A new Middle Tennessee State University poll shows Rick Santorum way ahead in next week’s Tennessee GOP primary with 40%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%.

First Read: “The biggest impact of Romney’s narrow victory in Michigan: It silences the talk of a white knight riding to the GOP’s rescue. While such an outcome might not have occurred even if Romney lost — was a Christie/Daniels/Jeb Bush really going to jump in this late in the game? — last night pretty much closed the door on that kind of speculation, even if Romney struggles next week on Super Tuesday (which is entirely possible).”

But Michelle Cottle disagrees, saying “don’t look for the dream to die anytime soon. Mitt Romney’s win wasn’t pretty and will continue to fuel concerns that the GOP electorate, despite its visceral hatred of Obama, won’t be as fired up as it needs to be to kick ass in November.”

Steve Kornacki notes Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R-ME) retirement was a huge gift to Democrats.

“A pickup in Maine would alter the playing field nationally, where Democrats can survive a net loss of three seats and still retain control of the chamber (if Obama is reelected, with Vice President Joe Biden breaking a 50-50 tie). The party is facing potential losses in Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico and elsewhere, with only two obvious pickup targets (Massachusetts and Nevada) — until now. If there is a second term for the Obama White House, Snowe may end up being a lot more helpful to it than she was in the first term.”

First Read says Snowe’s exit “gives Democrats a better than 50%-50% chance of holding the Senate in November. If Democrats win in Maine and Massachusetts, then they’ve moved the bar to Republicans needing to win five seats (if Obama loses) and six (if he wins). We can see how Republicans get to four (North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, and Missouri). And we can see how they maybe get to five (adding Virginia or Wisconsin or Ohio). But six? That would mean that Republicans would need to win in a New Mexico or a Florida or a Michigan.”

Sean Trende: “We’re finally close enough to Super Tuesday to get a sense of how the overall delegate count might work out in the GOP primary. The end result: Assuming that none of the four candidates drops out of the race, it looks increasingly as if no one will be able to claim a majority of the delegates. The candidate with the best chance is Mitt Romney, but he probably wouldn’t be able to wrap up the nomination until May or even June. The other candidates will probably have to hope for a brokered convention.”

Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) announced on the House floor that he will not seek re-election, The Hill reports.

Said Dreier: “We all know that this institution has an abysmally low approval rating, and the American people are asking for change in Congress, and so I’m announcing today that I will leave the Congress at the end of this year.”

Los Angeles Times: “Dreier is the sixth California House member to announce his
retirement when his term expires, further shaking up a delegation that
has built up clout on Capitol Hill because of its stability over the
years.”

Maine GOP strategist Matthew Gagnon says Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R-ME) “reason for taking a pass on re-election, especially when she was so enthusiastically running up to this point, and especially as close to the filing deadline as this is, are mysterious. As I said before, this kind of thing does not happen in politics.”

“I am told her own staff was unaware of this decision until just hours before the statement went out — just long enough to actually work on the release and send it out.”

Maggie Haberman: “This is a bit of a problem for a movement candidate: Ron Paul, whose strategy has been to amass delegates through a caucus-focused strategy, has become essentially an afterthought because of the way he is now viewed.”

“Theories abound as to what’s driving this. Among them: Paul wants his voice heard at the convention; he’s trying to get his son Rand on the ticket; he’s working to ensure Rand’s future in 2016. Whatever the reason, the narrative is taking root that Paul is essentially in this to take down Romney’s rivals, as he airs negative ads against them and siphons off votes. His aides vigorously deny this, but the claim is being repeated enough that it has overshadows the role Paul once played in the race.”

Interestingly, Paul goes on the air today with a new ad in Washington state that hits all three of his rivals.

Peter Hamby notes “the mechanics of the 2012 Republican race are beginning to resemble those of the 2008 Democratic nomination fight, a grind-it-out battle for delegates that could last through well into the spring.”

