First Read: “If Obama is sitting pretty with his African-American base, the same can’t be said with the middle of the country. In our poll, 56% of independents, 57% of suburban residents, and 52% of folks from the Midwest disapprove of the president’s job. And in a hypothetical match-up against Romney, independents and suburban residents swing for Romney, while folks from the Midwest are split between Obama and Romney. So if Obama’s base could explain why he wins re-election, his struggles with the middle of the country could explain why he loses in 2012.”
The Inside Story of Killing Osama bin Laden
Just published: SEAL Target Geronimo: The Inside Story of the Mission to Kill Osama bin Laden by Chuck Pfarrer.
The Daily Beast notes the author “certainly had access” and was a SEAL Team Six assault-element commander in the 1980s.
Recession: Past or Present?
Bloomberg notes that President Obama routinely describes the recession as both a current condition and an historical event
The president “has toggled between the past and present in the more than 235 references to the economy he has made since Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives one year ago… Obama’s inconsistency could complicate his effort to convince voters the economy has improved and that he deserves a second term, said economists and polling experts. His task, they said, is to talk up the economy, without talking down to the voters who are struggling under it.”
Frustration Remains Very High
The ABC News Frustration Index — based on presidential approval, ratings of the economy, dissatisfaction with the government — is now at 72 on its scale of 0 to 100, one of its highest readings on record.
The index “correlates closely with election outcomes, including the rate at which incumbents
are re-elected and the loss or gain of House seats by the incumbent
president’s party.”
Congressional Dems Move to Obama’s Left
The Hill
reports that congressional Democrats, feeling burned after making
repeated concessions to Republicans over extending the Bush tax cuts and
raising the debt ceiling without new revenues, are determined to play
hardball in the next fight: approval of the supercommittee’s deficit
reduction proposal, to be released later this month.
“Leaders have
demanded that Republicans on the supercommittee agree to substantial tax
increases and are refusing to back down. At the same time, they are
pounding Republicans on the issue of jobs. Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid (D-Nev.) has forced Republicans to vote several times on jobs
legislation — including funding for teachers, first responders and
infrastructure — paid for by slightly increasing the tax rate on income
over $1 million… The argument is this: Republicans have much less
leverage now than earlier.”
Daley Gives Up Some Duties
White House chief of staff Bill Daley “turned over day-to-day management of the West Wing to Pete Rouse, a veteran aide to President Obama,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
The unusual recalibration of Daley’s portfolio “is designed to smooth any kinks in the president’s team as it braces for the overlapping demands of governing while campaigning for re-election, people familiar with the matter said. The West Wing is preparing for budget battles with Congress and is seeking to use its executive powers more extensively.”
The new set-up effectively makes Rouse the president’s inside manager and Daley his ambassador to Congress, “roles that appear to better suit both men’s talents.”
Politico: “Daley’s relationship with some of his West Wing colleagues has been strained, and many pined for Rouse, who served as a bridge between the volatile Rahm Emanuel, now the mayor of Chicago, and Daley, the son and brother of Chicago mayors — who assumed office just ten months ago.”
Cain Will Hold News Conference
Herman Cain will address the latest sexual harassment allegations
against him at a news conference later this afternoon.
According to ABC News, Cain did take questions from comedian Jimmy Kimmel last night about the latest woman to say Cain sexually harassed her.
Said Cain: “At least it wasn’t one of the many that have the first name ‘Anonymous’ — so now this one actually had a name and a face and we’re gonna see who it was and what it was, and tomorrow we’re gonna have a press conference.”
Politico: “Beyond the charges themselves, the widening scandal is now threatening Cain in another way: the story has begun to loom so heavily over the GOP race that it’s irritating Republicans who want to focus on defeating President Obama.”
Cain, Romney Lead in Iowa
A new JMC Enterprises poll in Iowa shows Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied atop the Republican presidential field with 20% each, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16%.
The rest of the field: Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry at 4%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.
