A new ABC News-Washington Post poll finds just 36% express a favorable opinion of the health care law under Supreme Court review, but just 39% like the health care system as it currently stands.
“That means that while the intended fix is unpopular, so is the status quo – leaving the public still in search of solutions.”
Jonathan Martin notes that populism — “with its rowdy zeal to brawl against economic elites on behalf of the working classes” — was for decades the Democratic party’s defining cause but it’s now largely been abandoned.
“The recent convergence of setbacks on the left has activists and historians alike pondering anew how the modern Democratic Party has severed its connection to its own history — a tradition that many liberals wrongly imagined was about to spring back to life in the Obama years… These days, it’s possible to count on one hand the number of unapologetic populists in the U.S. Senate and, besides Elizabeth Warren, there are few more on the horizon.”
“For the fighting left, it is a frustrating puzzle. If ever there was a moment for a good, old-fashioned class war, at first blush it seems now should be the time. Yet even after the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, there are few politicians preaching, or practicing, the old-time religion.”
Sean Trende: “The real Supreme Court news on Tuesday wasn’t the Arizona immigration decision or even the summary reversal of the Supreme Court of Montana in the ‘Citizens United 2’ case. It was that the chief justice of the United States didn’t write any of these opinions.”
“This is critically important, because we can now deduce with a reasonably high degree of certainty that John Roberts is writing the lead health care opinion. If we are right about this, then the law is in even deeper trouble that most observers imagined.”
However, Ed Whelan reads the tea leaves and concludes “the Court will invalidate the individual mandate by a 5-4 vote.”
Businessweek: Anthony Kennedy, the Justice everyone is watching.
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With a House vote scheduled tomorrow to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt over the “Fast and Furious” investigation, an investigation by Fortune magazine suggests that the ATF never intentionally allowed guns to fall in the hands of a Mexican cartel.
“Nobody disputes that suspected straw purchasers under surveillance by the ATF repeatedly bought guns that eventually fell into criminal hands. Issa and others charge that the ATF intentionally allowed guns to walk as an operational tactic. But five law-enforcement agents directly involved in Fast and Furious tell Fortune that the ATF had no such tactic. They insist they never purposefully allowed guns to be illegally trafficked. Just the opposite: They say they seized weapons whenever they could but were hamstrung by prosecutors and weak laws, which stymied them at every turn. Indeed, a six-month Fortune investigation reveals that the public case alleging that Voth and his colleagues walked guns is replete with distortions, errors, partial truths, and even some outright lies.”
While the national numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll show a stable presidential race, First Read notes Mitt Romney had a “rough month” in the swing states.
“Among the voters in our poll living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama’s lead over Romney increases to 50%-42%. Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped: A month ago, Romney’s fav/unfav score stood at 34%/38% nationally and 36%-36% in these 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33%-39% (that 39% unfav is tied with his all-time high) and 30%-41% in the swing states.”
“What’s more, the poll shows that attitudes about Romney’s business background also are more unfavorable in these battlegrounds. Among swing-state respondents, 18% say what they’ve seen and heard about Romney’s business record gives them a more POSITIVE opinion about the Republican candidate, versus 33% who say it’s more NEGATIVE. That’s compared to the national 23%-to-28% margin on this question. The obvious conclusion here is that the negative TV ads pummeling Romney in the battleground states — like here and here and here — are having an impact.”
The Boston Globe previews Mitt Romney’s message after tomorrow’s Supreme Court ruling on President Obama’s health care plan:
“If the law is rejected, Romney plans to argue that Obama wasted both his time, and the time of the American people, by pursuing a policy that doesn’t pass constitutional muster. If the law is upheld, Romney would argue that opponents need to elect him so that he can overturn it himself.”
Jon Stewart turns his attention to “Fast and Furious” and Republican outrage over the botched ATF operation.
Best line: “They throw around the term Watergate so much at Fox, you’d think the guy running Fox had been a Nixon operative.”
“If they want to win an election, they need to be in their districts… A trip to Charlotte may be interesting, but why leave your districts?”
— DCCC chairman Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by Reuters, telling lawmakers they should skip the Democratic national convention.
President Obama plans a two-day road trip through Pennsylvania and Ohio beginning July 5, the AP reports.
“It will be the president’s first bus tour of the 2012 campaign… The president will still headline campaign fundraisers through the fall, but the official said Obama’s schedule would start to include more of a mix of campaign rallies and other events focused on speaking directly to a wide swath of voters in the states Obama needs most in order to hold the White House.”
A Old Dominion University/Virginian-Pilot poll in Virginia finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney in the crucial battleground state, 49% to 42%.
A poll yesterday found Romney with a five point lead.
A new Quinnipiac poll finds President Obama with leads in the important battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Florida: Obama 45%, Romney 41%
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 38%
Pennsylvania: Obama 45%, Romney 39%.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election.”
Rep. John Sullivan (R-OK) “became the first Oklahoma congressman ousted in 18 years Tuesday, as political newcomer Jim Bridenstine staged a Republican primary upset in the Tulsa-area district Sullivan has represented for a decade,” the Oklahoman reports.
He is the fourth incumbent to lose a primary challenge this year.
Politico calls Sullivan “an incumbent caught sleeping.”
“The tea party, big-spending PACs and challenger Dan Liljenquist failed Tuesday to force 78-year-old Orrin Hatch into retirement,” the Salt Lake Tribune reports.
“The self-proclaimed ‘tough old bird’ flew easily through the GOP primary, so now only Democrat Scott Howell stands between him and a record-shattering seventh term.”
Surviving one of the toughest re-election fights of his career, Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) “fended off four challengers on Tuesday to win the Democratic nomination for a 22nd term in Congress,” the New York Times reports.
“Rangel’s victory capped a gripping campaign for a Congressional seat that for decades has been at the center of black political power — and preserved a career in Washington that had been threatened by ethics troubles and changing demographics.”
Rick Santorum “will return to Iowa next month to hold a pair of ‘thank you’ events in the state that vaulted his long-shot presidential campaign into national competition,” Politico reports.
A new Gallup poll finds 81% of respondents think President Obama “is likable” while just 64% said the same of Mitt Romney.
Meanwhile, both candidates get their lowest scores for having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems — 40% say Obama does and 38% say Romney does.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds President Obama has managed to retain a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in his race for re-election despite a spate of bad economic news and surging GOP optimism, 47% to 44%.
“The poll highlights challenges facing both candidates. While Mr. Obama retains a durable base of support, his standing among white, working-class voters, which was low to start with, continues to erode. Interest in the campaign isn’t nearly as intense as it was four years ago among young people and Latinos, who were important to Mr. Obama’s victory in 2008.”
“At the same time, more people viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably than favorably by a 6-point margin, with nearly one-quarter of those polled viewing him ‘very negatively,’ twice the level found in December. Mr. Romney’s business background, which he has made a central element of his candidacy, is a draw for many, the poll found. But it is viewed negatively by even more people.”
“During their long campaign to loosen rules on campaign money, conservatives argued that there was a simpler way to prevent corruption: transparency. Get rid of limits on contributions and spending, they said, but make sure voters know where the money is coming from,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“Today, with those fundraising restrictions largely removed, many conservatives have changed their tune. They now say disclosure could be an enemy of free speech.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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