“The Iowa Democratic Party laid out a proposal Monday that would add a major change to its presidential caucuses, allowing for absentee voting by phone on six different days through virtual caucuses,” Politico reports.
“The proposed change… would allow Democrats to phone in absentee votes, rating their presidential preferences in a ranked choice style. Previously, only those who physically attended the Iowa caucuses could register their votes.”
Bloomberg: “Iowa’s well-established political infrastructure is at least partly frozen in place, awaiting clearer signals from a group one party veteran calls the ‘triumvirate’ — former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders and former Representative Beto O’Rourke, who gained a national attention with his ultimately unsuccessful bid last year to unseat Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.”
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) will propose a constitutional amendment restoring voting rights to convicted felons in a Condition of the State address that highlights “the beauty of grace” and second chances, the Des Moines Register reports.
Walter Shapiro: “In prior years, the problem with handicapping the Iowa caucuses has been predicting who would show up in person to vote on a cold mid-winter Monday night. The assumption has always been that — unlike a primary — Iowa measures the enthusiasm of activists.”
“But party rules will now allow for absentee balloting at the caucuses. Does that argue that the participation will be even greater than the 240,000 Iowa Democrats who powered insurgent Barack Obama to victory in 2008? Does that mean that the caucus electorate will not tilt as far left (Bernie Sanders almost beat Hillary Clinton in 2016) as in prior years?”
Another change: “Until now, due to a quirk in caucus procedures, a Democratic candidate needed 15-percent support in any precinct to have his or her votes tallied at all. But in 2020, Iowa caucus votes will be counted just like they are in primaries. As a result, it is easy to envision a cluttered Iowa result with, say, a half-dozen candidates clustered around 8 percent.”
Washington Post: “In ways quiet and loud, the Iowa presidential contest is already underway, 14 months before the caucuses mark the official start of the 2020 race. Candidates are lining up state directors, planning a flurry of trips in January and jump-starting the fight for an extraordinarily small slice of voters who play one of the most outsize roles in American politics.”
“The state Democratic Party is also on the verge of making a dramatic change to the caucus process by allowing absentee voters to participate for the first time, a move that could dramatically increase the number of voters involved and bring more moderates into a process that for decades has been dominated by the most dedicated liberal activists.”
A new Focus on Rural America poll in Iowa finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential field with 30%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 13%, Beto O’Rourke at 11%, Amy Klobuchar at 10% and Elizabeth Warren at 9%.
Key takeaway: Biden and Warren each saw seven-point drops in their performance since the poll was last in the field in September.
A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows President Trump has an 81% approval rating among registered Republicans in Iowa. Sixty-seven percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect Trump if the election were held today. Nineteen percent of Republicans say they would consider someone else, and 10% say they would definitely vote to elect someone else.
“Yet almost two-thirds — 63% — say Iowa should welcome challengers to Trump at the Republican Party of Iowa’s caucuses, scheduled for Feb. 3, 2020.”
A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom survey in Iowa finds Joe Biden beginning a potential presidential bid at 32%, more than a dozen points ahead of the second-place candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Outgoing Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke is in third place, at 11%, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 8% and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 5%.
“For more than a decade, Iowa legislators and staff members engaged in lewd and sexually aggressive behavior, creating a “toxic” environment and a “culture of secrets” at the state Capitol,” according to detailed court depositions reviewed by the Des Moines Register.
“The depositions, taken under oath by about two-dozen lawmakers and legislative staffers, comprise more than 1,000 pages of documents previously unreleased to the public. They were part of a landmark sexual harassment case that resulted in the state of Iowa paying a $1.75 million settlement last year.”
“The depositions detail more than 50 instances of inappropriate behavior that played out over years at the Capitol.”
Des Moines Register: “After months of false starts, President Trump will tell Iowans on Tuesday during a campaign rally in Council Bluffs that he’s opening the door to year-round access to gasoline with higher ethanol blends.”
“A senior White House official said Monday that Trump directed the Environmental Protection Agency to begin rule-making that allows for year-round use of gasoline with 15 percent ethanol or E15. The announcement sets off a review that could make E15 available to consumers as soon as next summer.”
According to a Des Moines Register analysis of data from Kantar Media, “more than 10,500 television ads related to the 2020 presidential elections have already aired on broadcast and cable channels across the United States this year. More than half of those ads have been on Iowa television channels.”
Washington Post: “Seizing on the fact that the 24-year-old suspect police arrested, Cristhian Bahena Rivera, is a Mexican national who authorities said was in the country illegally, many Republicans, from President Trump on down, used the death to advocate for harsher immigration laws.”
“But Tibbetts family members have struck a different note, even in the emotionally tense days following the confirmation of her death last week, although they have not directly rebuked the president. During the eulogy her father, Rob Tibbetts, gave during her funeral Sunday, he highlighted his positive feelings for the local Hispanic community.”
Said Tibbetts: “The Hispanic community are Iowans. They have the same values as Iowans.”
He even noted that during the nearly six weeks he spent in Iowa while authorities searched for his daughter, he ate at a number of Mexican restaurants: “As far as I’m concerned, they’re Iowans with better food.”
“Iowa is set once again to lead off the Democratic Party’s presidential nominating process with its first-in-the-nation caucuses: The Democratic National Committee on Saturday scheduled that party’s caucuses for Feb. 3, 2020,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“The Iowa Supreme Court on Friday blocked a law requiring a 72-hour waiting period before a woman can get an abortion,” the AP reports.
“The court ruled that the law violates the Iowa Constitution, siding with a lawsuit filed by Planned Parenthood of Iowa and the American Civil Liberties Union of Iowa. The organizations sued the state over the law approved by lawmakers last year.”
“Donald Trump’s trade war with China could cost Iowa farmers hundreds of millions of dollars and do untold damage to the state economy,” Politico reports.
“But you’d never know it from talking to Republicans at the recent state GOP convention here. When Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann asked more than 1,100 delegates a defining question — who was still behind President Donald Trump? — there was no hesitation. In an exuberant display of unity, more than 1,100 delegates sprang to their feet, whistling, cheering and offering prolonged applause.”
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) office said “she will sign legislation prohibiting nearly all abortions in Iowa after a fetal heartbeat is detected, making it the most restrictive abortion ban in the nation,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“The law, which goes into effect on July 1 if not stopped by courts, will require physicians to conduct an abdominal ultrasound to test for a fetal heartbeat on any woman seeking an abortion. If a heartbeat is detected, a physician cannot perform an abortion. Experts said a fetal heartbeat can be detected about six weeks into a pregnancy and often before a woman realizes she’s pregnant.”
Associated Press: “Similar legislation passed in other states didn’t go into effect after they were challenged in court over their constitutionality.”
“With a middle-of-the-night vote that followed hours of heated debate, Iowa Republicans have approved a measure that would ban most abortions in the state and all but guarantee a protracted legal battle,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“The move comes in the final days of the legislative session and amid mounting pressure from the Legislature’s most ardently anti-abortion corners to pass the so-called ‘heartbeat’ bill before adjournment.”
If signed into law by Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), the bill “would ban nearly all abortions after a fetal heartbeat is detected. That can occur about six weeks into a pregnancy and often before a woman realizes she’s pregnant.”
A Reynolds spokesperson told the Associated Press that the governor would likely sign the bill.
Iowa Senate Majority Leader Bill Dix (R) resigned both from his leadership position and from the Iowa Senate following publication of an article and video that showed him in what appeared to be a romantic relationship with a lobbyist, the Iowa Starting Line reports.
Dix had weathered previous controversies surrounding a sexual harassment case, “but today’s new controversies proved to be too much.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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