Charlie Cook: “Leading Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists privately say that the Obama lead is around 4 or 5 points and is neither widening nor narrowing. The convention bounces have dissipated, but Romney’s negatives remain quite high and are not diminishing. In the Gallup three-week super-samples–almost 10,000 interviews–the percentage of Democrats saying that they will definitely vote has moved up to the point that it is now virtually tied with Republicans.”

