New research from the Federal Reserve concludes that the European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession, with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to Reuters.
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You Are Not So Smart
Just out: You Are Not So Smart by David McRaney.
One finding with particular relevance to politics: “Our brains resist new ideas, instead paying attention only to findings that reinforce our preconceived notions.”
Gingrich Soars as Cain Drops
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll finds Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential field, but just barely.
Romney leads with 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 22%, Herman Cain at 14%, Rick Perry at 12%, Ron Paul at 8% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.
Key finding: While Romney’s support has pretty much stayed the same, Gingrich has seen his support jump 14 points since last month.
2012 Ad War: Crossroads GPS Previews the Fall Campaign
This post is part of our guest series from Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.
As the 2012 ad war heats up, political action committees are starting to get in on the action. Case in point, Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS just announced a major ad buy targeting President Obama in several key battleground states.
Looking past the GOP primaries to a tough general election, the ad, entitled The Two Presidents, knocks Obama on tax policy. Unlike many of the campaign ads we’ve highlighted to date — which are produced primarily to garner free media coverage — this is a major buy. Crossroads is spending $2.6 million to run the ad in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Colorado — all states the president carried in 2008.
Gingrich Takes the Lead Nationally
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Newt Gingrich taking the lead in the GOP presidential race.
Gingrich leads with 28%, followed by Herman Cain at 25% and Mitt Romney at 18%.
The rest of the field: Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.
Key findings: “Gingrich’s lead caps an amazing comeback he’s made over the last 5
months. In June his favorability nationally with Republican voters
plummeted all the way to 36/49. Now he’s at 68/23, representing a 58
point improvement in his spread since then. As recently as August
Gingrich was mired in single digits at 7%, and even in September he was
at just 10%. He’s climbed 18 points in less than 2 months.”
Cain Leads in Iowa, Gingrich Pulls Into Second
A new survey from The Polling Company (R) in Iowa finds Herman Cain leading the GOP presidential field with 20%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 19%, Mitt Romney at 14% and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 10%.
All other candidates were under 5% with another 13% of likely voters still undecided.
Bachus Traded While Attending Secret Meetings
The 60 Minutes report last night on insider trading by lawmakers and their staffs was inspired by a new book out this week, Throw Them All Out, written by conservative activist Peter Schweizer.
Dave Weigel notes one of the “ugliest revelations” in the book is the degree to which Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), then ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, bet against the stock market as it collapsed in 2008.
Schweizer details “no less than forty options trades” in Bachus’s records from July 2008 to November 2008 as he sat in secretive meetings with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke — Blackberries and phones were confiscated to avoid leaks — to discuss the state of the financial markets. The trades “made him wealthier” as “almost nobody else had the information he had.”
And it’s all perfectly legal since Congress is exempt from insider trading laws.
Trump Endorsement Coming Soon
Donald Trump told Fox News he would make an endorsement in the presidential race very soon.
Said Trump: “Within a month probably sounds good — maybe a little bit more than that, but I’ve got a good, good sight on everybody. I have a lot of respect for a lot of them. We have some good people.”
Supreme Court to Hear Health Care Challenge
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a challenge to President Obama’s sweeping health care reform law, CNN reports.
Oral arguments will likely be held in late February or March, with a ruling by June.
SCOTUS Blog has the details.
Can Perry Still Win?
Despite Rick Perry’s string of poor debate performances and sinking poll numbers, Jay Newton-Small thinks it would be foolish to count him out just yet.
“In fact, there is still a path for him to win… Money. Perry’s campaign on Friday announced a $1 million ad buy on Fox News… Despite the defection of some bundlers, Perry remains a fundraising powerhouse who will be able to afford investments other candidates can’t… If he backs out now, it’s so much worse. You can’t run for president and then not give it your all. If Perry walks away now, before every last option is exhausted, he’ll bear the quitter label for the rest of his life… Perry is improving: he’s more comfortable on stage, more confident. Maybe he knows he’s now got nothing to lose. His brain-freeze comedy tour was successful and if he can start really engaging and delivering, he might just catch a wave… Perry still has more endorsements than anyone else but Romney, including some in key states like South Carolina. Plus, he has the strong backing of his wife and family… If Gingrich gets knocked off, there’s time for one, maybe two more waves before the first voting begins. Perry still has a window to the nomination if he can win Iowa and ride that momentum through South Carolina and into Florida.”
