Walter Shapiro: “The dirty secret of campaign journalism for the next 11 days is that
there is no way for conscientious reporters to give readers what they
crave most of all–advance knowledge of who is going to win the election.
We have reached the point in the campaign when the polls are too close
and the dictates of spin too intense for anyone but a fool (or a TV
pundit) to offer anything more than tentative guesses about who is going
to be inaugurated on January 20.”

“When I was younger–and cockier about divining the future–I was convinced
that if you had the right sources within a campaign, you could figure
out the gist of their internal polling by their off-the-record mood and
body language. So I was privy to the buoyant mood at the upper levels of
the John Kerry campaign during the final heady week of the 2004
campaign. Sometimes in politics, though, the most potent spin comes from
the lies that campaign strategists tell themselves as they interpret
ambiguous information.”

President Obama is out with a new closing ad in several key swing states this morning, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.

The spot asks voters to remember when it’s “just you” in the voting booth what Mitt Romney’s policies will mean.

[Read more…]

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Missouri finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) with a narrow lead over Rep. Todd Akin (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 43%.

Akin is benefiting from McCaskill’s “seemingly intractable favorability rating, one of the few constants in a race of dizzying changes this year. The poll found that while McCaskill has a much higher favorable rating than Akin does — at 40%, to his 28% — she also has the higher unfavorable rating, at 47% to his 42%.”

Update: McCaskill reponds releasing an internal poll showing her with a huge, 52% to 39% lead. National Journal suggests one reason to believe this poll is that the DSCC is already cutting ad spending in the state.

The Washington Post notes most polls at this moment suggest Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama.

“So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency by winning 270 votes or more in the electoral college?”

“That kind of split decision between the electorate and the electoral college would mark the fifth time in American history — and the second time in a dozen years — that the person who occupies the White House was not the one who got the most votes on Election Day.”

Jason Sattler: Mitt Romney is losing the election that matters.

An Indiana man told ABC News he auctioned off space on the side of his head, where he tattooed Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign “R” logo in a 5-by-2-inch spot for a bid of $15,000.

Said Eric Hartsburg: “I am a registered Republican and a Romney supporter. I didn’t mind getting this tattoo because it is something that I could live with and it’s something that I believe in.”

“Colin Powell, interestingly enough, said that Obama got us out of Iraq. But it was Colin Powell, with his testimony before the U.N. Security Council, that got us into Iraq.”

— Sen. John McCain, quoted by the National Review, upset with the former Secretary of State’s endorsement of President Obama.

BuzzFeed finds the Romney campaign modified an image of a Nevada campaign rally to exaggerate the size of the crowd.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are both on pace to raise more than $1 billion with their parties by Election Day, the New York Times reports.

“From the beginning of 2011 through Oct. 17, Mr. Obama and the Democrats raised about $1.06 billion, and Mr. Romney and the Republicans collected $954 million… The overall totals do not include hundreds of millions of dollars being raised and spent by “super PACs” and other outside groups, mostly to benefit Mr. Romney and other Republicans.”

Psychology Today: “If the subject isn’t very important to you or you have other things on your mind, misinformation is more likely to take hold, according to the researchers. They point out that rejecting false information requires more cognitive effort than just taking it in. That is, weighing how plausible a message is, or assessing the reliability of its source, is more difficult, cognitively, than simply accepting that the message is true. In short, it takes more mental work. And if the topic isn’t very important to you or you have other things on your mind, the misinformation is more likely to take hold.”

“Moreover, when you do take the time to evaluate a claim or allegation,
you’re likely to pay attention just to a limited number of features, the
study found. For example: Does the information fit with other things
you already believe? Does it make a coherent story with what you already
know? Does it come from a credible source? And do others believe it?”

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs)

Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Purple Strategies)

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% (Sunshine State News)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Gravis)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (New England College)

North Carolina: Romney 53%, Obama 45% (Gravis)

North Carolina: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Civitas)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)

Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Purple Strategies)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (CNN/ORC)

Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Purple Strategies)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

You’ll want this for watching Election Night returns: Electionary.

Gallup finds the composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.

As a result, the election’s outcome “may hinge more on how groups vote rather than to what extent they will vote. And most groups are currently less likely to support Obama now than they were in 2008. However, Obama’s seven-point margin of victory in the 2008 election leaves him considerable breathing room to lose electoral support yet still win the election.”

“Ayn Rand is one of those things that a lot of us, when we were 17 or 18 and feeling misunderstood, we’d pick up.”

— President Obama, in an interview with Rolling Stone.