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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 190

Trump Is Everywhere

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 190: Trump Is Everywhere

Trump Slams Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Voting System

October 9, 2026 · 4:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump took to Truth Social Thursday to encourage Alaska voters to vote for the Republican ticket in November and criticized the state’s voting system in the process,” NewsNation reports.

“Trump questioned why there are three Republicans facing off against one Democrat in the November governor election, calling the system ‘stupid.'”

A bigger worry for Democrats is that a ranked-choice system takes longer to count the votes and that may leave an opening for Trump to challenge the results.
Taegan

Election Administration, State House, Trump Legacy

Ken Paxton’s Travel Security Cost Taxpayers Millions

October 9, 2026 · 6:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

ProPublica: “Records show the Texas attorney general has taken nearly 1,000 trips during his tenure, costing $3.3 million in security. We could only connect 138 of those trips and $553,000 in security costs to state business.”

Ethics, State House

Josh Shapiro Refuses to Commit to Finishing Term

October 8, 2026 · 11:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro refused to commit to serving out a full term if he wins reelection, following in the footsteps of Maryland Gov. Wes Moore as 2028 rumors fly,” the New York Post reports.

“Instead, Shapiro trained fire on his GOP rival, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, for seeking the governor’s mansion instead of finishing out a full term in office.”

2028 Campaign, State House

Kathy Hochul’s Improbable Turnaround

October 8, 2026 · 5:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Russell Berman: “What attention Hochul attracted in her first years as governor was largely negative. She won her own full term in 2022 by six points, a relatively narrow margin for New York that Nancy Pelosi blamed for costing Democrats control of the House… By late 2024, Hochul’s approval rating had dropped below 40 percent, and the Democrats who were plotting primary challenges included her own handpicked lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado.”

“But the past two years have yielded an impressive turnaround. Hochul has drawn praise for forging productive relationships with both Trump and Mamdani. She easily dispatched opponents on her left (Delgado quit his campaign for governor in February) and her right (Representative Elise Stefanik’s bid lasted just more than a month). Hochul appears on track to secure another four-year term as New York’s governor, and if she remains something less than an A-list political celebrity, she has earned the respect of a party that all but dismissed her not long ago.”

State House

Election Chief Preps for Trump Trying to Seize Ballots

October 8, 2026 · 3:49 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Cisco Aguilar believes this Election Day will be unlike any other in Nevada’s history. He is bracing for immigration agents to descend on polling locations, for federal law enforcement to move to seize ballots and for the President to openly dispute the state’s election results,” Time reports.

Said Aguilar: “If this administration chooses to challenge the elections, yes, we are preparing for it. We know it’s a very high probability.”

Election Administration, State House, White House

Trump Warns He’ll ‘Never Forgive’ Texas if Talarico Wins

October 8, 2026 · 2:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Digging in to defend both his pride and his political fortunes, President Donald Trump on Wednesday returned to deep-red Texas to rally for Ken Paxton’s Senate bid, while revealing at times his own trepidation that one of the Republican Party’s longest winning streaks may be about to end on his watch,” Time reports.

Trump warned the crowd in San Antonio: “We’ll never forgive you for what you have done if you let that happen.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Republicans Squirm as Latino Support Slips in South Texas

October 8, 2026 · 9:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans are in a dogfight to defend the Latino gains that had them dreaming of a lasting political realignment just two years ago,” Axios reports.

“Nowhere is that reversal of fortune more visible than in South Texas, where President Trump ran up historic numbers in 2024 — and Republicans redrew the map in 2025, assuming those Latino gains would last.”

“Trump won 55% of Texas Latino voters in 2024 exit polls, carried 14 of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border and won all four Rio Grande Valley counties.”

“Polling shows Trump’s disapproval ratings have skyrocketed among Latinos in Texas since 2024.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Pennsylvania Will Be an Early Election Day Bellwether

October 8, 2026 · 8:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

Bloomberg: “In the country’s biggest swing state, two national figures are going in opposite directions — and potentially pulling their parties up (or down) with them.”

“President Donald Trump is on a steep decline in Pennsylvania, according to new polling, while Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is climbing ahead of a nearly-certain White House run in 2028.”

“Their trajectories could ripple far beyond their own political fortunes. Pennsylvania hosts four critical House races this year — enough to give Democrats a majority — and Trump’s struggles (combined with Shapiro’s surging reelection run) are making it even harder for Republicans to hang on.”

A quick look at the poll closing times around the country suggests we’ll know a lot as Pennsylvania votes are counted.
Taegan

2026 Campaign, State House

GOP Candidate Brags About Physically Abusing His Wife

October 7, 2026 · 3:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Colorado minister and Republican gubernatorial nominee Victor Marx has declared that he shoved his wife in the past—and he’d do it again,” the New Republic reports.

