Dan Pfeiffer: “Before tonight, Republicans were already pretty worried about holding onto their razor-thin majority. After a narrow win in a special election in Tennessee, they should be terrified…”

“One year ago, Trump won this district by 22 points. Yet he was entirely absent from the GOP campaign. Republicans never used him in ads. He didn’t campaign for Van Epps. His role was limited to some tweets and then a phone call to Speaker Mike Johnson while Johnson was at a rally. Johnson put the president on speakerphone, but both he and the audience seemed, at best, ambivalent about Trump’s involvement.”

“There’s no question Van Epps’s strategists were banging their heads against the wall, since their entire strategy had been to pretend Trump didn’t exist. But, of course, Trump can never resist making it about himself.”

“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans. If every House district in the country shifted left by this same amount — about 15 points — we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018.”

— Republican strategist Matt Whitlock, writing on X, on the Tennessee special House election last night.

“Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms,” Politico reports.

“Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points.”

“That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.”

Nate Cohn: “While it might seem unimaginable in the wake of a triumphant victory, the winning party in the last five presidential elections has gone on to lose each of the next five midterms — and four of the next five presidential elections.”

“If the last month — or really, the last year — of election results is any indication, today’s Republicans are following the same path. Almost every election night this year has gone poorly for them.”

“They’ve lost or badly underperformed over and over — including on Tuesday in a special congressional election in Tennessee, where with nearly all of the vote counted the Republicans led by nine percentage points in a district that voted for President Trump last year by 22 points.”

For members: Republicans Are Staring at a Very Bad Midterm Cycle

“Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is moving closer toward entering the crowded Texas Senate primary, muddying Democrats’ best chance in years to win statewide there,” Punchbowl News reports.

“Crockett, a controversial sophomore representing Dallas, is making a “special announcement” Monday afternoon. Crockett has polled the race and spoken to her potential Senate Democratic primary rivals — former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Tx) and state Rep. James Talarico — about her interest in running.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) has announced he’s running for reelection in 2026, WTOP reports.

“James Solomon, a 41-year-old city councilmember elected with the support of anti-machine progressives, will be the next mayor of New Jersey’s second largest city,” Politico reports.

“Solomon won Tuesday’s runoff to lead Jersey City, besting disgraced former Gov. Jim McGreevey. Both men are Democrats but from different parts of the party.”

Matt Van Epps (R) is projected to defeat Aftyn Behn (D) in a special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ.

All polls are now closed in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district special election race.

Leave your reactions in the comments as results come in.