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Who Will Make the Debate Cut?

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First Read calculates the polling averages from the last five national polls to see who will get to participate in the first GOP presidential debate on August 6:

  1. Trump – 16.8%
  2. Bush – 14.8%
  3. Walker – 9.8%
  4. Rubio – 6.2%
  5. Huckabee – 6.2%
  6. Paul – 6.2%
  7. Carson – 5.8%
  8. Cruz – 5.2%
  9. Christie – 2.8%
  10. Perry – 2.4%

Not making the cut:

  1. Santorum – 1.8%
  2. Kasich – 1.6%
  3. Jindal – 1.4%
  4. Fiorina – 0.8%
  5. Graham – 0.2%

The Upshot also has a good look at who could make the first debate when you consider the polling sampling errors.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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