“If we want to replace Obamacare, we have to replace Obama.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico, commenting on the Supreme Court upholding President Obama’s health care law.
CNN Inaccurately Reports Health Care Decision
Daily Beast: “The Chicago Tribune once wrote ‘Dewey Defeats Truman,’ The New York Post claimed that Bush won the 2000 election before it was called and now CNN joins the ranks when it reported first — and inaccurately — that the Supreme Court ‘killed’ part of President Obama’s health-care legislation.”
Within minutes, the report was disputed, but Business Insider, Digital Trends and e.politics have screenshots to allow the error to live on in infamy.
GOP Renews Effort to Repeal Obamacare
The House will vote on a full repeal of President Obama’s health care law during the week of July 9, Politico reports.
The scheduling of another repeal vote came less than an hour after the Supreme Court upheld the health care mandate.
Said House Speaker John Boehner: “Today’s ruling underscores
the urgency of repealing this harmful law in its entirety.”
Decision Day at the Supreme Court
Politico: “The Supreme Court has upheld the health care reform law’s individual mandate in an opinion authored by Chief Justice John Roberts and joined in by Justices Elena Kagan, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor.”
It looks a like a big, big win for President Obama.
CNN: “Because the individual mandate has been upheld, and is essentially the
funding behind everything else, this can be seen in large part as a
major victory for President Obama.”
New York Times: “The decision was a striking victory for the president and Congressional Democrats, with a majority, including the conservative chief justice, John G. Roberts Jr., affirming the central legislative pillar of Mr. Obama’s term.”
Washington Post: “The potentially game-changing, election-year decision — a major victory for the White House less than five months before the November elections — will help redefine the power of the national government and affect the health-care choices of millions of Americans.”
Wonk Wire has more details on today’s decisions.
Does Romney Win Either Way on Court Decision?
Mitt Romney previewed on the forthcoming Supreme Court decision:
“If the Court upholds it — if they say, ‘look it passes the Constitution,’ it still is bad policy and that’ll mean if I’m elected we are going to repeal and replace it. If on the other hand the court strikes it down, they’ll be doing some of my work for me, I won’t have to repeal it, but I still will have to replace it, and I will.”
The Note: “In offering his assessment, Romney showed why the Supreme Court’s ruling this morning on the Affordable Care Act could be a win-win for him. If the Court decides the law is constitutional, Romney gets to continue to use is as major Bogeyman in his campaign to defeat Barack Obama. As he previewed last night, he will continue his calls to repeal “Obamacare” between now and November. If, on the other hand, the court rules against the administration, Romney not only gets to say, ‘I told you so,’ (as long as voters are willing to turn a blind eye to his record in Massachusetts) but also gets to put an even finer point on a favorite line from his stump speech — that the president has been a failure.”
Quote of the Day
“When we talk about Obama 20 or 30 years from now, this is likely to be the bill we talk about. If the Supreme Court takes away from Obama his biggest accomplishment, this is exactly what a president really fears. In some ways, it’s worse than not getting re-elected.”
— Presidential historian Julian Zelizer, quoted by Bloomberg, on the fate of President Obama’s health care law.
Obama Has Three Responses Ready
The Wall Street Journal notes President Obama “has been doing more than sitting back and waiting” for the Supreme Court’s health care decision. He has “three separate speeches prepared in anticipation of the ruling on his signature legislative achievement.”
“One of the speeches addresses a complete overturn of the law, while another is crafted as if the court strikes down the law’s individual mandate but upholds other provisions. The third speech, for if the court upholds the entire law, is more celebratory, according to this person.”
First Read: “We can report that if the U.S. Supreme Court finds the health-care law
constitutional, Obama will comment from the White House fairly soon
after the decision. But if it’s unconstitutional — or if the ruling is a
mixed bag — reaction from Obama could come later in the day.”
Wonk Wire: How to read a Supreme Court decision.
Obama Super PAC Continues Bain Assault
The pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action slams Mitt Romney’s business record with another tough ad, noting Bain Capital made money even on deals that saw companies go bankrupt.
Alex Burns: “Of the various groups involved in the Bain fight, Priorities has consistently been at the tip of the Democratic spear, spending more and airing more aggressive ads than the Obama campaign, and arguing publicly that the president’s allies should ignore anxiety among ‘elites’ about the Bain message.”
Close Race in Michigan, North Carolina and New Hampshire
A new round of NBC News-Marist polls shows President Obama and Mitt Romney running almost neck-and-neck in three key battleground states.
Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 43%
North Carolina: Obama 46%, Romney 44%
New Hampshire: Obama 45%, Romney 45%
Romney Fails to Get Retraction of Story
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Many expect an activist Supreme Court will strike down part or all of health reform. If they strike down the mandate, the Supreme Court will be paving the way to a single-payer system, or back to the old broken health care system.”
— Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), quoted by TPM.
What Will the Supreme Court Do?
Take our poll over at Wonk Wire.
If the Aliens Come
A new National Geographic survey finds that nearly 65% of Americans think President Obama would be better suited than Mitt Romney to handle an alien invasion.
Why the Health Care Law Might Be Upheld
Despite conventional wisdom that most or all of President Obama’s health care law will be overturned by the Supreme Court tomorrow, Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog disagrees:
“I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.”
“Most observers disagree. There are certainly good reasons to believe the Court will invalidate the mandate. Most important, at the oral argument, the questions of two critical Justices – Justice Kennedy and the Chief Justice – were on the whole critical of the mandate’s constitutionality. But in the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow.”
Hispanics Favor Obama but They’re Not Fired Up
A new NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo poll finds Hispanics overwhelmingly approve of President Obama’s recently announced immigration policy and give him a 40-point lead over Mitt Romney, 66% to 26%.
However, just 66% of Latinos put themselves in the “high-interest” category for the election. That’s much lower than the average of 80% found for all adults.
Americans Don’t Like Health Care Law or the Status Quo
A new ABC News-Washington Post poll finds just 36% express a favorable opinion of the health care law under Supreme Court review, but just 39% like the health care system as it currently stands.
“That means that while the intended fix is unpopular, so is the status quo – leaving the public still in search of solutions.”
What Happened to Populism?
Jonathan Martin notes that populism — “with its rowdy zeal to brawl against economic elites on behalf of the working classes” — was for decades the Democratic party’s defining cause but it’s now largely been abandoned.
“The recent convergence of setbacks on the left has activists and historians alike pondering anew how the modern Democratic Party has severed its connection to its own history — a tradition that many liberals wrongly imagined was about to spring back to life in the Obama years… These days, it’s possible to count on one hand the number of unapologetic populists in the U.S. Senate and, besides Elizabeth Warren, there are few more on the horizon.”
“For the fighting left, it is a frustrating puzzle. If ever there was a moment for a good, old-fashioned class war, at first blush it seems now should be the time. Yet even after the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, there are few politicians preaching, or practicing, the old-time religion.”
Why the Entire Health Care Law Might Be Thrown Out
Sean Trende: “The real Supreme Court news on Tuesday wasn’t the Arizona immigration decision or even the summary reversal of the Supreme Court of Montana in the ‘Citizens United 2’ case. It was that the chief justice of the United States didn’t write any of these opinions.”
“This is critically important, because we can now deduce with a reasonably high degree of certainty that John Roberts is writing the lead health care opinion. If we are right about this, then the law is in even deeper trouble that most observers imagined.”
However, Ed Whelan reads the tea leaves and concludes “the Court will invalidate the individual mandate by a 5-4 vote.”
Businessweek: Anthony Kennedy, the Justice everyone is watching.
