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Dead Heat in Michigan

February 20, 2012 at 4:18 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new We Ask America poll in Michigan finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied in the GOP presidential race at 29% each. They are followed by Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Santorum’s Social Issues Box

February 20, 2012 at 4:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Hill
notes that Rick Santorum has been “unable or unwilling to escape
controversies over social issues” amid his rising prospects in the
Republican presidential nomination race.

“Santorum’s response –
welcoming the line of questions – reveals a side of the senator’s
personality that is unwilling to shy away from topics that other
national politicians fear would alienate centrist swing
voters… There’s logic to Santorum’s penchant for delving into such
controversies. Doing so has established his bona fides with conservative
voters, signaling that he is willing to stand up for core beliefs and
principles even when they’re unpopular. Relative to Mitt Romney – who
has struggled to shed the image of an opportunist willing to shift his
positions to suit the popular mood – that sort of conviction has proven
attractive to GOP primary voters.”

Same Old Redistricting Game

February 20, 2012 at 3:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

John Avlon looks at the latest round of gerrymandering and notes “the weasel-y-ness is worse than ever, with outrages and embarrassments covered mostly by local media.”

“Legislators from both parties will
continue to get away with the maximum amount of self-dealing and
self-interest they can get away with – unless they feel it is no longer
in their self-interest because of citizen pressure. That’s why these
local tales of rigging the system of redistricting should matter to you,
no matter what state you live in.”


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Obama’s Hard Edge

February 20, 2012 at 8:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The New York Times profiles White House political adviser David Plouffe.

“Fiercely data-driven, Mr. Plouffe revels in the company of spreadsheets, lists, maps and the Baseball Almanac. Fiercely competitive, he once decked a colleague in a friendly touch football game for taunting him. Fiercely unsentimental, he expends zero amazement over his career climb from selling knives door to door to a first-among-equals status in the White House’s closed circle.”

“People inside Mr. Obama’s political apparatus say Mr. Plouffe is most in tune with the President’s thinking in terms of his unsparing focus on the middle class and his abandonment of the bipartisan bridge-building efforts that have mostly failed through his first term… Mr. Plouffe approaches campaigns with a tribal sense of good-vs.-evil, rarely seeing much humanity in opponents.”

Romney’s Last Argument

February 20, 2012 at 8:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Walter Shapiro: “The Mitt Romney crisis transcends the seven straight national polls showing Rick Santorum in the lead. It goes beyond the embarrassing reality that the son of an auto executive and two-term governor has been behind in every Michigan poll conducted since Groundhog’s Day. Even more devastating for Romney is that elite Republicans have begun to conclude that he cannot, if nominated, beat Barack Obama. About the only argument that still works for Romney among GOP insiders is that he would be less of a drag on the ticket than the strident Santorum or the mercurial Newt Gingrich.”

“With the exception of Mike Dukakis (what is it about governors of Massachusetts?), it is impossible to recall a top-tier presidential contender who aroused such little passion among the voters.”

Santorum Holds Huge Lead in Texas

February 20, 2012 at 8:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows Rick Santorum has a commanding lead in the Republican presidential race with 45%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 18%, Mitt Romney at 16% and Ron Paul at 14%.

Texas still doesn’t have all of its congressional and legislative maps in place so May 29 appears to be the earliest possible primary date.

Michigan Primary Tightens

February 20, 2012 at 7:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by just four points in the GOP presidential race, 37% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Key finding: “The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.”

Trump Hits Airwaves for Romney

February 20, 2012 at 7:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

With just over a week to go before the Michigan primary, ABC News reports Mitt Romney “is enlisting the help of one of his highest-wattage surrogates: Donald Trump.”

“The real estate mogul is preparing to spread his pro-Romney, anti-Rick Santorum message in a series of radio interviews this week on local stations from Traverse City to Detroit.”

Gingrich Admits He Must Win Georgia

February 20, 2012 at 7:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Newt Gingrich conceded that losing his home state of Georgia in the Super Tuesday primaries on March 6 would “badly” weaken his candidacy, CNN reports.

However, Gingrich stopped short of saying he would drop out if he fails to win Georgia.

Said Gingrich: “Given the chaos of this race, I’m not willing to say anything. I think it’s extraordinarily important to win your home state.”

Virginia U.S. Senate Race Still Close

February 20, 2012 at 7:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Christopher Newport University poll in Virginia shows George Allen (R) edging Tim Kaine (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 40%.

Chick Nonfiction?

February 19, 2012 at 4:24 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Douglas Brinkley reviews The Obamas by Jodi Kantor:

“The difference when a head of state’s spouse performs an advisory role is that both the content and its consequences resonate through a lot more than one household. And that’s the point of Jodi Kantor’s new book, The Obamas. Call it chick nonfiction, if you will; this book is not about politics,
it’s about marriage, or at least one marriage, and a notably successful
one at that.”

Santorum Expands Lead Over Romney

February 19, 2012 at 4:14 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by eight points nationally in the Gallup tracking poll, 36% to 28%, with Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%.

Payroll Tax Deal Pushes U.S. Closer to Debt Ceiling

February 19, 2012 at 1:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The payroll tax extension that Congress passed last week “accelerated the timeline for another battle over the debt ceiling,” The Hill reports.

“The debt-ceiling agreement lawmakers approved in August established a cooling-off period, with enough borrowing to see the country through until after the November election. But a sequel to the debt-ceiling drama could be coming to Washington sooner than planned, thanks to the billions of dollars in deficit spending in the payroll tax agreement.”

Starbucks CEO Not Interested in Running

February 19, 2012 at 1:27 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, who has been floated as a possible presidential candidate for a third-party run, said that he had “no interest in public office,” reports National Journal.

First Look at Game Change

February 19, 2012 at 12:30 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Variety previews the movie Game Change, premiering on March 10, based on the best-selling book about the 2008 campaign by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin,

The authors “have a cameo, as reporters hounding Schmidt during the Republican National Convention. Schmidt is complaining about the unfair, personal media coverage of Palin in the initial days of the St. Paul convention, and even points out that he’s been asked the ‘shameful’ question of when the Alaska governor’s fluid leaked during her pregnancy. Heilemann then shoots back, ‘So when did it start leaking?'”

Obama Trails GOP Rivals in Iowa

February 18, 2012 at 10:23 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows President Obama trails three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups if the election were held today.

The Republican with the biggest lead: Ron Paul, who would defeat Obama by 7 percentage points, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads Obama 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%.The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%.

“Iowa is considered a swing state in the general election, critical to Obama’s re-election or victory by the Republican nominee.”

Arizona Republican Denies Threatening to Deport Ex-Lover

February 18, 2012 at 4:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Paul Babeu (R), an Arizona county sheriff and congressional candidate — “who became the face of Arizona border security nationally after he started stridently opposing illegal immigration — threatened his Mexican ex-lover with deportation when the man refused to promise never to disclose their years-long relationship,” the Phoenix New Times reports.

Babeu told the Arizona Republic the allegations are “completely false” and that the only information mentioned in the article that’s true is “I’m gay.”

Quote of the Day

February 18, 2012 at 4:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The president has reached a new low in this country’s history of
oppressing religious freedom that we have never seen before. If he
doesn’t want to call his imposition of his values a theology that’s
fine, but it is an imposition of his values over a church who has very
clear theological reasons for opposing what the Obama administration is
forcing on them.”

— Rick Santorum, quoted by NBC News, saying President Obama preaches “some phony ideal, some phony theology.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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