“It’s a real possibility. Right now I’d say it’s 50-50. The base wants its chance to have their say. They aren’t going to want it to end early, before they get their chance, which means that the process could go all the way to Tampa.”
— Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele, quoted by the Huffington Post, on the chances of an open or undecided Republican National Convention.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) told Bloomberg he will “stay neutral” in the state’s Republican presidential primary while warning his party’s candidates to leave the “circular firing squad” of their debates behind and start appealing to a broader audience.
James Carville: “Memo to Republican Establishment: Let me break it to you gently — you’ve got a first-class disaster on your hands. I know you boys thought this thing would work out and you would be able to whip the Republicans in line to fall in behind Mitt (I assume you are all males but if there is a female in the establishment, I apologize.) Not going too good, is it fellows?”
Andrew Sullivan: “This is the Republican crack-up people have been predicting for years. Gingrich is on a roll. I think he can win this – and then lose this in a way that could change America history. That is a brief impression in one moment of time. But I cannot see Romney winning this at this point. They are just not into him, and he’s an awful candidate.”
Brad Phillips: “If Mitt Romney had won, he would have become the de facto nominee earlier than any other presidential candidate in U.S. history, meaning that he alone would have had to endure more media scrutiny – for a longer period of time – than any of his predecessors. Instead, he’ll now continue to share the media’s harsh glare with Newt Gingrich, a severely flawed candidate who will steal some of the limelight and help buffer Mr. Romney’s coverage. More stories about Mr. Gingrich’s angry ex-wife and messy leadership as House Speaker means fewer stories about Mr. Romney’s tax returns and Bain Capital.”
Jonathan Chait: “My view all along has been that any remotely plausible candidate could beat Mitt Romney. My current view is that there are no remotely plausible candidates, which leaves us with Newt. So we have the immovable object meeting the irresistible force, except the exact opposite. Like almost everybody outside Gingrich’s immediate family, I had already written him off twice. But he really seems okay. If some really crazy rich conservatives decide to write him some seven- or eight-figure checks, who knows?”
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Newt Gingrich overwhelmingly won the South Carolina Republican presidential primary, according to projections by most of the television networks.
By any measure, it’s a devastating loss to frontrunner Mitt Romney who once led in the polls by double digits hoped to finish off his rivals in the Palmetto State. If Gingrich can keep his momentum going into Florida’s primary at the end of the month — a big question — the GOP race could once again be up for grabs.
The winner of the 2012 Iowa caucuses was Rick Santorum, but the Des Moines Register reports, “the loser, it’s becoming clear, was Iowa.”
“The certified results released this week from the nation’s first presidential nominating contest revealed that Mitt Romney’s declared eight-vote victory on caucus night was actually a 34-vote defeat. They revealed that eight voting precincts went missing in action, and their votes will never be counted. And they were accompanied by evolving statements from the Republican Party of Iowa, which, having initially called the race for Romney, first declared this week’s result a ;split decision’ and only later acknowledged victory for Santorum.”
“Such a muddled result and response threatens the already-contested legitimacy of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status and underscores the need for reforms to professionalize the voting process.”
President Obama will use his State of the Union address on Tuesday “to define an activist role for government in promoting a prosperous and equitable society, hoping to draw a stark contrast between the parties in a time of deep economic uncertainty,” the New York Times reports.
Obama will promise a populist “blueprint for an American economy that’s built to last,” with the government assisting to ensure “an America where everybody gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share and everybody plays by the same set of rules.”
With three days remaining until the speech, the Washington Post reports Obama said he has yet to finish writing his address, “so there might be a few late nights between now and then.”
“I think you’re going to see the same kind of long slog that you saw in
’76, with Ford and Reagan, that it took the whole
thing to win.”
— Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu (R), quoted by the Huffington Post, managing expectations for a possible Mitt Romney loss in South Carolina.
Mitt Romney says he will attend the next GOP presidential debates in Florida, the AP reports.
“After last weekend’s two debates in South Carolina, advisers to the former Massachusetts governor had said the candidate hadn’t committed to any more campaign debates. But Romney said Saturday, on the day when South Carolinians are voting in their state’s GOP primary, that he will be at the Tampa debate on Monday, and advisers say he also will participate in the Jacksonville debate on Thursday.”
