The latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll finds GOP insiders almost unanimous in thinking Mitt Romney will win their party’s presidential nomination.
Obama Will Struggle if Approval Doesn’t Rise
Charlie Cook takes a look at the most recent national polling on the presidential race.
“These numbers certainly don’t show Obama’s reelection fortunes as hopeless, but they paint a very challenging situation. If events and the state of the economy don’t change enough to raise his approval rating and his chances of winning an election that is framed as a referendum on his tenure, he will have to try to turn the contest into a choice between him and the GOP nominee. That will be easier if Republicans nominate an ideologue (and this still might be possible in a matchup with Romney). Recall the 2004 Bush-Cheney reelection campaign when it turned Democratic nominee John Kerry into an ideological weathervane, an unacceptable choice.”
Quote of the Day
“It’s been a brutal three years. It’s been a very, very difficult three years, an incredible three years.”
— White House chief of staff Bill Daley, in an interview with Roger Simon.
Obama’s Lobbyist Loophole
“Despite a pledge not to take money from lobbyists, President Obama has relied on prominent supporters who are active in the lobbying industry to raise millions of dollars for his re-election bid,” the New York Times reports.
“At least 15 of Mr. Obama’s ‘bundlers’ — supporters who contribute their own money to his campaign and solicit it from others — are involved in lobbying for Washington consulting shops or private companies. They have raised more than $5 million so far for the campaign.”
Drop in Support for Health Care Law
A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll shows the health care reform law’s popularity hit an all-time low this month.
Just 34% of those surveyed said they have a favorable view while 51% said they have an unfavorable view.
Politico: “That’s more lopsided than most of the Kaiser tracking polls have found since President Barack Obama signed the legislation into law. In most cases, the public has been about evenly split in its views of the law. The big difference this time is that Democrats seem to be souring on the reform law.”
Warren Gathers the Volunteers
Mother Jones
has a photo of the massive crowd that turned out at a recent volunteer
meeting in Massachusetts for U.S. Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren (D),
noting that it “looks more like the kind of crowd you’d see at
presidential volunteer meeting late in the campaign than a rally for a
Senate candidate 13 months before the general election.”
Top Cain Aide Has Checkered Past
The AP profiles Mark Block, Herman Cain’s unorthodox campaign manager made famous in the viral ad that shows him smoking a cigarette. He’s “left a trail of questionable campaign work behind him.”
“Block has been accused of voter suppression and was banned from running Wisconsin political campaigns for three years to settle accusations he coordinated a judge’s re-election campaign with a special interest group. Records show Block has faced foreclosure on his home, a tax warrant by the Internal Revenue Service and a lawsuit for an unpaid bill. He also acknowledges he was arrested twice for drunken driving.”
High Price to See Cain and Gingrich Debate
If you want to see next month’s “modified Lincoln-Douglas debate” between Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich — not carried on television — it will cost you, the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Bleacher seating at the Gingrich/Cain debate, hosted by the Texas Tea Party Patriots at the Woodlands Resort in Houston, costs a cool $200. The next step up, the $500 ticket, gets you ‘prime seating’ and a ticket to the ‘Nite Cap party after the Debate,’ … And for the really high rollers, $1,000 will get you ‘the best seating in the house for the debate’ and ‘a professional picture taken with the candidates.'”
There’s no word if the candidates are getting paid for their appearance, but Dave Weigel, who first broke the story, reports proceeds will go to the Tea Party Patriots group.
Bachmann for Halloween!
The Daily Beast reports Newsweek‘s Michele Bachmann cover has become a Halloween costume.
Crist Remains Popular in Florida
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Charlie Crist remains a popular figure in the state with a 51% to 34% favorability rating and if he were to run as a Democrat to reclaim his old office against Gov. Rick Scott (R) he would lead by 13 points at 51% to 38%.
In a hypothetical rematch of last year’s race, Alex Sink (D) would lead Scott 52% to 41%.
2012 Ad War: Rick Perry’s Glossy Pitch
This is the first in a guest series from Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.
In the coming weeks and months, the Republican primary campaign will shift from debating and handshaking to the far more expensive – and often uglier – realm of paid media.
While we haven’t yet seen many candidates go up on the airwaves, we are seeing an uptick in the number of web ads – commercials designed not for a television audience, but for online viewers.
Web ads are a great way to tinker with the candidate’s message while earning free (or very inexpensive) coverage. Think of them as spring training for media consultants.
Last week, Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a powerful ad that almost surely previews his traditional television advertising campaign to come. Politics aside, the ad is not only a master stroke by his campaign team, but required viewing for anyone interested in the art of candidate marketing.
FBI Arrests Man for Extortion Threat Against Tomblin
The FBI alleges a Florida man “attempted an extortion plot that threatened to smear acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in West Virginia’s upcoming special election for governor,” the AP reports.
The threat involved a video allegedly showing inhumane practices at an Oklahoma greyhound kennel. In the emails, the man says the campaign of Bill Maloney (R), wanted the video. Maloney has attacked Tomblin over his mother’s greyhound breeding business.
The special election is on Tuesday.
Huckabee Reconsiders Presidential Bid
Mike Huckabee “has been approached by Republican and conservative activists unhappy with the current crop of presidential hopefuls and he is considering entering the fray,” Reuters reports.
Update: A source close to Huckabee tells CBS News that “there are
certainly people that have asked him to reconsider his decision, even
more so lately, but at this point that is not something he is doing.”
Connecticut a Toss Up State?
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds President Obama barely leading Mitt Romney in a general election match up, 47% to 45%.
Key findings: “Obama’s poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity. Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49. That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March.”
However, Obama leads the rest of the Republican field by double digits.
Did the Baby Boomers Break Government?
CNN: “Could it be that the reason our government is broken is because of which generation is running things?”
“Authors Morley Winograd and Michael Hais think so, insisting that the problem is that power is now firmly in the hands of self-righteous baby boomers who have spent their entire lives convinced that anyone who disagrees with them is morally inferior. Boomers won’t negotiate anything, Winograd and Hais say, because they think every position they hold is rooted in something no less sacred than their values, and they’re understandably reluctant to negotiate their values.”
Searching for Sarah Palin
Jack Shafer reviews The Rogue by Joe McGinniss:
“To call a book a hatchet job is not necessarily to disparage it. Some subjects can’t be accurately rendered in a fair and balanced sketch, demanding instead the defacement that Lucian Freud brought to portraiture. That said, a smartly swung sharp blade makes for better literary blood sport than the butt-end bludgeonry McGinniss visits upon Palin and her husband, Todd…”
“By book’s end, I felt a little like the Palins — eager for McGinniss to
move out of my neighborhood. He establishes that Sarah Palin’s
ambitions dwarf her talents, that she’s the world’s oldest mean girl and
that she has a tendency to become a liability to even her closest
allies. But no hatchet job was needed to convince an average reader of
that. The only fresh meat McGinniss cuts in The Rogue is connected to
his knuckles.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I believe that marriage is between a man and woman. It has been for all of recorded history and I think this is a temporary aberration that will dissipate.”
— Newt Gingrich, quoted by the Des Moines Register, on gay marriage.
Palin Backs Off Her Own Deadline
Sarah Palin told Fox News she would be making any decisions on a presidential run by her own self-imposed deadline by the end of September.
Said Palin: “I hold my political cards close to my chest. I’ve certainly learned lessons along those lines, and I’m going to continue to do that until I’m ready to make an announcement. This is a serious decision, and I’m engaged in serious deliberations and within the next 24 hours, don’t look for me to make a decision.”
Just in case, Red State is giving hourly updates.