That said, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has Perry fading to just 4% support nationally among Republican voters.
Obama Campaign Seeks Clinton’s Help
President Obama’s top political operatives met with Bill Clinton to ask for his help on how to win re-election, Joe Conason reports.
“As the meeting began, the Obama aides laid out their sense of the political landscape, their polling data on attitudes among voters in the Democratic base and independents who might be truly undecided, the shaping of their message and their campaign’s organizational structure across the country… Much of the presentation dealt with battleground states such as North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, and Arizona, where Obama prevailed four years ago but faces more difficult odds next year.”
“Having absorbed all this information, Clinton peppered the Obama operatives with dozens of probing questions and specific suggestions, not only concerning their strategy and message but how to handle the leading Republican candidates, too. Economic conditions and how to address them dominated the discussion. What most interested the Obama team were Clinton’s insights on heartland voting blocs that remain in the political middle: Not the Republican-leaning independents who always end up voting for the GOP nominee, but the truly uncommitted who largely ended up supporting Obama in 2008.”
Press Conference to Back Cain Accuser
The Note: “Though the pace of the new stories about it has dropped off, Gloria Allred, the lawyer for one of the accusers, plans to hold a press conference in Louisiana this afternoon with the former boyfriend of Sharon Bialek, who recently came forward with her story about Cain’s misconduct.”
Quote of the Day
“The more toppings a man has on his pizza, I believe the more manly he is.”
— Herman Cain, in a GQ interview.
More Similar Than Different?
Al Hunt notes the similarities between President Obama and Mitt Romney:
“They are super smart men, who quickly absorb data, policy wonks able to analyze complicated choices. Also, in a business that places a premium on personal and political relations, neither relishes that sort of camaraderie or cajoling; they both appear aloof and spend little quality time with fellow politicians.”
“There are profound differences between these two likely 2012 nominees… Yet in style and brain power there are surprising similarities. They both are graduates of Harvard Law School… Rhetoric aside, both are more comfortable with compromise and consensus than confrontation.”
Alexander Burns: “It’s a weird quirk of the political marketplace that in a
political environment as unstable and change-hungry as this one, the
opposition party appears set to put forward a nominee who looks in many
respects like a center-right version of the incumbent.”
Obama Still Leads His GOP Rivals
A new Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll shows that against a generic, unnamed Republican challenger, President Obama tied 43 to 43.
“But when voters were pushed to pick between Obama and the GOP front-runner, Mitt Romney, the president took a 6-percentage-point lead. Obama beat Herman Cain by 9 percentage points in the survey, conducted last week as new revelations about sexual harassment allegations against the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO continued to trickle out.”
Notes Democratic pollster Celinda Lake: “Generic Republicans never flip-flopped on a position and never had any problems in their personal life. When it’s a choice, we’re in a much, much stronger position.”
Obama’s Campaign Inner Circle Grows Stronger
Edward Luce notes that President Obama is an exception in recent administrations as his campaign inner circle “is actually strengthening its grip on the White House. The group, which most prominently includes Valerie Jarrett, the longstanding Chicago friend and mentor to the Obamas; David Plouffe, the 2008 campaign manager; and David Axelrod, who is now shepherding Mr Obama’s re-election campaign from Chicago, last week clipped the wings of Bill Daley, the president’s hapless chief of staff.”
Also interesting: “On his way out, Rahm Emanuel warned Mr Daley that he would be just one among four de facto chiefs of staff, each with independent access to Mr Obama. That has proved accurate.”
Chelsea Clinton Hired by NBC News
NBC will announce that it has hired Chelsea Clinton to become a full-time special correspondent for NBC News, the New York Times reports.
Romney, Gingrich Move Up Nationally
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows the “week of turmoil” in the race for the Republican presidential race has benefited Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich while hurting Rick Perry and Herman Cain.
Romney leads the race with 32%, followed by Cain at 27%, Gingrich at 22%, Paul at 9%, Perry at 4%, Bachmann at 2%, Santorum at 2% and Hunstman at 1%.
