking her husband out of their home, Illinois state Sen. Suzi Schmidt (R) “called 911, identified herself as an elected official, asked police to ‘ignore’ her husband if he called and said he feared her because she had ‘connections,’ according to newly released police reports and recordings of the call,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“Amid a host of allegations — that the Republican senator rammed her car into her husband’s during a subsequent row in August and then, just this week, bit him and struck him with a cellphone — the recordings raise the question of whether Schmidt was seeking to use her political clout to influence Lake County authorities.”
Hispanic Vote May Swing Key States
“The surging Hispanic population in several states that figure to be crucial to the outcome of next year’s election” — particularly Florida, Nevada and New Mexico — “is prompting an early scramble by both parties to influence Hispanic voters,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The trend is particularly important to President Obama, who has seen his support among white voters sag, putting his hold on several swing states in danger. He is ramping up an urgent effort to win support from Latinos, while Republicans are trying to build on doubts among them about his stewardship of the economy.”
Romney Retakes National Lead
A new Fox News poll shows Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%.
Since last month, Romney is up one point, Perry is down 10 points and Cain is up 6 points.
The remaining field: Newt Gingrich is at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.
Why Not Romney?
David Frum: “Attention, Chris Christie fans. If you are looking for a Republican
nominee who could actually do the job of president, who does not repel
independent voters, who can survive a 90-minute debate without saying
anything foolish, why the hell not Mitt Romney?”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Why am I in it? It’s not the next step of my career, by the way. I don’t have a
political career.”
— Mitt Romney, in an appearance on Morning Joe, which leads Jonathan Chait to note it’s not for a lack of trying.
The Election of 1944
Just published: FDR, Dewey, and the Election of 1944 by David M. Jordan.
“A fast-moving, blow-by-blow account of the often neglected wartime
campaign that pitted Franklin Delano Roosevelt against
Republican Thomas E. Dewey, with pollsters divided to
the very end. For political junkies there is suspense,
backroom dealing, and surprises about both presidential and
vice-presidential nominations, as well as where the
parties would stand on the future both at home and
abroad.”
Shays Would Make Connecticut Race Competitive
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leading Chris Shays (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 39%, and beating Linda McMahon (R), 50% to 43%.
However, Shays would beat Susan Bysiewicz (D) if she was the Democratic nominee, 48% to 37%.
Though primary numbers were not released, they show McMahon “has a large lead” in the GOP primary contest with Shays.
Republicans Face Halloween Deadline
Attention Chris Christie and Sarah Palin: The deadline to get on the Florida Republican party ballot is October 31, CNN reports.
The next filing deadlines: South Carolina on November 1, Michigan on November 15 and Missouri on November 22.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire’s filing period ends November 18, but Secretary of State William
Gardner has the authority to change the filing period to accommodate a possible earlier primary date.
Quote of the Day
“Not sure if he saw the movie?”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico, on David Axelrod’s comment that Obama’s re-election was going to be a “titanic struggle.”
Romney Grabs Lead in Florida
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Mitt Romney leading Rick Perry in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 10%. All other candidates are in the single digits.
Key finding: “We started this poll on Thursday night before the debate and in those interviews the race was neck and neck with Romney at 33% and Perry at 31%. But in interviews done Friday-Sunday Romney’s lead expanded to double digits at 29-19. More telling might be what happened to Perry’s favorability numbers after the debate — on Thursday night he was at 63/23 with Florida Republicans. Friday-Sunday he was at 48/36. Perry’s poor performance may or may not prove to be a game changer nationally but it definitely appears to have hurt his image in the key state where it occurred.”