Although Mitt Romney’s campaign is buzzing about new momentum in South Carolina, BuzzFeed finds that many of the students cheering on the candidate at a recent University of South Carolina rally were actually Brigham Young University students and young Mormons from Wasnhington, D.C. and Virginia “who traveled to the Palmetto State to give their
coreligionist’s presidential effort a much-needed jolt of energy.”
CNN reports the latest low point in the attacks on Newt Gingrich,
as it has discovered that a “fake CNN Breaking News alert was emailed to
state Republican activists early Thursday morning claiming that the
former House Speaker pressured his ex-wife to have an abortion.”
The
fake email reads: “A source close to Marianne Gingrich tells CNN that
former House Speaker Newt Gingrich forced her to abort a pregnancy
conceived during the affair that preceeded her marriage to Gingrich.”
Meanwhile,
ABC News notes that an equally deceiving fake press release followed
the email, meant to look as if it came from the Gingrich campaign. Key
fake quote from Gingrich: “I am not proud of some decisions I have made
or actions I have taken, but I believe in the power of redemption and I
trust the voters of South Carolina do as well.”
It’s been two years since the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision which unleashed millions of dollars of ads financed not by candidates but by groups with innocuous names claiming no relationship to the candidates.
Norm Ornstein: “By giving corporations free rein to meddle in politics without any accountability required, just like in the robber baron days, and by defining money as speech, the court dealt a body blow to American democracy. Candidates no longer can focus simply on raising money for their campaigns against other candidates. Because corporations have almost unlimited sums they can put in with no notice, candidates have to raise protection money in advance just in case such a campaign is waged against them.”
“And in many cases, as I have written before, they will pay for protection by quietly giving companies or other interests what they want legislatively to avoid a multimillion-dollar slime campaign against them. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion in Citizens United, said there could be no corruption in independent spending. What planet does he live on?”
It’s a big day in South Carolina as Republicans head to the polls to make their pick for GOP nominee.
Can Mitt Romney win in a state where he finished fourth four years ago and essentially become the de facto nominee? Or will Newt Gingrich pull out a win after his candidacy was left for dead a second time?
Polls close at 7:00 pm ET.
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina primary day as the clear front runner in the state: he’s now leading with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 28%, Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 14%.
Key finding: “Gingrich’s lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife’s controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.”
A new YouGov poll finds Gingrich at 33%, Romney at 29%, Paul at 18% and Santorum at 16%.
A new American Research Group poll shows Gingrich at 40%, Romney at 26%, Paul at 18% and Santorum at 13%.
“The idea that I am supposed to follow exactly what my dad did is not something I find terribly compelling.”
— Mitt Romney, quotes by The Hill, responding to those who note that
his father, former Michigan Gov. George Romney, started the tradition of politicians releasing their tax returns in
1967.
The Supreme Court instructed the district court that overturned and
redrew the Texas Legislature’s redistricting map to try again, The New
York Times reports. In an unsigned unanimous decision, the Justices said
“the lower court had not paid enough deference to the Legislature’s
choices and had improperly substituted its own values for those of
elected officials.”
“The justices acted just 11 days after hearing
arguments in the case. Primaries in Texas had already been moved back to
April. For those primaries to proceed, officials there said, an answer
from the courts was needed by Feb. 1… As many as four House seats hang
in the balance, experts in election administration say.”
“To be in a neck-and-neck race at this last moment is kind of exciting. I
wish it were a winner-take-all-state. I wish we had all winner take all
states. But we don’t. So It looks like it’s going to be a longer
process than perhaps than that would have suggested.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by the Miami Herald.
A new Clemson Palmetto poll in South Carolina shows Newt Gingrich leading the GOP primary race with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Ron Paul at 11% and Rick Santorum at 9%.
Twenty percent of the likely voters remain undecided.
Said pollster Dave Woodard: “We expect a reaction by the electorate to the personal revelations about Gingrich to be registered on Saturday, however, we do not think it will be substantial enough to erase the lead Gingrich has over Romney.”
Mitt Romney’s once 24 point lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll is now down to just 10 points. Gallup editor Frank Newport told MSNBC that Romney’s support was “clearly
collapsing.”
The poll is a five day rolling average so it doesn’t even fully reflect the last few days which, of course, haven’t been Romney’s best.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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