Archive: October 18, 2005
Former CIA Agent
Larry Johnson: "Had lunch today with a person who has a direct tie to one of the folks facing indictment in the Plame affair. There are 22 files that Fitzgerald is looking at for potential indictment. These include Stephen Hadley, Karl Rove, Lewis Libby, Dick Cheney, and Mary Matalin (there are others of course). Hadley has told friends he expects to be indicted. No wonder folks are nervous at the White House."
Update:
Hotline On Call has a list of all those who have either testified or been interviewed by Patrick Fitzgerald.
The
AP notes Rove "canceled plans to attend two Republican fund-raisers" today "as he waits to hear whether he or anyone else will be indicted in the leak of a CIA officer's identity."
Sparked by
stories that suggest Vice President Dick Cheney's office "is involved in the Plame-CIA spy link investigation, government officials and advisers passed around rumors that the vice president might step aside and that President Bush would elevate Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice," according to
U.S. News and World Report.
"The rumor spread so fast that some Republicans by late morning were already drawing up reasons why Rice couldn't get the job or run for president in 2008."
According to the latest 50 state
Survey USA poll, President Bushís net job approval fell from -16 in September to -21 in the last month. Net job approval is the percentage that approve minus the percentage that disapprove.
Bush has a net job approval of +25 in Utah, the highest in the nation, to -41 in Rhode Island, the lowest in the nation.
In May, Bush had a positive net job approval in 20 states. Today, Bush has a positive net job approval in just 7 states.
"They have got a senior cooperating witness -- someone who is giving them all of that."
-- A source who has been questioned in the CIA leak probe, quoted by the
New York Daily News, suggesting that one of Dick Cheney's top aides might be cooperating with special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald.
Raw Story says the cooperating witness is John Hannah, a senior national security aide on loan to Cheney's office.
Talk Left has an excellent explanation of the pressure to cooperate.
A new
Diagio/Hotline poll of the Virginia gubernatorial races shows Tim Kaine (D) with a two point lead over Jerry Kilgore (R) among registered voters. However, Kilgore leads by one point among likely voters.
"Education and transportation are the most important issues. Dems seem to be more enthused about their guy than GOPers are about theirs."
Looking ahead to next year's gubernatorial primaries in Alabama, a new
Survey USA poll finds Gov. Bob Riley (R) facing "a strong challenge" from Roy Moore (R), while former Gov. Don Siegelman (D) "easily defeats" Lucy Baxley.
In the Republican primary, Riley edges Moore, 44% to 38%.
On the Democratic side, Siegelman is way ahead of Baxley, 54% to 24%.
Hotline On Call notes analysis by "an influential Republican" that suggests "the field of competitive house seats might not be as small as the NRCC spins it."
The three keys to the analysis:
- The NRCC model suggests only 20-25 seats are in play, but it's based upon the "current political environment" which could easily change.
- The 527 groups, particularly for Democrats, "could easily take a ho-hum race and throttle it forward."
- The parties continue to recruit and DCCC chair Rahm Emanel (D-IL) is one of the best fundraisers/recruiters in the country.
Meanwhile, in Charlie Cook's email column today, he points out that while he sees only 28 competitive seats, there's still plenty of recruiting time left and that can make all the difference. "In fact, most state's filing deadlines are still quite a long way off. In fact, the earliest deadline is still more than eight weeks away -- Dec. 19 in Illinois. The latest deadline is next Aug. 11, in Louisiana."
Most stories about Harriet Miers's
responses to questions from the Senate Judiciary Committee focus on her stance that most abortions should be banned (see the
AP story). Based on her religious beliefs, this can't really surprise anyone.
But
Ryan Lizza points out something even more interesting, when Miers states:
Earlier this year, I received notice that my dues for the District of Columbia Bar were delinquent and as a result my ability to practice law in D.C. had been suspended. I immediately sent the dues in to remedy the delinquency. The nonpayment was not intentioned, and I corrected the situation upon receiving the letter.
Lizza notes: "I guess we can knock 'details-oriented' off her ever-shrinking list of qualifications."
Hotline On Call has more observations from the questionnaire.
Update: A
Political Wire reader writes: "I assume she was still licensed in Texas. If so, as a federal employee practicing in federal courts, it may be that the D.C. license was unnecessary."
It's been a busy few days at
Political Wire. If you haven't visited regularly, make sure to check out our
most recent headlines to see if you missed anything.
And for some great political discussion, check out
The Cloakroom.
Contributions to New York Gov. George Patakiís (R) PAC ìfell off sharply after he announced this summer that he would not seek a fourth term as governor,î according to the
New York Times. ìLobbyists said that the diminished fund-raising could reflect the fact that he is now perceived as a lame duck, or could simply show that he has slowed the pace of fund-raising as he weighs a possible run for president.î
A handful of House members ìsharply scaled back their fundraising in the third quarter of the year,î
The Hill reports. ìThe lower-than-expected campaign figures raise questions about whether these members will seek another term and, if not, whether their exit would lead to hotly contested open seats.î
Included in this list of possible retirees are Reps. Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY), David Price (D-NC), Sam Farr (D-CA), and Joel Hefley (R-CO).
