First Read: “The Super Committee’s inability to reach a deal triggers $1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years in military and civilian spending. That’s on top of the nearly $1 trillion Congress cut to raise the debt ceiling in the summer. And consider this: If Congress and Obama let the Bush tax cuts expire — all of them — that would produce another $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years. So if Congress ends up doing NOTHING, you could see $6 trillion in deficit reduction. That said, efforts are already underway to restore military spending cuts, as well as those Bush tax cuts.”
Quote of the Day
“I waste less energy. I do fewer dumb things.”
— Newt Gingrich, in an interview with David Brody, on why he’s a better candidate today than years ago.
GOP Presidential Field to Start Spending Big
As the Republican presidential primary enters its final leg, the
candidates are set to “unleash a torrent of spending — finally hitting
the airwaves with television ads, putting out a steady flood of campaign
mail and revving up their paid organizing efforts,” according to Politico.
“The
2012 field will never catch up with last cycle’s primary spending, but
they’re about to pick up the pace. While it’s impossible to say exactly
how much money the candidates have stockpiled, at least four appear to
have sizable seven-figure sums on hand: Romney, Rick Perry, Herman
Cain and Ron Paul. Both Romney and Perry reported having about $15
million in the bank at the end of September, while Paul announced $3.7
million on hand. Cain had a more modest $1.3 million, but his campaign
has claimed to have raised some $9 million from supporters incensed over
the spate of sexual harassment allegations recently made against him.”
Perry’s Frustrated New Hampshire Supporters
Rick Perry’s campaign manager Rob Johnson “met with a small group of
supporters in New Hampshire last Monday” to play damage control as the
campaign struggles to regain its footing, reports CNN.
“One
said the event felt like ‘an apology tour’ for Perry, who entered the
race to much fanfare but has struggled to gain traction in New
Hampshire. A woman in attendance complained about a lack of
communication from the campaign. Others at the meeting chimed in that
they, too had not been receiving campaign e-mails. Some in the audience
also complained that Perry had not spent enough time campaigning in the
state.”
Kildee Denies Allegations of Sexual Abuse
Rep. Dale Kildee (D-MI) “fiercely denied allegations by distant relatives that he sexually abused a then-12-year-old second cousin several decades ago,” the AP reports.
Kildee, who will retire next year, accused the relatives of working
with “political adversaries to destroy my reputation by lying about
something that never took place.”
The Washington Times first reported the allegations.
Gingrich Soars Ahead to Lead GOP Field
With just six weeks until the Iowa caucuses, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Newt Gingrich has shot from 3% in the summer to the top of the GOP presidential field.
Gingrich leads nationally with 22%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Herman Cain at 16%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 8% and Michele Bachmann at 4%
Key takeaway: “Gingrich is the sixth candidate or potential candidate to lead the field this year, as some Republicans have sought an alternative to Romney, whose support has stayed steady at about 20%, give or take.”
The Case for Obama Stepping Aside
Pollsters Patrick Caddell and Doug Schoen write in the Wall Street Journal that — like Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson — President Obama should accept the reality that he cannot govern the nation and not run for re-election.
“He should abandon his candidacy for re-election in favor of a clear alternative, one capable not only of saving the Democratic Party, but more important, of governing effectively and in a way that preserves the most important of the president’s accomplishments. He should step aside for the one candidate who would become, by acclamation, the nominee of the Democratic Party: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.”
“Never before has there been such an obvious potential successor — one who has been a loyal and effective member of the president’s administration, who has the stature to take on the office, and who is the only leader capable of uniting the country around a bipartisan economic and foreign policy.”
Obama’s Solid Base
Chris Cillizza: “One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied with his actions (or inaction) on some of its priorities… But an examination of the polling data among key subgroups that constitute Obama’s base makes clear that he has as much support from them as any modern president seeking a second term.”
Said pollster Peter Hart: “There is one immutable fact about President Obama’s reelection chances: Nobody has a more solid 44% base than he does.”
