“We’re getting your husbands back to work.”

— President Trump, at a campaign rally in Michigan.

“President Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016,” Bloomberg reports.

“Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even.”

A clarification from the Washington Post: “Trump has pulled TV reservations in recent months, and shifted spending to coordinated campaign. But not abandoning state. That said, Dems, with Bloomberg, winning air war nearly 4 to 1.“

Politico: “In the most competitive 94 districts, Democrats have booked over $177 million in ads since Sept. 1, while their GOP opponents have booked $93 million.”

“Republican outside groups have partly made up the difference, but the party is still bracing for a string of defeats next month.”

From OH Predictive Insights:

• ARIZONA: Biden 49%, Trump 46%

From RMG Research:

• NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 48%, Trump 47%

From New York Times/Siena:

• NEVADA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%

From Civiqs:

• PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 45%

It would be hard to create a more powerful ad than this one.

“The only people truly better off than they were four years ago are the billionaires that got Trump’s tax cuts. In the meantime, he has not been able to manage extending relief to millions of families who can’t pay the rent right now, can’t put food on the table right now. You know, I don’t understand how it is that he cannot organize Republicans in Congress to do the right thing. And its not like it’s his money that we’re asking to pay because he doesn’t pay taxes.”

— Barack Obama, quoted by The Hill.

Associated Press: “He planned to unveil his closing message during a Tuesday speech in Warm Springs, Georgia, where natural hot springs offered President Franklin Delano Roosevelt comfort as he battled polio and governed a nation weathering the Great Depression and World War II.”

“The former vice president’s campaign says his appearance will bookend his visit earlier this month to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, when Biden used the site of the bloody Civil War battle to issue a call for bipartisanship and putting country ahead of party. On Tuesday, he will try to evoke Roosevelt’s New Deal sensitivities while promising to restore the nation’s character.”

First Read moves Arizona from Lean Democratic to Toss Up and shifts Texas from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

“We were torn on Arizona. Biden maintains his lead there, but the polling has tightened. And right now, it seems to be in a different place than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which is why we’ve moved it to Toss Up…”

Texas: Biden has decreased his spending to about $600,000 for the week (and he’s getting outside help), while Trump and GOP outside groups were dark.”

The consensus electoral map still has Arizona as going to Biden.

“He’s jealous of COVID’s media coverage.”

— Barack Obama, once again sharply criticizing President Trump over his response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Bill Kristol asks to consider three alternate Wednesday, November 4th headlines:

• “Trump loses presidency as Midwest flips; GOP holds Senate.”
• “Trump defeated by big margin; election called early as Florida and North Carolina go to Biden; Democrats win Senate.”
• “Biden wins by double digits in popular vote; rout extends to victory in Texas; Democrats control Senate easily.”

“The initial reactions to these would be very different. But so, probably, would be the lasting effects. One would be a defeat for Trump, the second a rejection not just of Trump but perhaps of Trumpism. The third would open up the possibility for a re-making of the GOP and of conservatism itself.”

Twenty former U.S. attorneys — all of them Republicans — on Tuesday publicly called President Trump “a threat to the rule of law in our country,” and urged that he be replaced in November with his Democratic opponent, former vice president Joe Biden, the Washington Post reports.

Bloomberg: “Trump held three rallies Monday, all in Pennsylvania, with three more scheduled Tuesday and as many as five or six a day expected by the weekend. The rallies befit the showman with roots in reality television: blaring music, slick production, video montages, warm-up speeches, Air Force One as a backdrop and the president himself as the headline attraction. Attendees erupt in screams and cheers at his arrival, and local Republicans say it’s unlike any political event they’ve seen.”

“Holding rallies in defiance of coronavirus health recommendations has fueled voters’ disapproval of his handling of the pandemic — feeding Biden’s key argument that Trump has mishandled the first major crisis of his presidency. And pollsters say there’s little evidence of a rally boost.”

“Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University professor who studied Trump’s rally impact in the 2016 and 2018 cycles, found they didn’t move the needle in the states where they were held. He expects the same in 2020.”

Philadelphia Inquirer: Trump blitzes Pennsylvania with 3 rallies as coronavirus spikes lead to calls for him to stop.

A new CNBC poll finds Joe Biden leads Donald Trump nationally, 51% to 40%, a two-point increase from the June poll and six points better than April.

“After weeks of early and mail voting, at least 66 million Americans have already cast their ballots for next week’s election, a historic figure that has upended expectations about Election Day and which states could decide the presidential contest,” the Washington Post reports.

“The massive number, which includes voters who have cast ballots either in person or by mail, has stunned election officials and campaign operatives. It equals close to half of the total turnout in 2016 — all but ensuring, with early voting continuing through the weekend, that the majority of ballots will be cast before Election Day for the first time in history.”