Nate Silver doesn’t think Rick Perry’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich in
the Republican presidential primary will give Gingrich a direct boost,
but that’s not to say it doesn’t help advance the emerging “Newt-mentum”
narrative.
“Among these voters, second-place support was about
evenly divided among three candidates: Mr. Gingrich was listed by 22
percent of Mr. Perry’s supporters as their second choice, but Rick
Santorum and Mitt Romney were each listed as the second choice by 20
percent of Mr. Perry’s voters… And some of the ground that Mr.
Gingrich has gained there since Monday night’s debate has come at Mr.
Perry’s expense, so the voters who were most amenable to switching to
Mr. Gingrich may already have done so… Instead, the main way this may
aid Mr. Gingrich is by generating a strong headline for his campaign and
entrenching the sense among the news media that he has the momentum in
the race. That could be helpful to Mr. Gingrich given the complex story
lines of the past few days.”
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