Laura Bush Encourages Candidates’ Spouses
Former First Lady Laura Bush offers some first-hand advice to the spouses of the 2012 presidential candidates, reports Politico.
Said
Bush: “Very few people ever in the world have the opportunity to…be
involved in the presidential campaign, so I would say to all of them,
you know, remember these moments and take advantage of the experience,
the life experience, that they are offered… It is a really grueling
process, the campaigns are. And I think that’s good because it’s very
grueling to live there.”
African-Americans Still Overwhelmingly Back Obama
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/theGrio.com poll
finds that 49% of African-Americans feel the country is headed
in the right direction, versus 38% who say the country is on the
wrong track. That’s a sharp contrast from recent polling which shows an
overwhelming majority of all Americans who say the country is on the
wrong track.
Interestingly, an overwhelming 86% of African-Americans said they approve of the
president’s handling of the economy. By contrast, 57% of overall
respondents disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy,
versus just 40% who approve.
Abramoff Opens His Playbook
Notorious ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff reveals the tricks of the trade in an interview with 60 Minutes,
in which he discusses how he was able to exert so much influence over
lawmakers and the title of the book he would like to write, “The Idiot’s
Guide to Buying a Congressman.”
On how to seal the deal:
“When we would become friendly with an office and they were important to
us, and the chief of staff was a competent person, I would say or my
staff would say to him or her at some point, ‘You know, when you’re done
working on the Hill, we’d very much like you to consider coming to work
for us.’ Now the moment I said that to them or any of our staff said
that to ’em, that was it. We owned them.”
On whether subsequent reforms have helped: “The system hasn’t been cleaned up at all.”
Romney Barely Ahead of Cain Nationally
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Mitt Romney with a slight edge over Herman Cain, 28% to 27%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 13%, Ron Paul at 10% and Rick Perry at 10%.
The remainder of the field received less than 5% support.
In general election match ups, President Obama leads Romney by six points, 49% to 43%, and tops Cain by 15 points, 53% to 38%.
More Think Cain Allegations are True
A new Pew Research survey finds that Americans who have heard about the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain, on balance, think they are true rather than false, 39% to 24%.
However, there is a big difference between people who identify with one of the two major political parties. Among Democrats, 51% to 14% think the allegations are true. Among Republicans, 39% to 29% believe they are false.
Negative Lawn Signs
I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen campaign attacks using lawn signs, but a Political Wire reader sends over a funny example from Northern Virginia.
The Real Romney
Coming in January: The Real Romney by Michael Kranish and Scott Helman.
Cain Accused Again
Sharon Bialek told reporters at a press conference that Herman Cain had inappropriately touched her when she asked him for help finding a job. When she resisted, Bialek said Cain told her, “You want a job, don’t you?”
The Cain campaign immediately denied the story saying all sexual harassment accusations are “completely false.”
Some reactions:
Ben Smith: “Gloria Allred knows what she’s doing, and the details of Sharon
Bialek’s story today just look quite awful for Herman Cain. These things
always do in their details, and the press conference ended a streak in
which allegations had remained vague.”
Michelle Malkin: “Twittersphere is lighting up with diverse reaction from
conservatives. Some find Bialek ‘very credible.’ More obituaries being
written for Cain. I need to know more.”
Andrew Sullivan: “Absent any more details, all I can say is that, at the very least, Cain
needs to respond to this specific allegation. I believe the woman, but I
tend to believe most professional women who give credible evidence of
abuse of power by bosses.”
Cain, Romney Tied Nationally
A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich moves up to third place with 12%, followed by Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates are in single digits.
Of the sexual harassment allegations against Cain, 47% of Republicans say the accusations are probably false while 33% say they are probably true.
Republicans Don’t Care About Cain Allegations
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds 54% of Republican voters say they aren’t concerned about the sexual-harassment allegations directed at Herman Cain while another 15% say they are “just a little” concerned.
By comparison, just 13% of Republicans say they are a “great deal” or “quite a bit” concerned about voting for Cain.
