Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) told the Columbus Dispatch that he remains undecided about another presidential run, but that the midterm election results could suggest a greater opening for an independent or third-party candidate.
Said Kasich: “I know everybody’s wondering how I’m going to make a decision, when I’m going to make a decision. I don’t know, but what’s most important to me is that I can have a voice that can be a healing voice for the country.”
“Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) isn’t saying if she plans to run for president, but her Facebook presence is another story,” the HuffPost reports.
“The potential Democratic 2020 contender is running roughly 1,100 Facebook ads asking their audience to sign a ‘Protect Mueller’ petition — a tactic politicians commonly use to build huge lists of potential voters and their email addresses.”
Doug Sosnik gives Axios his warning signs for Republicans in 2020:
His warning signs for Democrats:
“A major GOP money group is getting ready to slam Mike Bloomberg with negative talking points if the billionaire Democrat makes a run for the White House in 2020,” CNBC reports.
“America Rising is preparing an opposition-research blitz against Bloomberg that would focus on a range of topics, from his close relationships with Wall Street executives to controversial comments he made about women.”
Texas Monthly: “The allure of San Antonio’s Castro brothers has been building for years and their status as the crown princes of a new era of Texas Hispanic politics is now well established. As one longtime Democratic consultant said, they have successfully established themselves as the next generation of leadership in Texas, with an Ivy League pedigree and reputation for strategic thinking. But something happened this election cycle: Beto O’Rourke.”
Said the Democratic consultant: “Julián and his brother are like Bing Crosby and Perry Como—who just saw Elvis.”
“Before Beto, there has been a well-choreographed buildup to the will-he-or-won’t-he moment when former San Antonio mayor and former Obama cabinet member Julián Castro announces his decision about a presidential run in 2020.”
“To win re-election, President Trump must wage a two-front war: Not only does he have to defend Democratic-leaning Midwest states that sealed his victory in 2016, but he now needs to defend against clear Republican erosion in the South and Southwest,” Mike Allen reports.
Said former White House aide Doug Sosnik: “Changing demographics and Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992.”
“Sosnik projects that there could be more tossup states in the South and Southwest than in the Midwest — with almost twice the number of electoral votes at stake.”
“President Trump could be eyeing Minnesota as a way to expand his Midwest footprint in 2020, if the activities of his designated super PAC in the midterm elections are any indication,” the Washington Examiner reports.
“Minnesota was among the limited 2018 battlegrounds to see a major investment by America First Action, which gathered data that might inform Trump’s strategy and boost his re-election bid over the next two years. America First Action tailored its activities to states and subregions considered crucial to Trump’s next campaign: Michigan; Minnesota; North Carolina; Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.”
Politico: “Anticipating a sprawling Democratic presidential field and a shortage of experienced, high-quality campaign professionals, a left-leaning group is launching a $4.5 million effort to train 1,000 staffers to be ready in time for 2020 combat.”
A new Monmouth poll finds a little more than 3 in 10 Americans want to see President Trump win a second term in the White House.
“Those who don’t want to see Trump reelected predictably varies by party, but 16% — not an insignificant number — of Republicans say Trump should be a one-term leader… while 92% of Democrats and 58% of independents said the same.”
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) is quietly pushing to change an Oregon law that would prevent him for running for president and reelection to the Senate at the same time, the Willamette Week reports.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg “declared lifetime allegiance to the Democratic Party on Tuesday and outlined an aggressive timeline for deciding whether to run for president,” the AP reports.
Said Bloomberg: “Thanksgiving, Christmas and then maybe a few weeks into January — that’s when you really gotta sit down, talk to your advisers and say, ‘Look, do I have a chance?’ I think I know why I would want to run. I think I know what I think this country should do and what I would do. But I just don’t know whether it’s possible.”
He added” “If people don’t seem to be warming to you, there’s plenty of other ways that I can make a difference in life and say thank you to this country for what it’s given my kids and me.”
“Should he run, Bloomberg would bring virtually limitless resources and a pragmatic governing approach to what is expected to be a massive 2020 Democratic field… It’s unclear, however, whether there’s room for Bloomberg in today’s Democratic Party.”
Julián Castro (D) convened a group of supporters in San Antonio in preparation for a 2020 presidential campaign, Politico reports.
“Castro and his twin brother, Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), brought together about 20 of their loyal donors and bundlers in San Antonio to begin to sketch out a national bid.”
Bloomberg: “The midterm elections reshaped the 2020 presidential campaign landscape by taking some longstanding battlegrounds off the map while adding new swing states, presenting challenges for President Trump and the crowd of Democrats eager to run against him.”
“Perhaps the most significant shift in 2018 came in upscale, highly educated suburban areas that had voted Republican for generations and broke for Democrats this year.”
Said GOP consultant Brad Todd: “We can’t let the suburbs become a part of the realignment. Democrats’ numbers in urban areas and coastal areas are skyrocketing, much like our numbers are in the heartland. Suburban seats in California and the Northeast are going to continue to be difficult for us. But we need to win suburban seats in the Sun Belt and the Midwest.”
Associated Press: “Running for president used to involve a familiar routine, with potential candidates spending months publicly demurring about their ambitions and professing to be content in their current roles. Advisers labored to keep meetings with donors and potential staff under wraps ahead of formal, carefully choreographed campaign announcements.”
“This time around, many Democrats believe it would be too risky to wait much longer before making their intentions known, particularly those with lower national profiles who could quickly be overshadowed by a field that could have more than two dozen candidates.”
“There are practicalities to consider, given the limited supply of money and top-flight staff available to run a campaign. But another driving factor is more visceral: Democrats are simply eager to take on the president.”
Axios on three factors that should worry President Trump and the GOP:
The Iowa Starting Line reports on speculation that former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) may challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) in 2020.
“Vilsack remains one of the most popular figures in Iowa politics, with extremely high ratings among Democrats based on polling from this past cycle. He won 49 Iowa counties in his first race in 1998 and 68 of them in 2002. Democrats long for the days where they could actually be competitive again in rural Iowa, and the former Secretary of Agriculture for Barack Obama might be the perfect person to do just that.”
“Vilsack would start with a great national fundraising network. A run by him would probably clear the field of any of the more traditional Democratic contenders, but that doesn’t mean he’d be totally unopposed. A proven winner, his run would turn Iowa into one of Democrats’ top pick-up targets in the country.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Wonk Wire, Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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