A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) by seven points, 46% to 39%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 10%.
Tight Senate Primary in Hawaii
A new Civil Beat poll in Hawaii finds Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) barely ahead of Democratic primary challenger Colleen Hanbusa (D), 38% to 36%.
7 Republican Senators Most Vulnerable to a Primary
Roll Call: “Hard-line conservatives are rising out of the ashes of a weekslong government shutdown, emboldened by the possibility of adding to their ranks in the Senate next year — whether by picking up Democrat-held seats or taking out Republican incumbents.”
Lee Facing Backlash Over Government Shutdown
“When Mike Lee toppled longtime Republican Sen. Robert F. Bennett here in 2010, it was the tea party’s first big triumph. But now, after a 16-day government shutdown, it’s Lee who faces a revolt within his own party,” the Washington Post reports.
“Lee’s approval ratings in Utah have cratered, and prominent Republicans and local business executives are openly discussing the possibility of mounting a primary challenge against him. Top Republicans are also maneuvering to redesign the party’s nomination system in a way that would likely make it more difficult for Lee to win reelection in 2016.”
Wall Street Journal: “Critics in the Republican Party, including former governors and
sitting legislative leaders, openly blame Mr. Lee for helping chart a
course they say weakened the party’s standing nationally and dented a
state economy reliant on tourists drawn to its national parks.”
Will Ryan Cut a Deal?
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “faces a crucial moment in his political career as the formal House-Senate budget conference gets underway,” The Hill reports.
“Those who want to see a deal — a group that includes deficit hawks, appropriators, defense and farm lobbyists — say the popular House Budget Committee chairman can bargain. They argue that if anyone could sell a compromise to the restive House GOP, it is Ryan, and say there is enough wiggle room to do a deal.”
Sebelius in a Firestorm
New York Times: “The first, and perhaps most painful, call for Kathleen Sebelius to resign as President Obama’s health secretary came this month from an old family friend: Senator Pat Roberts, Republican of Kansas, who once boasted of a ‘special relationship’ with Ms. Sebelius, forged when he worked for her father-in-law.”
“Now Ms. Sebelius, the former Kansas governor who is the public face of Mr. Obama’s health care overhaul, is facing a barrage of criticism over the problem-plagued rollout of its online insurance exchange. For Republicans, still reeling from their failed “defund Obamacare” strategy and government shutdown, she has proved an easy target.”
Politico: “Kathleen Sebelius may be irreplaceable — in that she cannot be replaced. Not because President Obama wouldn’t be able to find someone else to do the job, or that anyone’s too pleased with the launch of the Obamacare website. But the White House and Democrats on the Hill know a potential confirmation fight would be so torturous and difficult that they’re better off sticking with the Health and Human Services secretary they’ve got, despite all that’s gone wrong on her watch.”
White House Official Fired for Tweeting Under False Name
Josh Rogin: “A White House national security official was fired last week after being caught as the mystery Tweeter who has been tormenting the foreign policy community with insulting comments and revealing internal Obama administration information for over two years.”
“Jofi Joseph, a director in the non-proliferation section of the National Security Staff at the White House, has been surreptitiously tweeting under the moniker @natsecwonk, a Twitter feed famous inside Washington policy circles since it began in February, 2011 until it was shut down last week.”
GOP Unfavorables at All-Time High
A new CNN/ORC poll finds that 64% of Americans say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican party, an all-time high dating back to 1992 when CNN first asked the question. Only 30% say they hold a favorable view of the party.
Meanwhile, 56% say they have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement, another record high in CNN polling.
Will Independents Jolt the Two-Party System?
Joe Klein: “I’ve been skeptical about 3rd parties in the past. The best of them — the Populists, Ross Perot (at least when it came to budgetary matters) — tend to have their hot ideas co-opted by the Democrats or Republicans. That may still be true…although we’ve seen everything else in society fragmented, niched and marketized.”
“It may be that we won’t see a Third Party, but a rash of Independents breaking out across the country in 2014…. We’ve been doing this two-candidate thing for a long time, but we’ve reached a point of paralysis-a very un-American state of being-and something is going to come along and shock the system back to life.”
Democratic Fundraising Surges
Roll Call: “It’s hard to say which should trouble Republican Party leaders the most right now: the sour mood among GOP donors, or the money suddenly swelling Democratic campaign and super PAC coffers.”
“Not only have the Democratic campaign committees that back House and Senate candidates outraised their GOP counterparts, but unrestricted super PACs that support Democrats have pulled in close to three times what GOP super PACs have so far.”
Did the Shutdown Help Immigration Reform?
Roll Call: “Advocates of an immigration overhaul may see a silver lining in the recent 16-day government shutdown for their cause in the House, sensing that Republicans will want to win back some of the popular support they lost over the past month.”
“But House GOP insiders remain skeptical that the fractured Republican
caucus will be able to get something done on the issue anytime soon.”
One Glitch Away from Taking the House
Jon Stewart: “All that stands in the way of Democratic electoral success is a mildly competent implementation of the health care policy they battled so hard to keep.”
On Wonk Wire
Here’s the latest over at Wonk Wire:
McAuliffe Running Away in Virginia
A new Rasmussen survey in Virgina shows Terry McAuliffe (D) has jumped to a 17-point lead over Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the Virginia gubernatorial race, 50% to 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is a distant third with 8%.
McCain Mulls Running Again
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said that he is considering running for another term in 2016, when he would be 80 years old, the Washington Post reports.
Said McCain on KFYI-AM: “I’m seriously thinking about maybe giving another opportunity for you to vote for or against me in a few years from now. I’m seriously giving that a lot of thought.”
A Wave Might Not Be Enough for Democrats in 2014
Reid Wilson notes that Democrats hold an edge in the generic congressional ballot by 8 points, 48% to 40%.
“But given the challenges Democrats face and the heavily gerrymandered districts that work to protect incumbent members of Congress, it would take a political wave to unseat the House Republican majority. And at the moment, the Democratic advantage isn’t large enough to suggest that a wave is building.”
Nate Cohn: “If there’s anything I could get people to understand about the next election, it’s this: Even a 2006 or 2010-esque tsunami might not give Democrats control of the House.”
McAuliffe Opens Up Early Lead
A new Public Policy Polling survey of early voters in the Virginia Governor’s race finds Terry McAuliffe (D) has opened up a large early lead over Ken Cuccinelli (R) among those who have already cast ballots, 57% to 39%.
New Texas Law Could Supress Women Voting
PolicyMic: “The new Texas law requires all voters to provide a photo ID that reflects their current name. If they cannot, voters must provide any of a series of other acceptable forms of identification all of which must match exactly and match the name on their birth certificate.”
“Supporters of these new laws insist that requiring voters to have an ID that matches their birth certificate is a reasonable requirement. As Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott has repeatedly said, ‘Almost every single person either has a valid photo ID … or it is very easy to get one.’ What they don’t say, however, is that the people who don’t are largely married women who have taken their husband’s name.”
“In fact, only 66% of women have an ID that reflects their current name. If any voter is using name different than what appears on their birth certificate, the voter is required to show proof of name change by providing an original or certified copy of their marriage license, divorce decree, or court ordered name change. Photocopies aren’t accepted.”
