China’s military announced it was mobilizing army, navy, air and rocket units around Taiwan in major military drills to test what it said was combat readiness and to send a “serious warning” against any push for Taiwanese independence, CNN reports.
Trump’s Year of Media Capture
John Avlon: “This was the year when public broadcasting was gutted and hyper-partisans prospered, when the First Amendment was exhaustively praised and opportunistically abandoned. It was the year when media capture came to America.”
“Before 2025, ‘media capture’ was a term used exclusively overseas, describing the compromise of a free press to curry favor with the regime in power. Sometimes this happened through threats and intimidation, greased by partisan group think. Other times, the cudgel was money: wealthy administration allies would buy independent news organizations and neuter them to fall in line with the state-backed version of facts.”
“Hungary is often cited as a prime example of media capture — and so it seemed notable that Hungary’s elected autocrat Viktor Orban was repeatedly praised by Donald Trump and Republicans during the 2024 election. It was a clear sign of intent.”
Trump Hails ‘A Lot of Progress’ in Talks With Zelensky
President Trump said he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy over a possible peace deal, but that it might take a few weeks to get it done and there’s no set timeline, Bloomberg reports.
Asked what happens if no deal is reached, Trump replied: “They keep fighting and they keep dying.”
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Trump Has ‘Productive’ Call with Putin
President Trump on Sunday said that he had a “very productive” phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine, CNBC reports.
“The high-stakes conversations come at a key moment in efforts to end nearly four years of war initiated when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.”
GOP Coalescing Behind JD Vance for 2028
Los Angeles Times: “Uninterested in a competitive Republican primary in 2028, Turning Point USA plans to deploy representatives across Iowa’s 99 counties in the coming months to build the campaign infrastructure it believes could deliver Vance, a Midwesterner from nearby Ohio, a decisive victory, potentially short-circuiting a fractious GOP race, insiders said.”
“It is the latest move in a quiet effort by some in Trump’s orbit to clear the field of viable competitors. Earlier this month, Marco Rubio, the secretary of State previously floated by Trump as a possible contender, appeared to take himself out of the running.”
Said Rubio: “If Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
The Story of Operation Midway
Chicago Tribune: “What happened here for more than two months is unlike anything in recent American history: the federal government sending agents dressed for war into neighborhoods of the country’s third-largest city to arrest mostly people who look Latino and to ask questions later. To target people largely on the basis of their skin color, on the presumption that they may be in the country without documentation, or that they may have a criminal record, or an association with a gang.”
History Points to Huge Losses for Republicans Next Year
Ed Kilgore: “The party of a sitting U.S. president almost always loses ground during the midterms. Since all 435 U.S. House seats are up every two years, we tend to assess midterms by how each party performs in House races. And dating back to FDR’s second term, the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterm elections.”
“Whether Donald Trump can break this trend is the crucial question heading into 2026. The current math is not in the GOP’s favor; the party will start the year with no more than a two-seat House majority and Trump’s gerrymandering push is floundering. The stakes are particularly high because Trump won’t be able to enact much of his audacious second-term agenda if Republicans lose their governing trifecta in Washington.”
“So what are the odds that Republicans can defy history in 2026?”
ICE Shifts Tactics
“The Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign has led to a significant change in strategy, as federal officers shift away from focusing on arresting immigrants already held in local jails to tracking them down on the streets and in communities,” the Washington Post reports.
“The result has been a huge surge of such at-large arrests, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement tallying about 17,500 in September and on pace to exceed that in October.”
The Top 10 Senate Races Next Year
NBC News reviews the top 10 Senate races to watch next year.
The top four are in Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.
After that, there’s Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Minnesota, the competitiveness of which could hinge on their primary outcomes.
Trump Is Putting Us on a Path to World War III
Greg Grandin: “One wonders what goes on in the minds of the architects of President Trump’s foreign policy. It seems as if they have all taken time to study the classic history books on the causes of the world wars — Margaret MacMillan’s The War that Ended Peace, E.H. Carr’s The Twenty Years’ Crisis — and then said to themselves: That’s exactly where we want to take the world.”
“Mr. Trump, both in his first term and now during the first eleven months of his second, has made clear that the bipartisan post-Cold War consensus — by which the United States oversaw an economically integrated world order governed by common laws regulating property relations, trade and conflict — has outlived its usefulness. In its place the White House offers a vision of the world carved up into garrisoned spheres of competing influence.”
The 2028 Race Has Begun
Politico: “White House hopefuls in both parties are maneuvering for the post-Trump era. Here’s where they stand at the end of 2025.”
Utah’s Redistricting Long Game
Politico: “In Utah, Republicans are attempting to repeal an anti-gerrymandering measure that would allow them to redraw a new map ahead of the 2028 cycle. If they succeed, the GOP-controlled legislature will be poised to again redraw favorably after the 2030 census — when Utah, the country’s fastest-growing state, will likely be apportioned an additional seat.”
“That means, should Republicans make good on their effort, the state could have different maps in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2032 — four times in an eight-year span, a near-unprecedented streak.”
Japanese Births Set to Fall Below Lowest Forecasts
Japanese births set to fall below lowest official forecasts in 2025: Demographers warn new births to hit lowest level since records began in 1899 as population crisis deepens, the Financial Times reports.
How James Blair Took Washington by Storm
Politico: “The wunderkind’s meteoric rise, which has engendered doubters every step of the way, is owed in large part to a couple big bets he made last year while he was political director of Trump’s campaign, which, while criticized at the time, helped propel Trump back into the White House.”
“He pushed the campaign to primarily target low- and mid-propensity voters, and made the decision to outsource much of the get-out-the-vote operation to outside groups rather than run it in-house.”
Trump’s Cabinet of Main Characters
“Several members of President Trump’s national security team have taken on unusually large public profiles — with frequent on-camera appearances, dramatic pronouncements and even eyebrow-raising wardrobe choices,” Axios reports.
“It’s no secret that Trump prefers his appointees to appear straight out of ‘central casting.’ But in national security roles, showmanship can quickly become a liability.”
JD Vance Delicately Plots 2028 Run
“Vice President JD Vance plans to literally fly above MAGA’s rising civil war — campaigning coast to coast in the midterms and sticking close to President Trump, while building support for an expected presidential run in 2028,” Axios reports.
“Vance has to get ready for a national campaign. But he can’t look too eager, since President Trump isn’t one to share the spotlight.”
“Vance aides say he’s focused on next November’s midterms, not thinking about 2028. But talking with outside Vance allies and others familiar with his thinking, Axios stitched together the VP’s five-pronged plan for making 2026 pay off later.”
JB Pritzker’s Illinois Political Clout Faces Test
“Gov. JB Pritzker is expected to cruise to an easy victory in the March 17 Democratic primary in Illinois as he seeks a third term. The party’s U.S. Senate primary might give him heartburn,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The billionaire and potential 2028 presidential candidate is backing his lieutenant governor to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, who is set to retire, and she is struggling to outshine two main rivals. The winner of the primary in the deeply blue state is likely to be its next senator.”
“The election is a test of Pritzker’s clout in a state where he has leveraged his wealth to dominate the Democratic Party—donating tens of millions of dollars to candidates and committees—in a way that has some similarities to the control President Trump exerts on the Republican Party nationally. A loss for Juliana Stratton would be a potential embarrassment for him as he works to raise his national profile.”
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