Nate Silver: “At the betting market Intrade, Mr. Santorum is now given just a 1.5 percent chance of winning the nomination — lower than the combined total for a series of dark-horse figures like Jeb Bush, Sarah Palin and Chris Christie, who together have about a 3 percent chance. The race will continue on until Mr. Romney clinches or everyone else quits, but the only real question is whether Mr. Romney could somehow beat himself.”
Why We Have So Many Negative Political Ads
Paul Begala: “The biggest reason negative ads are so ubiquitous in politics, but much less common in commercial advertising, is this: elections present a mutually exclusive choice. It is legal to buy a can of Coke and a can of Pepsi on the same day, but you can’t vote for Obama and Romney in the same election. That mutual exclusivity pushes campaigns to frame the choice more sharply. Imagine if we had Cola Day once every four years — and you were stuck with your choice for those four years. Coke would say Pepsi makes you fat; Pepsi would counterattack that Coke makes you impotent. And they’d go downhill from there.”
“So the next time a public moralist starts lamenting the role of negative advertising in our political system, just explain that it’s an outgrowth of the stakes involved. As the old saying has it, politics ain’t beanbag — and a political campaign isn’t selling soft drinks. The outcome matters — and influencing it is worth every negative word or image a candidate and his team can muster.”
Why Gingrich May Not Make it to the Convention
NBC News highlights a RNC rule stipulating that candidates seeking the nomination must have won a plurality of votes in at least five states to have their name presented for the GOP nomination.
Said RNC Chairman Reince Preibus: “It’s an important rule. So when these candidates are adding up their delegates or when people out there have a particular issue that they would like to move at the convention, they had better make sure they at least have a plurality of five states to make these things happen.”
Newt Gingrich has only won two primaries so far — South Carolina and Georgia.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again.”
— Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom, in a CNN interview, on whether Romney has moved “so far to the right it would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election.”
Jeb Bush Endorses Romney
The Palm Beach Post reports Jeb Bush has ended his neutrality in the 2012 presidential race and “now is the time for Republicans to unite behind Governor Romney and take our message of fiscal conservatism and job creation to all voters this fall. I am endorsing Mitt Romney for our Party’s nomination.”
McDonnell Approval Sinks in Virginia
A Quinnipiac poll finds Virginia Gov. Bob
McDonnell’s (R) approval rate at 53% to 32% — a drop of 13 points in his net approval rate since last month.
The change is almost entirely the result of a shift by women that occured during the state legislature’s debate over a new law that
requires women seeking an abortion to undergo an ultrasound examination.
Five Notes from the FEC Reports
First Read: “One, Obama’s fundraising and cash on hand is on par — more or less — with Bush’s numbers in ’04 (which is surprising given what many, including us, thought he was capable of raising at the beginning of this race)… Two, Romney’s burn rate is over 100% (which might explain why the Super PAC, and not the campaign, is airing ads in post-Illinois races)… Three, the pro-Santorum Super PAC has just $365,000 in the bank (Foster Friess, you have a call on Line 2)… Four, Gingrich now has more in debt ($1.55 million) than cash on hand ($1.54 million)… And five, the pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA continues to be a flop, with it raising just $2 million (half of which came from Bill Maher).”
“By the way, don’t overlook the spending numbers for the campaigns. It’s where you learn the philosophies of the campaign. Obama’s campaign is putting a LARGE emphasis (read: money) online. A large chunk of the February spending was devoted to online advertising. Also, do note that the Obama campaign continues to keep overall STAFF salaries down, at least compared to what other campaigns pay, including Romney. In fact, Romney has at least five staffers who make more than Obama’s campaign manager.”
Romney’s Weakness with Evangelical Voters
Dan Balz notes that Mitt Romney has won every state where evangelical Christians account for less than 50% of Republican primary voters while he’s lost every state where they’ve been more than 50%.
If recent history is any guide, enthusiasm among evangelical voters will be crucial to the Republican nominee in the general election.
Obama Will Not Mark Health Care Law Anniversary
President Obama will not recognize the two-year anniversary of his signing of the health care law — “which takes place days before the Supreme Court offers a decision on the constitutionality of his signature legislative achievement,” The Hill reports.
“Senior administration officials said on Tuesday that Obama will not be offering a vigorous public defense of the law, holding events or even making public remarks in the lead-up to the Supreme Court case. Obama will instead leave arguments to the Justice Department, which begins defending the law on Monday. Likewise, Obama is not expected to hold an event around the two-year anniversary on Friday, said officials who labeled it a faux milestone and off the radar of most Americans.”
140 Best Twitter Feeds
Thanks to Time magazine for naming @politicalwire as one of the best Twitter feeds!
