Why Romney Thought He Would Win

The New Republic obtained the final internal polling numbers from Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign for six key states, along with
additional breakdowns of the data, which were prepared by the
campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse.

“The first thing you notice is that New Hampshire and Colorado are pretty
far off the mark. In New Hampshire, the final internal polling average
has Romney up 3.5 points, whereas he lost by 5.6. In Colorado, the final
internal polling average has Romney up 2.5 points; he lost by 5.4… The Iowa number is also questionable, showing the
race tied even though Romney ended up losing by almost 6 points.”

“Together, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa go most of the way toward
explaining why the Romney campaign believed it was so well-positioned. When combined with North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia–the trio of
states the Romney campaign assumed were largely in the bag–Romney would
bank 267 electoral votes, only three shy of the magic number.”