Jonathan Bernstein: “The best thing that could happen is the best thing always for the incumbent party: Peace and prosperity. And both of those, especially the latter, are usually beyond the short-term reach of incumbents; the best they can do is to not screw things up.”

“In this particular case, that would surely entail not getting into a prolonged shooting war in South America. But with the economy, who knows? Presumably ending Donald Trump’s tariffs would help, at least on the margins, but perhaps no more than that.”

“The other answer is that Trump is personally unpopular, and there are a whole bunch of things he does – policy positions and personal actions – that might theoretically help if he stopped doing them. But that we all know Trump isn’t going to do that.”

Punchbowl News: “Republicans are coming to terms with a post-Trump political landscape where the party can no longer rely on the president’s coattails to win majorities.”

“Memories of 2018 and 2022 are still fresh in Republicans’ minds. In those years, low-propensity Trump voters stayed home and Democratic turnout skyrocketed.”

Jonathan Martin: “The answer is that Trump is living his best life in this second and final turn in the White House.”

“Coming up on one year back in power, he’s turned the office into an adult fantasy camp, a Tom Hanks-in-Big, ice-cream-for-dinner escapade posing as a presidency.”

“Donald Trump’s aides and allies are discussing the possibility of making Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the top White House economic adviser — in addition to his current job — should the president pick Kevin Hassett as the next chair of the Federal Reserve,” Bloomberg reports.

“Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats are pressing the leaders of Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Meta to provide details on their donations to support President Trump’s White House ballroom—and whether the companies have any quid pro quo arrangements with the Trump administration,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“A dormant government building in the nation’s capital may seem like an unlikely setting for the signing of a peace deal,” the New York Times reports.

“But nearly nine months after the Trump administration seized control of the U.S. Institute of Peace headquarters in an extraordinary public showdown and all but shuttered it, the center has re-emerged, newly named for President Trump.”