Other notable political feeds include: Andy Borowitz (@BorowitzReport), Barack Obama (@BarackObama), Michelle
Obama (@MichelleObama), Mitt Romney (@MittRomney), Rick Santorum
(@RickSantorum), Newt Gingrich (@NewtGingrich), Alec Ross (@AlecJRoss),
Ezra Klein (@EzraKlein), Karen Tumulty (@Ktumulty), Dave Weigel
(@DaveWeigel) and Mark Knoller (@MarkKnoller).
Is Romney Wrapping Up the Nomination?
Mark Halperin: “Romney’s Illinois win could be the beginning of the end of the Republican nomination fight. In order to get there, he faces two challenges: He’ll have to convince on-the-sidelines Republicans to endorse his candidacy, contribute to his campaign, and muscle Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich out of the race. And he’ll also have to persuade the media to reflect the reality that Romney is the only candidate who can win… Santorum probably has one more chance to change the paradigm with a win in Wisconsin on April 3, after an expected victory in Louisiana on Saturday.”
Fred Barnes: “Mitt Romney is close to finishing off his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, talk of a brokered GOP convention in August, and the prospect of a new candidate suddenly entering the contest.”
First Read: “Despite what some are saying, however, the race isn’t over — at least
not yet: The GOP primary contest moves on to Louisiana, where Santorum
is favored. And then, on April 3, it heads to DC, Maryland, and
Wisconsin. If Romney pulls off the upset in Louisiana and/or sweeps the
April 3 contests (especially Wisconsin), then it will be fair to
conclude the race is over.”
Quote of the Day
“It’s a form of welfare. You know, you’re having the taxpayers pay to take care of
somebody and I’m an ordinary citizen and I would think I should pay for
my own protection and it costs, I think, more than $50,000 a day to
protect those individuals. It’s a lot of money.”
— Ron Paul, quoted by Politico, on why he doesn’t want Secret Service protection.
Still No Love for Romney
Mitt Romney crushed Rick Santorum in the Illinois primary, but William Kristol still isn’t impressed.
“Watching Mitt Romney’s victory speech in Illinois didn’t reassure me about his chances against President Obama. (Watch it yourself to see if I’m being unfair.) Romney’s remarks consisted basically of the claim that the business of America is business, that he’s a businessman who understands business, and that we need ‘economic freedom’ not for the sake of freedom but to allow business to fuel the economy. It’s true that Romney will have plenty of time to improve for the general election, if, as seems likely (but still not inevitable!), he wins the nomination. But if he sticks with this core message, we’d better hope Republicans and independents are really determined to get rid of Barack Obama.”
Romney Wins Big in Illinois
Illinois Republicans “delivered a decisive victory to Mitt Romney in the state’s presidential primary Tuesday, crushing Rick Santorum in what amounted to the first big-state head-to-head contest among the front-runners for the GOP nomination,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“Even more important for Romney, he swamped Santorum by winning 39 of the 54 elected delegates up for grabs in the state. Santorum had only five, though votes were still being counted in several Downstate congressional districts where he ran strongest.”
Chicago Sun Times: “Romney’s team knew that the suburbs were key — and scheduled a series of stops in the northwest suburbs in the closing days of the Illinois campaign.”
Illinois Primary Results
Exit polls: “Approximately two-thirds of Illinois primary voters said they want their preferred candidate to prevail regardless of how long that might take.”
Nate Silver notes that exits polls also show that 32% of Illinois voters decided whom to vote for either just today or in the last few days, a figure larger than in most other recent states.
CNN exit polls show Mitt Romney leading the Illinois GOP primary with 45%, followed by Rick Santorum at 35%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Ron Paul at 8%.
Fox News projects Mitt Romney will win the Illinois primary.
Bad Religion
Coming next month: Bad Religion: How We Became a Nation of Heretics by Ross Douthat.
The author explains how American Christianity “has gone off the rails — and why it threatens to take American society with it.”
New York Magazine: “Heresies, in his telling, include Eat Pray Love, Jimmy Swaggart, and, say, the notion that Jesus would have signed Grover Norquist’s anti-tax pledge.”
Santorum Way Ahead in Louisiana
A new Magellan Strategies poll in Louisiana finds Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by 13 points in Saturday’s GOP primary, 37% to 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 24% and Ron Paul at 3%.
If Gingrich were not in the race, 61% of his support would go to Santorum, and only 22% to Romney. In a one-on-one contest, Santorum would defeat Romney by 21 points, 55% to 34%.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I think he has not done as well as we had hoped. None of us ever do in campaigns.”
— Sen. John McCain, in an interview with Don Imus, on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.
