A new Public Policy Polling survey in Texas shows David Dewhurst (R) leads Ted Cruz (R) by a whopping 17 points in the GOP Senate primary, 46% to 29%
The main question on Tuesday will be whether Dewhurst can get over 50% and avoid a runoff.
Clinton Takes Photo with Porn Stars
The Little Blue Book
Just published: The Little Blue Book: The Essential Guide to Thinking and Talking Democratic by George Lakoff and Elisabeth Wehling.
Introducing Wonk Wire
Bonus Quote of the Day
“It’s creepy. I still hurt every time I see it.”
— South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), quoted by Politico, on video that surfaced of a union leader hitting a pinata featuring her face.
Obama at 48%
First Read notes President Obama’s approval rating is now a solid 48% and that he’s also at 48% in three new battleground state polls.
“What does this mean? Is 48% a good thing or bad thing? On the one hand, he’s leading and in the high 40s, despite what’s been a rocky and volatile last few weeks (the April jobs numbers, the worries out of Europe, the rushed gay-marriage announcement, etc.). On the other hand, he remains below that important 50% threshold that’s usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney is well within striking distance, especially given all of Europe’s economic uncertainty.”
“Bottom line: 48% is really the knife’s edge; not quite close enough where you can just fall over the 50% finish line, but close enough that it doesn’t take much. It’s a number to follow in the months ahead.”
Gay Marriage Likely to Pass in Maryland
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s historic announcement two weeks ago.
The referendum to keep the state’s new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin, 57% to 37%, a 12 point shift from a similar survey in early March.
Trump Mulls Creating a Super PAC
Donald Trump tells Newsmax that he is seriously considering launching his own super PAC.
His goal would be to produce ads against President Obama that show how Washington is permitting outsiders to “absolutely suck the blood out of this country.”
Said Trump: “If I did one I would show how bad we’re doing as a country, how disrespected we are as a country. I would show people from OPEC, 11 people sitting around a beautiful gold-encrusted table talking about how they are going to continue to rip off the United States.”
Quote of the Day
“I’m so boring that I didn’t even know I was boring.”
— Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), quoted by the Washington Post.
Obama Leads in Three Key Swing States
New NBC Marist polls find President Obama with a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in three of the most pivotal presidential battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Walker Looks Likely to Avoid Recall
A new Reason-Rupe poll in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) eight points ahead of challenger Tom Barrett (D) in the recall race, 50% to 42%.
A new St. Norbert College poll finds Walker leading by five points, 50% to 45%.
A new We Ask America poll shows Walker leading by 12 points, 54% to 42%.
Senate Race Still Tight in Massachusetts
A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) with a slight lead over challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), 48% to 47%.
Said pollster David Paleologos: “Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election.”
Also interesting: 72% were aware of the recent controversy concerning Warren’s heritage. Of those, 49% said Warren was telling the truth about being part Native American; 28% said she was not telling the truth; and 23% weren’t sure.
Rehberg Accident Featured On Boat Safety Poster
Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT), who is running for U.S. Senate in Montana, has become the poster child for boating safety, but not in a good way, the Huffington Post reports.
“Rehberg was one of several people injured in a 2009 boating wreck when the speedboat he was riding in… slammed into the rocky shore of a lake… The startling photo of the wreck, with the boat entirely out of the water, made most local papers. And now, it’s the feature photo of a boating safety campaign in Montana.”
Romney Widens Lead in Arizona
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Mitt Romney has now opened back up a seven point lead over President Obama, 50% to 43%.
During the GOP primaries, similar surveys suggested the state might be winnable for Democrats.
Romney’s Most Trusted Adviser
The New Republic profiles Bob White, a “longtime-pal-cum-alter-ego” to Mitt Romney.
“White, who is trim with graying brown hair, was one of Romney’s original hires when launching the private-equity firm back in the 1980s. He has been at Romney’s side in every major endeavor he’s undertaken since, from the Olympics to the campaign trail. Over the course of Romney’s career, White has served as debate prepper, personnel vetter, designated gut-checker, in-house historian, and diplomatic envoy. It was White who found Romney a campaign manager for his run for governor, White who headed his transition to the Massachusetts statehouse, White who has chaired his campaigns for president.”
Americans Split on Biden
Gallup finds that Americans are about equally likely to have a favorable (42%) as an
unfavorable (45%) view of Joe Biden, which has been the case for most of
his tenure as vice president.
Proving Which Campaign Ads are Most Effective
Sasha Issenberg notes that political campaigns used to guess which ads were most effective, but the Obama re-election campaign is trying to prove it using random tests.
“To those familiar with the campaign’s operations, such irregular efforts at paid communication are indicators of an experimental revolution underway at Obama’s Chicago headquarters. They reflect a commitment to using randomized trials… designed to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus groups and surveys.”
Romney Promises Unemployment Rate of 6%
Mitt Romney told Mark Halperin that if he’s elected president “we’d get the unemployment rate down to 6%, and perhaps a little lower.”
However, just a few weeks ago, as NBC News reported, Romney said that anything “over 4% is not cause for celebration.”
ThinkProgress: “Though 6 percent unemployment is significantly lower than the current 8.1 percent rate, the feat isn’t all that remarkable. In fact, it is exactly where multiple government agencies project unemployment will be at the end of that time frame. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that unemployment will average 6.3 percent in 2016; the Office of Management and Budget, meanwhile, projects unemployment will hit 6.1 percent and ultimately fall below 6 percent the same year.”
