Rachel Bitecofer: “Party-loyalty voting in 2018 was typical, with 94 percent of all House votes cast by Republicans going to Republican candidates and 95 percent of Democrats voting for Democratic candidates, following the pattern of the past two decades. Senate party loyalty is only a little weaker — averaging 92 percent in 2018 and displaying little variation from the cycles before Trump.”

“The real change was who showed up to the polls — more women, young people (who increasingly live in suburbs), Latinos, Asian Americans and African Americans — not loyal voters who flipped. That meant electorates favorable for Republicans in 2014 became electorates favorable for Democrats in 2018. The real “swing” is the decision to vote at all, a choice driven largely by the backlash to Trump.”

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggests that Bernie Sanders could be a riskier nominee than his supporters are willing to admit. In a national trial heat with President Trump, Sanders led 48% to 42% among registered voters. Yet when the playing field was narrowed to the 10 states that were closest in the 2016 presidential election and that will likely decide 2020 — Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, North Carolina and Arizona — Sanders’s lead over Trump was slashed in half (48% to 45%). That 3-point gap was within the margin of error.

In contrast, Joe Biden led Trump by 9 points nationally (50% to 41%) and by 7 points (50% to 43%) in the battleground states.

Both Elizabeth Warren (47% to 45%) and Pete Buttigieg (46% to 44%) performed about as well as Sanders in the battleground states. The weakest performer was Michael Bloomberg (43% to 43%).

“The Trump campaign has shelled out more than $2 million in two years to a law firm known for suing media companies, a signal President Trump’s reelection strategy will be about going to war with the media as well as taking on his eventual Democratic rival,” CNN reports.

“Decency and honor. The fact that I’m not screaming like Bernie and waving my arms like Elizabeth is not a lack of fire.”

— Joe Biden, quoted by Politico, when asked by a voter, “What is your fire?”

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) has told associates that he may endorse Joe Biden on Sunday if the former vice president turns in a strong first-place finish in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, the Washington Post reports.

“A political advocacy group founded by Bernie Sanders entered into a nondisclosure agreement with an African American political consultant that bars her from discussing a lawsuit alleging racial discrimination at the organization and the Vermont senator’s 2016 presidential campaign,” the AP reports.

Jonathan Chait: “The more it looks like no one will win a majority, the more the also-rans have an incentive to stay in and win enough delegates to hope to have some clout at the convention. Take, for example, Amy Klobuchar. After disappointing in Nevada, Klobuchar no longer appears to have any realistic chance at winning the nomination. She’s polling in single digits nationally and in South Carolina; her plausible path involved Biden’s collapse, which was certainly possible but hasn’t happened. Still, Silver’s model projects her to win about 65 delegates if she sticks around. That’s not much, but if her delegates would vote for the candidate of her choice in a contested convention, it might be worth the costs of staying in.”

“The same is probably true at this point for Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, although at least they are close enough to second place in the South Carolina polls that they might hope to surprise there and get a bounce in the Super Tuesday contests. As for Michael Bloomberg, who isn’t on the ballot on Saturday but will finally compete on Tuesday, it’s been true from the start and continues to be true that the most likely effect of his campaign is to split the mainstream liberal vote and make Sanders the nominee.”

A new CNN poll in Texas finds Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field with 29%, followed by Joe Biden at 20%, Michael Bloomberg at 18% and Elizabeth Warren is at 15%. No other candidate reaches double-digits.

In California, Sanders leads with 35%, followed by Warren at 14%, Biden at 13% and Bloomberg at 12%.

A Berkeley IGS poll in California finds Sanders at 34%, Warren at 17%, Bloomberg at 12% and Buttigieg at 11%.

A new Univision/University of Houston poll in Texas finds Sanders leading with 265, followed by Biden and Bloomberg tied at 20%.

A new Morning Consult survey found that 26% of Democratic primary voters believe former President Barack Obama has endorsed Michael Bloomberg for president and 25% think he’s endorse Joe Biden.

However, Obama has not yet endorsed any candidate.