In the 2006 Colorado gubernatorial race, Bill Ritter (D) leads both of his most likely Republican rivals, according to a new
Mason-Dixon poll. Ritter lead Marc Holtzman (R), 41% to 30%, and tops Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO), 42% to 36%.
A new
Public Opinion Strategies poll shows Beauprez leading Holtzman in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 47% to 13%.
The poll also finds that 80% of voters have heard of Beauprez, while Holtzman had only a 44% recognition rate.
Meanwhile, the
Denver Post reports that Rep. John Salazar (D-CO) is also looking at entering the race on the Democratic side.
"I am... No, no, no. I am preparing for 2006."
-- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), quoted by the
AP, when asked during a taping of the Ellen DeGeneres Show last week, "So you are preparing for 2008?"
"In a potentially embarrassing (albeit minor) gaffe," a recent fundraising letter from Jeanine Pirro's (R) U.S. Senate campaign was addressed to none other than Mrs. Hillary Clinton, the woman she's running against, the
New York Times reports.
"Dear Hillary, You and I have been through a lot over the years. I need you and every New Yorker on my side. But most importantly in this difficult campaign, I need people like you who I can trust."
"The Clinton campaign, which released the letter to reporters, said the misdirected solicitation could explain the Pirro campaign's anemic fund-raising pace."
Said Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson: "It's not surprising that they're having trouble raising money."
Rep. Tom DeLay's (R-TX) attorney charged that District Attorney Ronnie Earle "tried to coerce a guilty plea from" his client "for a misdemeanor," but
indicted him instead when DeLay refused to cooperate, the
Houston Chronicle reports. "Earle made the plea offer in the context of DeLay keeping his House leadership post."
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) visited Virginia last night to help Democratic congressional candidates but gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine (D) planned "to stay as far away from Kerry as possible," writes
Washington Post reporter Michael D. Shear.
"'Oh, is that tonight?'" was the basic message from the Kaine camp."
We've
mentioned it before, but
The Hill runs a brief mention of
Politics the Wellstone Way by Jeff Blodgett, a former top aide to the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN). The book is "a training manual for liberal candidates and activists to wage successful campaigns."
Blodgett, "who ran Wellstoneís Minnesota office for six years and managed each of his three Senate campaigns," says the book "is an outgrowth of the Camp Wellstone training programs founded by Blodgett and Wellstoneís two surviving sons, David and Mark."
When things go wrong at the White House, the first person blamed is usually not the president but his chief of staff. So it's not surprising that the
New York Times runs a piece this morning highlighting the recent missteps of Andrew Card.
"The confluence of crises, all running through Mr. Card's suite just steps from the Oval Office, has some critics asking whether he needs to clean house or assert himself more forcefully - or at least consider a course correction before Mr. Bush is downgraded permanently to lame duck status."
Card's "reputation as an effective steward of the executive bureaucracy has become harder to defend in light of recent events. Some critics of the administration ask whether previous chiefs of staff - imperious figures like James A. Baker III or Donald T. Regan - would have let so many problems accumulate."
President Bush's job approval rating "has slipped to 39%, the lowest measure of his presidency," according to a
USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll.
"At the same time, job approval for Congress, which has a Republican majority, has fallen to 29%. That is its lowest level since 1994, the year Democrats lost control of the Senate and House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years."
Polling Report shows Bush's approval numbers from all the latest major polls.
When the
New York Times runs a front page piece on a politician's governing style that closely mimics the opening chapter of your book, I suppose one should be flattered.
That's what I thought this morning reading the
New York Times piece on New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's (R) governing style. Compare the first few paragraphs to the
introductory chapter of my book,
You Won - Now What? and see what you think.
Of course, the theme of the newly-elected official facing the daunting challenge of governing is not exactly new. Most political junkies will recognize a similar scene at the end of the 1972 movie,
The Candidate starring Robert Redford.
"As the investigation into the leak of a CIA agent's name hurtles to an apparent conclusion, special prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald has zeroed in on the role of Vice President Cheney's office, according to lawyers familiar with the case and government officials," the
Washington Post reports. "The prosecutor has assembled evidence that suggests Cheney's long-standing tensions with the CIA contributed to the unmasking of operative Valerie Plame."
However, the
AP reports that Cheney's chief of staff, Scooter Libby, may not have known Valerie Plame was an undercover CIA agent.
With three weeks until the Virginia gubernatorial election, Tim Kaine (D) and Jerry Kilgore (R) are in a very close race. A new
SurveyUSA poll shows Kaine leading 47% to 45%, with Russell Potts (I) at 4%.
However, the momentum is clearly with Kaine. In 4 polls since 6/30/05, Kilgore has steadily declined, going from a 10-point advantage in June to a 2-point deficit today.
