“President Trump told his supporters at a raucous rally on Tuesday evening that Representative Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, who recently left the Democratic Party, was a symbol of the future. Without evidence, he said that an increasing number of Americans were ‘disgusted’ by congressional Democrats who, he said, are ‘obsessed with demented hoaxes, this crazy witch hunt and deranged partisan crusades,'” the New York Times reports.

Said Trump: “They’ve spent the last three years and probably even before I came down on that beautiful escalator with our beautiful future first lady, trying to overthrow the last election, and we will make sure that they face another crushing defeat in the next election.”

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Joe Biden holds a modest lead in the Democratic race for president with 26%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21% and Elizabeth Warren at 15%.

They are followed by Michael Bloomberg at 8%, Amy Klobuchar at 7%, Pete Buttigieg at 6% and Andrew Yang at 3%. No other candidate tops 2%.

Even though President Trump’s impeachment trial will continue tomorrow, Sen. Amy Klobuchar has scheduled a quick trip to Iowa tonight for her presidential campaign.

A new Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute poll in California finds Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic field with 26%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 20%, Joe Biden at 15%, Pete Buttigieg at 7% and Mike Bloomberg at 6%.

“House Republican leaders privately conceded in a closed meeting Tuesday morning that they are in the midst of a full-blown fundraising crisis, which would imperil any chance they have at regaining their majority in 2020,” Politico reports.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) put it bluntly: “They are kicking our ass.”

A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders is leading the Democratic presidential race with 28%, followed by Joe Biden at 13%, Pete Buttigieg at 12%, and Elizabeth Warren at 11%.

A new Morning Consult poll finds Michael Bloomberg at 12% nationally and in fourth place, just behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s 14%.

Also important: “Upon entering the race in November, Bloomberg’s net favorability (or the share of voters with favorable views minus those with unfavorable views) was just +5 among Democratic primary voters and +4 among black voters. In the latest poll, he was at +33 among all Democratic primary voters and +32 among black voters.”

Sen. Amy Klobuchar said that Michael Bloomberg should be on the debate stage, saying voters should get a chance to evaluate him as he pours money into Super Tuesday states, The Hill reports.

Said Klobuchar: “I’d be fine with him being on the debate stage because I think that instead of just putting your money out there, he’s actually got to be on the stage and be able to go back and forth so voters can evaluate him in that way.”

“Bloomberg has not qualified for the Democratic primary debates because he is not fundraising, and therefore cannot meet the donor threshold.”

Jonathan Chait: “In the field of political forecasting, almost nothing is a matter of certainty, and almost everything is a matter of probability. If Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders — who currently leads the field in Iowa and New Hampshire, and appears to be consolidating support among the party’s progressive wing, while its moderates remain splintered — his prospects against Donald Trump in November would be far from hopeless. Polarization has given any major party nominee a high enough floor of support that the term ‘unelectable’ has no real place in the discussion. What’s more, every candidate in the race brings a suite of their own liabilities Trump could exploit.”

“That said, the totality of the evidence suggests Sanders is an extremely, perhaps uniquely, risky nominee. His vulnerabilities are enormous and untested. No party nomination, with the possible exception of Barry Goldwater in 1964, has put forth a presidential nominee with the level of downside risk exposure as a Sanders-led ticket would bring. To nominate Sanders would be insane.”

David Frum: Bernie can’t win.

Associated Press: “Bloomberg is running, but he’s on his own track, essentially creating a parallel race to the nomination with no precedent. While his competitors are hunkered down in the four states with the earliest primaries, Bloomberg is almost everywhere else… He’s staked his hopes on states like Texas, California and Arkansas that vote on March 3, aiming to disrupt the Democratic primary right around the time it’s typically settling on a front-runner. Or, should Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, be that front-runner, Bloomberg could be a backstop to Democrats still looking for a moderate choice.”

“Skipping the early voting states and banking on success in later delegate-rich contests has never been done successfully. But no candidate has ever brought the financial firepower that Bloomberg can — he is worth an estimated $60 billion and has already spent more than $200 million building a campaign in more than two dozen states, taking him well past Super Tuesday.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “The FiveThirtyEight average has Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden tied for first (Sanders has a 0.1% advantage). But the most important point made by the FiveThirtyEight analysts is over at their projection page: “Joe Biden is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in Iowa. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 44% of the vote.” Plug in Sanders, and the same results come back. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have similar, although slightly lower, ranges. In other words, it’s plausible that those four candidates could finish in any order at all. It also wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of them finish below Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, although she could also finish below several of the others if she winds up at the bottom of her likely range.”

“The FiveThirtyEight model is telling us something important. When there are lots of candidates, and lots of voters who like most or all of them, the history is clear: Large swings from the polls to the final results are possible in Iowa, even in the final week.”

“Unite the Country, an independent political action committee supporting Joe Biden, is on pace to outspend his campaign in Iowa with just a week to go before the Iowa caucuses,” CBS News reports.

“The super PAC, which is able to collect unlimited donations, has purchased or reserved more than $4.5 million on broadcast and cable advertisements through Monday, when the Iowa caucuses take place. The Biden campaign is on pace to spend a little less than that, about $4.2 million on television and radio advertisements so far, according to Kantar/CMAG data.”

Joe Biden said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) had “spilled the beans” after the Iowa Republican gleefully suggested that the Senate impeachment debate surrounding the former vice president could hinder his performance in her state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses next week, Politico reports.

Said Biden: “Iowa caucus-goers take note. Joni Ernst just spilled the beans. She and Donald Trump are scared to death I’ll be the nominee. On Feb. 3rd, let’s make their day.”

“President Trump is headed to the Jersey Shore on Tuesday to host a political rally for Jeff Van Drew, the congressman who switched parties to join House Republicans in protest of the impeachment vote,” Bloomberg reports.

“The president’s visit to Wildwood is intended to bolster the freshman lawmaker, who won his seat as part of the Democratic wave of 2018 but subsequently declared his ‘undying support’ for the president during an Oval Office meeting. Trump has repeatedly touted Van Drew’s defection to argue that the Democratic-led impeachment inquiry is illegitimate, and told the lawmaker he would endorse his re-election bid.”

“Joe Biden has said he doesn’t need to win the first presidential primary state in the nation — and he’s campaigning like it,” Politico reports.

“Biden has been dark on New Hampshire television since the New Year. He has a smaller presence on the ground compared to his rivals, barely takes questions from voters, and he’s trailing in the polls here.”

Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) will soon announce a challenge to Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), setting up a bitter Republican showdown in November that pits one of President Trump’s most vocal defenders against a wealthy former executive backed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R), the Atlantic Journal Constitution reports.