Jonathan Chait: “I have devoted a lot of space to criticizing Bernie Sanders (and, especially, bad arguments made on his behalf). I will probably continue to do so, in part because I have disagreements with his worldview, and mainly because I think the available evidence says his nomination would increase President Trump’s odds of reelection. But we should be cognizant of the distorting effect a primary can have on our perspective. The flaws of candidates we oppose feel more irritating over time, even if they haven’t actually grown, while their virtues seem to recede. As an exercise in maintaining perspective, I’m devoting a column to the virtues of Bernie Sanders.”

“Sanders is motivated by an ideological vision that is fundamentally humane. For all his attacks on the ‘millionaires and billionaires,’ the only true visceral rage he shows is at poverty in the midst of one of the world’s wealthiest societies. His anger at the inaccessibility of health care, housing, and basic needs for all Americans is the through line of his career, through all of its idiosyncratic turns.”

“Sanders is generally pragmatic about how he advances this goal, and has spent decades working with people who do not share his values in order to make incremental advances. He is not motivated by wealth. (While Sanders has a lot of money, he accumulated it by saving what he earned; like his Larry David caricature, he does not enjoy creature comforts.) His passion to lift the unfortunate is pure and admirable.”

Peter Nicholas: “Team Trump views Sanders as the weakest candidate left on the Democratic side, and isn’t eager to do anything to impede his rise, several of the president’s past and present political advisers told me. They seem to see Sanders as a no-lose proposition: The president wins whether the senator from Vermont captures the nomination or not.”

“Should Sanders prevail, Trump’s strategy will be to spotlight his democratic-socialist identity in an attempt to make voters fear he’ll take away their freedom. (Trump will try to brand any Democratic nominee a socialist—Team Trump just thinks it’ll be easier with the guy whose self-description includes the word.)”

“If Sanders falters, Trump will argue that he was unfairly robbed of a nomination he earned. Trump has long stoked suspicions of an anti-Sanders conspiracy within the Democratic Party, for what seems to be two purposes: leaving Sanders’s following so disillusioned that they stay home on Election Day, or perhaps persuading them to switch sides and vote Republican. Sanders may not need Trump, but for the time being, Trump needs Sanders.”

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) endorsed Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination, the Washington Post reports.

Said Kaine: “It is sad to have a President who no one holds up as a role model for America’s kids. By contrast, Joe Biden has exemplary heart, character, and experience.”

A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 22%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 17%, Mike Bloomberg at 13%, Pete Buttigieg at 8%, Elizabeth Warren at 8% and Amy Klobuchar at 5%.

Asked if they will support the party’s eventual nominee, 82% of Democratic primary voters say yes, and 67% say “definitely.”

Of the 18% who are uncertain or who say they definitely won’t, two-thirds fear the nominee will be “too liberal” and about one-fifth fear the nominee will be “too moderate.”

Joe Biden admitted he wasn’t arrested years ago trying to see Nelson Mandela in South Africa, telling CNN: “I said arrested. I meant I was not able to move… I guess I wasn’t arrested. I was stopped. I wasn’t able to go where I wanted to go.”

A new Goldman Sachs report is warning Wall Street that the coronavirus outbreak could cost President Trump the election in November, CNN reports.

From the report: “If the coronavirus epidemic materially affects US economic growth it may increase the likelihood of Democratic victory in the 2020 election.”

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said he now sees a 40% chance of a US recession during the first half of 2020, up from 20% previously.

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll of finds Bernie Sanders is considered the strongest contender among an engaged Democratic base of debate watchers to take on President Trump in November.

As of this morning, the FiveThirtyEight forecast shows a 51% chance that no one will win a majority of delegates before the Democratic convention.

That outcome would result in the first contested convention since 1952.

A new Data for Progress poll in South Carolina finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic primary race with 34%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 25%, Tom Steyer at 13%, Pete Buttigieg at 13%, Elizabeth Warren at 7% and Amy Klobuchar at 5%.

FiveThirtyEight: Biden surges in South Carolina.