Stu Rothenberg:
“If the question is whether there is any evidence right now that
Democrats can retake the House next year (especially considering
historical trends and the number of swing districts), the answer has to
be no. This conclusion is based on the evidence now, and if the evidence
changes, so could my conclusion. Perhaps the best answer to the
question, from my point of view, is one that some will find
unsatisfactory: I don’t know. Ask me again in a year, and then a few
months after that, and then again in October 2014.”
Lincoln Unbound
Out in June: Lincoln Unbound: How an Ambitious Young Railsplitter Saved the American Dream — and How We Can Do It Again by Richard Lowry.
Last Act in the Budget Wars
David Hawkings: “April in Washington is supposed to be all about immigration and gun control, with potentially climactic moments on course for both. But those expectations will prove illusory in the first days after the House and Senate return from recess next week, when headlines will come from a couple of high-profile maneuvers in the budget wars.”
“The maneuvers will be largely meaningless, despite the headlines, but the consequences for the outcome could be immense, one way or the other.”
Donor Says He and Menendez Are Like Brothers
Salomon Melgen, the Florida political donor at the center of a criminal probe, told Bloomberg that he and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) are “like brothers” who spoke weekly, yet his companies never benefited and he broke no laws.
Said Melgen: “I don’t have any business interests at all that have been helped by any politicians.”
Super PAC Launches to Urge Clinton to Run
A new super PAC founded to urge Hillary Clinton to run for president officially launched today, “complete with a new Web site to help the group ramp up its online fundraising operation,” the Washington Post reports.
Quote of the Day
“No one has done more for gun ownership than Barack Obama. If you look at the number of people who have bought guns since he became president, he has been the most successful salesman for people having the right to bear arms in modern history.”
— Newt Gingrich, in an interview with Newsmax.
Mystery Man Behind Bachmann Probes
The Minneapolis Star Tribune runs a fascinating profile of Peter Waldron, the man behind a pair of campaign finance inquiries that have given Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) “more bad publicity than anything lobbed her way by the political left.”
“Close Bachmann associates write Waldron off as a loose cannon and disgruntled employee. But for Waldron, a former radio evangelist, his actions are consistent with his decades long mission to spread the word of God and follow his Christian precepts.”
Town Mandates Gun Ownership
The City Council in Nelson, Georgia voted unanimously to require every household to have a gun and ammunition, unless the residents of the household opt out, WXIA-TV reports.
Sanford Expected to Win Runoff Today
Roll Call:
“For a candidate known for one of the past decade’s most colossal
political mistakes, former Gov. Mark Sanford has run a nearly flawless
campaign for the 1st District. As a result, Sanford is on track to win
the Republican runoff and maintains a solid position in the special
election for the coastal, GOP-leaning district.”
First Read: “Following American politics can be fascinating… You can’t make this up.”
Cruz Will Speak in South Carolina
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will be the keynote speaker at the South Carolina Republican Party’s Silver Elephant Celebration on May 3, The State reports.
Cruz is “widely considered to be a presidential candidate in 2016. His speech in South Carolina — which holds the crucial first in the South presidential primaries — will only intensify that speculation.”
Lawmaker Seeks to End Senate Primaries
Tennessee state Sen. Frank Niceley (R) introduced a bill to give Tennessee lawmakers the power to select nominees to the U.S. Senate, the AP reports.
“Under the bill, primary elections would be replaced with caucus votes in the General Assembly… the measure is aimed at returning to a system more closely resembling the era before the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution ended legislatures’ power to directly appoint senators in 1913.”
Charlie Cook: “You can hear bad ideas almost every day. But only occasionally do you hear a colossally bad, ill-conceived idea, one that leaves you wondering who dreamed it up.”
Pols Arrested in Plot to Rig New York City Mayoral Race
New York State Sen. Malcolm Smith (D) and City Councilman Dan Halloran (R) “were arrested this morning on charges they plotted to rig this year’s mayoral election through fraud and bribes,” the New York Post reports.
“The pols allegedly formed an alliance built on cash payments and fraud to get Smith — one of the state’s top Democrats — placed on the GOP mayoral ballot, sources said.”
Law enforcement sources tell NBC 4 New York that Smith “was allegedly involved in a plot to try to get onto this year’s GOP mayoral ballot by offering payments to Republican county chairmen.”
Rubio Slows Down Immigration Debate
Aides to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) told Roll Call that the senator “views a lengthy, traditional process that includes hearings, a healthy committee markup and an open floor debate during which senators can offer amendments as key to his ability to build and maintain conservative support for a comprehensive immigration rewrite. Rubio does not have a specific timetable in mind. But anything viewed as ‘rushed’ would violate promises he made to grass-roots conservatives and could cost his support, even if he is OK with the bill in principle.”
Edward Morrissey: “No one doubts that momentum has quickly developed for a deal on
comprehensive immigration reform and border security. But by rushing to
get a deal done and working behind closed doors, Congress is cravenly
trying to sneak reform through without a full hearing before the
American public.”
RNC Hires Juan Williams’ Son
The RNC has hired Raffi Williams, the 24 year old son of Fox News analyst Juan Williams, to sell “the GOP to youth outlets and the African American press as a Deputy Press Secretary,” BuzzFeed reports.
Clinton’s Campaign Starts in Virginia
“Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign begins this year in Virginia,” Politico reports.
“She hasn’t said anything about 2016, but Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 gubernatorial campaign is serving as a testing ground for Clinton’s clout, operatives and donors. In fact, McAuliffe and some of his top allies have suggested to big donors and consultants that supporting his campaign is a way to get in on the ground floor of Hillary 2016.”
Casey Now Supports Gay Marriage
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) told the Allentown Morning Call that he “had decided over time that the Defense of Marriage Act — the federal law that defines marriage as one man and one woman — should be repealed, and determined that such a belief could not be separate from the overall question of gay marriage.”
Said Casey: “I ultimately decided that to make a decision about DOMA was making a decision about marriage equality itself… It wasn’t until recently that I thought some point this year it will be reintroduced, so that was a question I was asking myself: Can you separate the vote on that [from] the ultimate question on marriage equality? There’s no way to do that.”
Connecticut Ready to Pass Toughest Gun Control in Nation
Connecticut lawmakers “said they had met the solemn challenge presented by the Sandy Hook school massacre with a bipartisan agreement for the nation’s strongest gun control bill,” the Hartford Courant reports.
“Easy passage of the legislative response to the Dec. 14 killings is expected in House and Senate votes scheduled for Wednesday, leaders of both the Democratic majority and Republican minority said after completing weeks of negotiations on the bill.”
New York Times: “It would require new state-issued eligibility certificates for the purchase of any rifle, shotgun or ammunition; mandate that offenders convicted of any of more than 40 weapons offenses register with the state; require universal background checks for the sale of all firearms; and substantially expand the state’s existing ban on assault weapons.”
Why There are So Many Debates
Howard Kurtz: “The reason there were so many Republican debates last year–and more than 20 involving Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the previous cycle–is that the candidates kept saying yes. And whose fault is that?”
