Nate Silver: “In the early stages of general election campaigns, a president’s approval ratings have often been at least as accurate a guide to his eventual performance as the head-to-head numbers. Thus, for at least the next couple of months, I would pay as much attention to Mr. Obama’s approval ratings as his head-to-head polls against Mr. Romney.”
North Carolina Democrat Steps Down Amid Sex Claims
Jay Parmley, the executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party, resigned “as questions mounted about a secret agreement to pay a former staffer to keep quiet about sexual harassment allegations,” the Raleigh News & Observer reports.
He denied harassing any employee and blamed right-wing political enemies for “spreading a false and misleading story.”
He added, “Even though I have not done anything wrong, it is clear to me that I need to move on.”
Romney Family Dog Loved Trips on Top of Car
Ann Romney told ABC News that Seamus, the family’s Irish setter, “loved” their vacation trips even though he was in a crate strapped to the top of a station wagon.
Said Mrs. Romney: “The dog loved it. He would see that crate and, you know, he would, like, go crazy because he was going with us on vacation. It was to me a kinder thing to bring him along than to leave him in the kennel for two weeks.”
Why Ann Romney Stayed Home
McKay Coppins: “The religious dynamic of the Romneys’ Leave It To Beaver lifestyle has been largely lost on the partisans making hay out of the latest flare-up in the mommy wars, which was sparked by a Democratic strategist charging that Ann ‘has never actually worked a day in her life.’ But while much of the debate has centered on class — with liberals casting full-time motherhood as a luxury for the rich, and conservatives hoping working-class women will identify with her — the fact is that even if Mitt were a middle-class schoolteacher, there’s a good chance Ann still would have foregone a career.”
“That’s because for many Latter-day Saint women, staying at home to raise children is less a lifestyle choice than religious one — a divinely-appreciated sacrifice that brings with it blessings, empowerment, and spiritual prestige.”
Romney Faces Record Shortfall in Popularity
A new ABC News-Washington Post poll finds Mitt Romney has emerged from the Republican primary season with the weakest favorability rating on record for a presumptive presidential nominee since 1984, trailing President Obama in personal popularity by 21 percentage points.
Romney is the first likely nominee to be underwater – seen more unfavorably than favorably – in eight presidential primary seasons across the past 28 years.
Gender Gap Gives Obama Lead Over Romney
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll finds President Obama holds a nine-point lead over Mitt Romney, 52% to 43%.
The survey indicates women voters back Obama over Romney by 16 points, 55% to 39%, virtually unchanged from an 18-point advantage among women for the president in CNN polling last month.
Tracking Poll Shows Tight Presidential Race
The Gallup daily tracking poll of the presidential election kicks off with Mitt Romney leading President Obama 47% to 45% among registered voters nationally.
Both Obama and Romney are supported by 90% of their respective partisans, but independents break for Romney 45% to 39%.
Congressional Retirements Highest Since 1996
Rep. Ed Towns’ (D-NY) retirement announcement “makes him the 25th House retirement of this cycle. Add in the 10 Senate retirements, and you’ve got the most combined retirements since 1996, when Democratic lawmakers retired in droves after the Republican Revolution of 1994 (and many Republicans joined them),” The Fix reports.
“Add in another 15 House members running for other/higher office, and the next Congress is already promising to include plenty of turnover — with 50 out of 535 members (nearly 10 percent) already leaving their seats.”
That said, filing deadlines “have passed in 30 of the 50 states so far, meaning there may not be that many more retirements to come.”
Walker Leads in Recall Election
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading each of his potential Democratic challengers in a recall election.
Walker leads Tom Barrett (D) 50% to 45% and tops Kathleen Falk (D) 50% to 43%.
New Ad Hits Romney’s Wealth
Priorities USA Action, the pro-Obama super PAC, released a new television ad in Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Iowa today, Yahoo News reports.
The ad focuses on Mitt Romney’s effective tax rate features the now infamous picture of Romney and his Bain Capital colleagues with money stuffed into their suits.
Is the Presidential Election Ever a Referendum?
Joe Klein: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a presidential election that was a pure referendum, and every presidential election I’ve covered involved a choice. There are good reasons for this.”
“The presidency is our most intimate office. The President lives in our homes for four years. The media spend considerable amounts of time, sometimes too much, telling us who these people are. And then in October we get to see two, occasionally three, men — only men, sadly, so far — on the stage and we decide which one we want to invite into our homes for the next four years. Barring a national disaster, issues are secondary — although an impression of how you might handle those issues is important.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Angus King, in my view, is like electoral comfort food. We know him as a little bit bland, a smart man and a thinker. Sending mac ‘n cheese down to Washington is not good enough.”
— Maine U.S. Senate candidate John Hinck (D), quoted by the Bangor Daily News at a Democratic primary forum, with a memorable attack on likely independent candidate Angus King.
Frank Wanted Obama to Back Off Health Care
Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) told New York magazine he urged President Obama not to press for health care reform in 2010 after Democrats lost their 60-seat majority.
Said Frank: “I think we paid a terrible price for healthcare. I would not have pushed it as hard. As a matter of fact, after Scott Brown won, I suggested going back. I would have started with financial reform, but certainly not healthcare.”
Frank said Obama made the same mistake Bill Clinton did in 1993 by underestimating the concerns of people who already had healthcare coverage.
Haley’s Memoir Under Fire
Politicians from both major parties say South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s (R) new memoir, Can’t Is Not An Option, “is untruthful or twists many events,” the Columbia State reports.
“Members of Haley’s own Republican Party — including the speaker of the S.C. House and a former lieutenant governor — say allegations against them are ‘absolutely not true’ and ‘not true at all.’ Democrats, including Haley’s 2010 opponent in the governor’s race, describe the book as ‘fiction.'”
Said one Democratic lawmaker: “This lady just makes stuff up.”
Romney Picks Head of Veep Search
Mitt Romney told ABC News he has put his longtime adviser Beth Myers in charge of the vice presidential vetting process.
Said Romney: “I have selected someone who has been an counselor of mine for a number of years, Beth Myers, she was my Chief of Staff when I was governor. I’ve asked her to be the person who oversees the process of the vice presidential selection and vetting an analysis and so she’s begun that process and is putting together the kinds of things you need to do to vet potential candidates.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I’m not going to be the vice president. I’m not.”
— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), quoted by the Los Angeles Times.
Romney Said Welfare Moms Need “Dignity of Work”
Mitt Romney last week declared that “all moms are working moms,” but the Boston Globe notes “he insisted as recently as January that women on welfare need to get jobs, even if they have young children.”
Said Romney: “Even if you have a child two years of age, you need to go to work. And people said, ‘Well that’s heartless,’ and I said ‘No, no, I’m willing to spend more giving daycare to allow those parents to go back to work. It’ll cost the state more providing that daycare, but I want the individuals to have the dignity of work.'”
Gingrich Backer Turns Focus to House Races
Sheldon Adelson, the wealthy casino owner who backed Newt Gingrich’s presidential bid, has donated $5 million with his wife to a super PAC for House Republican candidates, National Journal reports.
“The financial infusion immediately makes the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is chaired by former GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, among the biggest players in the congressional landscape this year.”