“The admission came by way of a campaign video call with his supporters Tuesday evening, during which Marx shamelessly confessed that he pushed his wife against a door supposedly to teach her a lesson about self-defense.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Ken Paxton Trashes Trump in More Leaked Audio

October 7, 2026 · 1:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Yet another leaked recording of Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton has landed,” the New Republic reports.

Said Paxton: “It’s the war, it’s gas prices… It’s over $6 a gallon for diesel. People are feeling that pinch. So I’d say that’s probably the biggest problem… food prices, everything else… That’s by far our biggest problem, and I think that’s why we’re having a hard time with numbers.”

“This is at least the third time Paxton has unknowingly been recorded sending either subliminal or direct messages to Trump in recent days.”

New York Post: Ken Paxton rips into Iran war in another shocking audio leak: “People are feeling the pinch.”

State House

Wes Moore Does Not Commit to Full Second Term

October 7, 2026 · 11:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In the lone debate of his reelection campaign, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s toughest question was about his own future,” the Washington Post reports.

“Asked in Tuesday’s debate if he would commit to serving four years if reelected, Moore said that he was committed to serving the people of Maryland and their interests, including defending them from the Trump administration.”

Moore was then pressed to give a yes or no and responded: “I think I gave the answer. I’m committed to the people of Maryland, and that’s why I’m running for reelection.”

2028 Campaign, State House

Talarico’s Strength in Polls Inspires a Democratic Dream

October 7, 2026 · 10:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

Robert Draper: “In the go-big-or-go-home collective consciousness of Texas, no ambition is deemed too reckless, no daydream too wild. Save perhaps one.”

“It is the idea, fantastical to many as it is irresistible to others, that the Democrats will win a statewide race in Texas for the first time in 32 years.”

State House

GOP Is at Risk of Significant State Legislative Losses

October 7, 2026 · 5:19 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Most national attention in this year’s midterm elections is focused on congressional and governors’ races,” the Washington Post reports.

”But Democrats are also making a strong push to win power in state legislatures across the country, forcing Republicans to play defense in a terrain they have dominated in recent years.”

”Democrats are on offense. They could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Palm Beach GOP Pulls Support for Accused Molestor

October 6, 2026 · 7:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“At long last, the Palm Beach County GOP has finally pulled its support for a Florida candidate accused of sexually abusing a child,” MS NOW reports.

“Palm Beach Republicans have been under pressure over their continued association with Mike Caruso, who was serving as the county’s clerk of the circuit court and comptroller before his August arrest on charges including kidnapping, molestation and child abuse.”

Republicans, State House

The Midterm Battle for Power in the States

October 6, 2026 · 4:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans have dominated power in the states for years: They’ve held a majority of the nation’s governors’ offices and have had control in a majority of state legislatures going back to when President Barack Obama was in office,” the Washington Post reports.

“That could change this November. In addition to control of Congress, many state lawmakers and governors are on the ballot in the midterm elections, and Democrats are eyeing big wins.”

“A Washington Post analysis finds Democrats could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own. That means Democrats could rewrite policy on redistricting, abortion, climate, education and taxes in more states than ever in the Trump era.”

2018 Campaign, State House

Anti-Immigrant Post Fuels Donations to Candidate’s Rival

October 6, 2026 · 4:06 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Texas Railroad Commission candidate Bo French’s incendiary anti-immigrant post about students celebrating at a University of Texas football game last month appears to have backfired,” the Washington Post reports.

“Despite widespread criticism from fellow Republicans, French, had refused to take the viral post down, and instead attempted to raise funds off of the publicity.”

“Money has poured into the race from across the country. But it has favored his opponent, Houston Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, according to the latest campaign filing for July through September.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Greg Abbott to Skip Trump’s Event in Texas

October 6, 2026 · 1:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“There are plenty of Republican incumbents who don’t want to be seen with Donald Trump right now, but the phenomenon isn’t limited to blue states: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that when the president holds an event in San Antonio this week, he won’t be in attendance,” MS NOW reports.

“The governor said he has other campaign events planned and won’t be available.”

State House, White House

Greg Abbott Spends Big to Try to Stay in Office

October 6, 2026 · 11:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In a surprisingly competitive race, new filings reveal that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has spent down the majority of his war chest in an effort to preserve his position, while Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa’s fundraising has ramped up,” the Washington Post reports.

“In a New York Times-Siena poll conducted in late September, Hinojosa received support from 49 percent of likely voters, versus 46 percent for Abbott. The governor has spent more than $130 million on the race, while Hinojosa has spent $17 million.”

State House

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →

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