“Obama’s base strength does not mean that he will face an easier-than-expected road to reelection. The country’s economy continues to sputter, large majorities of the public think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and Obama’s numbers among electorally critical independents are nowhere near where his team would like them to be. And, if Obama’s base is largely united, so, too, is the opposition; in an October Washington Post-ABC News poll, 46% of respondents said they would not even consider voting for him.”
How Gingrich Can Beat Romney
Marc Ambinder suggests Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire while Iowa will go to the strongest anti-Romney candidate, perhaps Newt Gingrich.
“So everything turns to South Carolina. If the person who wins Iowa…say…Newt…wins South Carolina, then the party’s conservative forces will seek to winnow the field quickly. There’s no question that everyone knows Newt’s vulnerabilities. But conservatives remember more indelibly, I think, the old Newt — the guy who invented the language that they use to run against Democrats…the guy who took on the Clintons in the 90s.. and this impression engenders considerable loyalty.”
“Suddenly, he gets money. Suddenly, Florida becomes a race again. And the conservative movement gets to see whether they can beat the establishment forces…losing the race in 2008 but vowing to fight another year. With the right conservative candidate, the Mitt Romney coronation is not inevitable. Still likely? Yes. Inevitable? No.”
Word of the Day
From the political dictionary: “smell of jet fuel”
Stabenow Leads in Michigan
A new EPIC/MRA poll in Michigan shows Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) leading likely challenger Pete Hoekstra (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 42%.
Meanwhile, in a head-to-head presidential matchup in the state, Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five points, 46% to 41%.
Why the Supercommittee Failed
Mike Allen: “The supercommittee last met Nov. 1 — three weeks ago! It was a public hearing featuring a history lesson, ‘Overview of Previous Debt Proposals,’ with Alan Simpson, Erskine Bowles, Pete Domenici and Alice Rivlin. The last PRIVATE meeting was Oct. 26. You might as well stop reading right there: The 12 members (6 House, 6 Senate; 6 R, 6 D) were never going to strike a bargain, grand or otherwise, if they weren’t talking to each other. Yes, we get that real deal-making occurs in small groups. But there never WAS a functioning supercommittee: There was Republican posturing and Democratic posturing, with some side conversations across the aisle.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I’m ashamed.”
— Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), in a Face the Nation interview, on how Congress has conducted its business.
Diplomacy and Diamonds
Just published: Diplomacy and Diamonds: My Wars from the Ballroom to the Battlefield by Joanne King Herring.
Washington Post: “She is perhaps best known as the financial backer of Congressman Charlie Wilson and his personal crusade on behalf of the mujahideen against the occupying Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s. And that’s one of her less flamboyant accomplishments.”
Gingrich Storms Into Lead Nationally
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Herman Cain at 12% and Rick Perry at 10%.
Quote of the Day
“As long as we have some Republican lawmakers who feel more enthralled
with a pledge they took to a Republican lobbyist than they do to a
pledge to the country to solve the problems, this is going to be hard to
do.”
— Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), in an interview with CNN, on Grover Norquist’s anti-tax pledge blocking compromise among the debt supercommittee members.
Supercommittee to Admit Defeat
“The congressional committee tasked with reducing the federal deficit is poised to admit defeat as soon as Monday, and its unfinished business will set up a year-end battle over emergency jobless benefits and an expiring payroll tax holiday,” the Washington Post reports.
“The policy battle comes as the parties are gearing up for a high-stakes election season dominated by economic concerns, with both the White House and Congress in play. The political pressure that has helped keep the 12-member supercommittee from compromising on hot-button issues such as taxes is sure to grow more intense.”
Romney Gears Up to Win Iowa
Mitt Romney, “who has been cautiously calibrating expectations about his chances in a state full of social conservatives, is now playing to win the Iowa caucuses,” the New York Times reports.
“Television commercials are on the way, volunteers are arriving and a stealth operation is ready to burst into view in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, the first Republican nominating contest, on Jan. 3.”
“The escalation of his effort in Iowa, along with a more aggressive schedule in New Hampshire and an expanding presence in South Carolina, is the strongest indication yet that Mr. Romney is shifting from a defensive, make-no-mistakes crouch to an assertive offensive strategy. If he can take command in the three early-voting states, he could make the nominating battle a swift one.”
