FiveThirtyEight gives Donald Trump a 46% chance of winning in Iowa and Hillary Clinton a 67% chance.
PredictWise gives Trump a 68% chance and Clinton a 73% chance.
Bing Predicts also picks Trump and Clinton.
Make your own predictions in the comments.
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“Fox Business Network host Larry Kudlow, whom Trump had considered naming to a senior economic policy role, informed the president-elect’s team that he doesn’t want to return to government,” the…
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) said that Tulsi Gabbard, Donald Trump’s controversial pick for director of national intelligence, “is likely a Russian asset,” the Daily Beast reports. Save to Favorites
“The vast majority of votes from this election have been counted, with just a few million ballots outstanding in western states. Total turnout is on track to fall just short…
Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA is ticking off some House Democrats for publicly opining on what her party did wrong in 2024, Axios reports. Said one senior Democrat: “She needs…
“President-elect Donald Trump announced on Friday that he had chosen Steven Cheung, his chief campaign spokesman, to be his White House communications director,” the New York Times reports. Save to…
“Donald Trump just announced that, in addition to formally naming Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota as his choice for interior secretary, he would appoint him as the chairman of…
“House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) won’t seek a waiver to retain his committee gavel, ending his six-year tenure as the panel’s top Republican,” Axios reports. “McCaul’s decision opens…
“John Thune didn’t have much time to celebrate his victory as the next Senate Republican leader,” Semafor reports. “Soon after he won the race to lead the chamber next year,…
“When President Joe Biden relinquishes power in January, some parts of his legacy will be secure, while others may be undone by President-elect Donald Trump and a new Republican-controlled Congress,”…
Elaine Godfrey: “Gaetz has always sought political relevance and power. Dismissed by many, including GOP colleagues, as a self-promoter, Gaetz’s superpower has been understanding far more clearly than they do…
John Burn-Murdoch: “In April 2022, Elon Musk tweeted a cartoon made by evolutionary biologist Colin Wright. The image shows a stick figure representing Wright, a self-described ‘center-left liberal’, becoming politically…
Franklin Foer: “The U.S. government is more than an array of marble buildings. It’s an aggregation of expertise, a collection of individuals who have inherited an ethos and a set…
Speaker Mike Johnson said on Friday that he does not think the House Ethics Committee report on allegations related to Matt Gaetz should be released and is “going to strongly…
“President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead powerful U.S. spy agencies has often seemed to embrace Washington’s adversaries and questioned key American intelligence judgments, raising alarm among veteran intelligence officials and…
“Donald Trump is considering tapping Fox Business Network host Larry Kudlow for a senior economic policy role in his administration, amid the president-elect’s mounting frustration with jockeying for top jobs,”…
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, the 2024 Republican Senate nominee in Michigan who lost his election last week by a razor-thin margin, met with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team regarding potentially…
“After Republicans did better than expected in winning the White House, the House and the Senate in 2004, President George W. Bush famously claimed a mandate,” the New York Times…
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Vladimir Putin of Russia spoke by phone for an hour on Friday, in a discussion that German authorities said centered on prospects for bringing…
Pod News: “Combining the average reach of each show they appeared on and then de-duplicating the results to account for listeners to more than one, the podcasts Trump appeared on…
“Muslims in Michigan began seeing pro-Israel ads this fall praising Vice President Kamala Harris for marrying a Jewish man and backing the Jewish state. Jews in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, saw ads…
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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