“Romney continues to lead his foes in the delegate hunt, adding at least three dozen to his total after beating Rick Santorum in Michigan and Arizona. But with 437 delegates on the table next Tuesday, and with most of them allocated according to each candidate’s share of the vote, all four of the GOP contenders are certain to boost their delegate counts, giving everyone in the field a rationale, however thin, to move forward.”

BuzzFeed: “Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign has far-outraised his opponents, but that doesn’t mean he’s flush with money. With a sky-high burn rate, and running out of rich donors to tap, Romney made an appeal for small-dollar donors tonight after winning the Michigan and Arizona primaries — his first direct appeal for money at a non-fundraising event in recent memory.”

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal says some Romney allies say he “may have to write a check from his own personal fortune to tide over his campaign.”

Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) “sounded and acted like a U.S. Senate candidate Tuesday, returning to his home state of Nebraska and attending a high school basketball game,” the Omaha World Herald reports.

Kerrey said he “expected to make an announcement today on whether he would run for Senate. However, he quickly noted with a laugh that he had until Thursday to make a final decision.”

“This is like watching a Greek tragedy. It’s the negative campaigning and the increasingly personal attacks… it should have stopped long ago. Any utility from the debates has been exhausted, and now it’s just exchanging cheap shots and personal shots followed by super PAC attacks.”

— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by the Boston Herald, on the state of the Republican presidential race.

Mitt Romney “fought back a vigorous challenge from Rick Santorum in Michigan on Tuesday, narrowly carrying his native state, and won the Arizona primary in a pair of contests that reasserted his control over the Republican presidential race as it advances to critical Super Tuesday contests next week,” the New York Times reports.

“His victory over Mr. Santorum here in Michigan was far from commanding, but it was most likely sufficient to dampen the rising clamor from across the Republican Party about his ability to win over conservatives and connect with voters. The tussle with Mr. Santorum highlighted ample concerns about Mr. Romney, but his win spared his campaign from deep turmoil.”

Politico: “By winning in Michigan and cruising in Arizona, the establishment darling has reasserted his status as the Republican favorite. It may be a slower and messier process than Romney and his aides would prefer, but the former Massachusetts governor still looks on track to eventually capture the GOP nomination.”

Chris Cillizza: “But, winning is winning. And when Romney needed to win — a loss in Michigan would have crippled his campaign beyond repair (or close to it) — he did. ”

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds that with Gov. Chris Christie (R) as his running mate, Mitt Romney cuts into President Obama’s lead in New Jersey, but still falls short, trailing 49% to 43%.

Without Christie, Romney trails Obama 49% to 39%.

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Sen. Robert Menendez (D) leads state Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R), his virtually unknown challenger, 49% to 34%.

Key finding: Menendez gets a 48% to 31% job approval rating, his best score ever, and voters say 48% to 34% that he deserves to be reelected, also his best score ever.

Polls are now closed across most of Michigan, although several voting districts will be open until 9 pm ET.

Preliminary results should be available soon.

As expected, Mitt Romney wins the Arizona primary. No networks are willing to make a projection in Michigan.

First Read: “Despite the — warranted — focus on Michigan over Arizona, Romney will actually win more delegates out of Arizona than Michigan, no matter the outcome, because Michigan is winner-take-all by congressional district.”

Bettors on Intrade now give Romney a 92% chance of winning in Michigan.

Exit polls show that 9% of Michigan primary voters self-identified as Democrats. Among these voters, Santorum won 53% while Romney won 17%.

Nearly every early indicator in Michigan is showing Romney doing better than expected. Most analysts — including Karl Rove, Joe Trippi and Mike Murphy — now think Romney will ultimately win.

No network is willing to call the race for Romney as of 10 pm ET, but it’s essentially over.

At 10:13 pm ET, NBC News projected Romney will win the Michigan primary.

National Review has a new poll conducted today in Michigan — including those who have voted early, have voted today, or who told the pollster they will be voting by the end of the day — shows the primary is still a toss up with Romney at 39% and Santorum at 38%, with a 5% margin of error.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will not run for re-election, the Portland Press Herald reports.

Said Snowe: “After an extraordinary amount of reflection and consideration, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate.”